CW3E AR Update: 19 March Outlook

March 19, 2018

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Update on Atmospheric River Forecast to Impact California Next Week

• Several changes have occurred in the forecast for the AR that may impact CA this week
• GFS Ensemble members have continued to converge on Coastal AR conditions
• While there is more agreement between GFS Ensemble members there are still numerous changes from model run to model run, introducing several uncertainties in the impacts associated with this event

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-102 hour GFS forecast Valid 1200 UTC 18 March – 1800 UTC 23 March 2018

Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, and B. Kawzenuk; 1 PM PT Monday 19 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental