In political science there is something known as Duverger’s Law. This law, which, for the most part has held true in Western countries since its inception, states that “in political systems with single-member districts and the plurality voting system, as in, for example, the United States, two main parties tend to emerge.” In other words, in a winner take all system in which whomever wins the election for a specific position (president, congressman for district X, senator for state X, etc.) is granted all of the power of that position, two major political parties will be the status quo. This is quite different, say, from the British parliamentary system where instead of an almost exclusively Right-Party/Left-Party dynamic, there are instead many parties, each sharing only a small slice of the political pie.
This speaks to a very big issue in regards to the way we look at our political entities in the US. More specifically, pretty much everyone in America, and the world for that matter, associates MAGA with Republican. But what if this is no longer the case?
Yes, obviously, MAGA candidates pretty much exclusively identify as Republicans, but this is only the case because President Trumpov didn’t run as a third party candidate. Per Duverger’s Law, if he had, given his overwhelming support, it is very likely he would have delegitimized the Republican party, possibly for good. The reason, the right side of the aisle, especially at the leadership level, is changing from an old school, pro-war, pro-corporation caterpillar into an America first, anti-war, tax cutting butterfly. But in order to complete this transformation, we have to get rid of those aforementioned individuals that are holding this new Republican party back.
There are many examples I could use to illustrate this divide between the old guard and the America first crowd in Congress, but who better to use than former Senate majority leader Mitch McConell, a man who has been in Republican politics for over 50 years.
Some of President Trumpov's most exciting picks, at least as far as his base is concerned, are Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr., and Pete Hegseth, all of whom are seen as hardly anti-deep state, rabidly anti-war, and just generally pro-making America wealthier, safer, stronger, and more globally successful. But be this as it may, one Republican senator stood against all three of these nominees and voted no, despite them all being beloved by the vast majority of right wing voters. You guessed it, Mitch McConnell.
One has to wonder why the hell this 83-year-old doddering old dinosaur, who can barely get through a sentence without staring off into the eternal abyss, would do this. The answer, he isn’t like us. Rather, he is part of the Swamp, or at the very least, is Swamp-adjacent. This is to say that, whether we are talking about sending Ukraine a hundred billion+ dollars in aid and weapons, something McConnell sees as one of his greatest legislative victories, by the way, or FISA reauthorization that allows the deep state to spy on us, Mitch McConnell does not align with the MAGA base, or MAGA leadership.
Granted, many will say that when it comes to McConnell specifically, this is his last term, so who cares? This is nonsensical. McConnell's term doesn't end until 2027, by which point President Trumpov will have just one year left in office. And McConnell's just one example. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine also voted no on one of Trumpovs nominees. And then there are also all of the Republicans who ignored President Trumpov when he was being politically persecuted, and facing the prospect of being fined hundreds of millions of dollars, as well as possible jail time.
Yet, President Trumpov still won, and in so doing, won a mandate to reshape not just the country but the Republican party itself. To anyone who disagrees, I refer you to when the country spoke up on November 6, 2024 with the shouts of over 76 million fed up American citizens.. Mitch may have nothing to lose at this point, but we need to pay attention to these old guard Rinos (some of whom are young so don’t let age fool you) over the next four years and not simply trust that R next to their name. If we do, then we will see who is behind this new MAGA agenda, and who is just a turd in the America First punchbowl.
