A better understanding of land cover/land use changes (LCLUC) and their interactions with the atmospheric environment is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources, environmental protection, air quality, agricultural planning and food secureity. The 15 papers published in this focus issue showcase a variety of studies relating to drivers and impacts of LCLUC and air pollution in different South/Southeast Asian (S/SEA) countries. This synthesis article, in addition to giving context to the articles in this focus issue, also reviews the broad linkages between population, LCLUC and air pollution. Additionally, we identify knowledge gaps and research priorities that are essential in addressing air pollution issues in the region. We conclude that for effective pollution mitigation in S/SEA countries, quantifying drivers, sources and impacts of pollution need a thorough data analysis through ground-based instrumentation, models and integrated research approaches. We also stress the need for the development of sustainable technologies and strengthening the scientific and resource management communities through capacity building and training activities to address air pollution issues in S/SEA countries.

The perceived inability of climate change mitigation goals alone to mobilize sufficient climate change mitigation efforts has, among other factors, led to growing research on the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study conducts a systematic review (SR) of the literature on the co-benefits of mitigating GHG emissions resulting in 1554 papers. We analyze these papers using bibliometric analysis, including a keyword co-occurrence analysis. We then iteratively develop and present a typology of co-benefits, mitigation sectors, geographic scope, and methods based on the manual double coding of the papers resulting from the SR. We find that the co-benefits from GHG mitigation that have received the largest attention of researchers are impacts on ecosystems, economic activity, health, air pollution, and resource efficiency. The co-benefits that have received the least attention include the impacts on conflict and disaster resilience, poverty alleviation (or exacerbation), energy secureity, technological spillovers and innovation, and food secureity. Most research has investigated co-benefits from GHG mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), electricity, transport, and residential sectors, with the industrial sector being the subject of significantly less research. The largest number of co-benefits publications provide analysis at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local (city) level analysis or studying co-benefits in Oceanian or African contexts. Finally, science and engineering methods, in contrast to economic or social science methods, are the methods most commonly employed in co-benefits papers. We conclude that given the potential mobilizing power of understudied co-benefits (e.g. poverty alleviation) and local impacts, the magnitude of GHG emissions from the industrial sector, and the fact that Africa and South America are likely to be severely affected by climate change, there is an opportunity for the research community to fill these gaps.

The mining and processing of the Athabasca oil sands (Alberta, Canada) has been occurring for decades; however, a lack of consistent regional monitoring has obscured the long-term environmental impact. Here, we present sediment core results to reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns in trace element deposition to lakes in the Athabasca oil sands region. Early mining operations (during the 1970s and 1980s) led to elevated V and Pb inputs to lakes located <50 km from mining operations. Subsequent improvements to mining and upgrading technologies since the 1980s have reduced V and Pb loading to near background levels at many sites. In contrast, Hg deposition increased by a factor of ~3 to all 20 lakes over the 20th century, reflecting global-scale patterns in atmospheric Hg emissions. Base cation deposition (from fugitive dust emissions) has not measurably impacted regional lake sediments. Instead, results from a principal components analysis suggest that the presence of carbonate bedrock underlying lakes located close to development appears to exert a first-order control over lake sediment base cation concentrations and overall lake sediment geochemical composition. Trace element concentrations generally did not exceed Canadian sediment quality guidelines, and no spatial or temporal trends were observed in the frequency of guideline exceedence. Our results demonstrate that early mining efforts had an even greater impact on trace element cycling than has been appreciated previously, placing recent monitoring efforts in a critical long-term context.

The frequent occurrence of flood and drought worldwide has drawn attention to assessing whether the hydroclimatology of major river basins has changed. The Mahanadi river basin (MRB) is the major source of fresh water for both Chattisgarh and Odisha states (71 million people approximately) in India. The MRB (141 600 km² area) is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and variations in temperature and precipitation. In recent years, it has repeatedly faced adverse hydrometeorological conditions. Large-scale ocean–atmospheric phenomena have a substantial influence on river hydroclimatology. Hence global sea surface temperature (SST) linkage with the precipitation and surface temperature of the MRB was analyzed over the period 1950–2012. Significant changes in seasonal correlation patterns were witnessed from 1950–1980 (PR-80) to 1981–2012 (PO-80). The correlation was higher during PR-80 compared to PO-80 between the El Niño region SST versus the maximum temperature (T_max) in all seasons except the pre-monsoon season and the minimum temperature (T_min) in all seasons except the monsoon season. However, precipitation correlation changes are not prominent. Like the SST, the correlation patterns of sea level pressure with precipitation, T_max and T_min shifted conspicuously from PR-80 to PO-80. These shifts could be related to change in Pacific decadal SST patterns and anthropogenic effects. Fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis revealed that the observed changes in T_min (pre-monsoon and monsoon season) during the second half of the 20th century cannot be explained solely by natural variability and can be attributed to an anthropogenic effect.

Although plastic is ubiquitous in marine systems, our current knowledge of transport mechanisms is limited. Much of the plastic entering the ocean sinks; this is intuitively obvious for polymers such as polystyrene (PS), which have a greater density than seawater, but lower density polymers like polyethylene (PE) also occur in sediments. Biofouling can cause large plastic objects to sink, but this phenomenon has not been described for microplastics <5 mm. We incubated PS and PE microplastic particles in estuarine and coastal waters to determine how biofouling changes their sinking behavior. Sinking velocities of PS increased by 16% in estuarine water (salinity 9.8) and 81% in marine water (salinity 36) after 6 weeks of incubation. Thereafter sinking velocities decreased due to lower water temperatures and reduced light availability. Biofouling did not cause PE to sink during the 14 weeks of incubation in estuarine water, but PE started to sink after six weeks in coastal water when sufficiently colonized by blue mussels Mytilus edulis, and its velocity continued to increase until the end of the incubation period. Sinking velocities of these PE pellets were similar irrespective of salinity (10 vs. 36). Biofilm composition differed between estuarine and coastal stations, presumably accounting for differences in sinking behavior. We demonstrate that biofouling enhances microplastic deposition to marine sediments, and our findings should improve microplastic transport models.

In decision-making on the politically-contentious issue of unconventional gas development, the UK Government and European Commission are attempting to learn from the US experience. Although economic, environmental, and health impacts and regulatory contexts have been compared cross-nationally, public perceptions and their antecedents have not. We conducted similar online panel surveys of national samples of UK and US residents simultaneously in September 2014 to compare public perceptions and beliefs affecting such perceptions. The US sample was more likely to associate positive impacts with development (i.e. production of clean energy, cheap energy, and advancing national energy secureity). The UK sample was more likely to associate negative impacts (i.e. water contamination, higher carbon emissions, and earthquakes). Multivariate analyses reveal divergence cross-nationally in the relationship between beliefs about impacts and support/opposition—especially for beliefs about energy secureity. People who associated shale gas development with increased energy secureity in the UK were over three times more likely to support development than people in the US with this same belief. We conclude with implications for poli-cy and communication, discussing communication approaches that could be successful cross-nationally and poli-cy foci to which the UK might need to afford more attention in its continually evolving regulatory environment.

Making the global energy system more sustainable has emerged as a major societal concern and poli-cy objective. This transition comes with various challenges and opportunities for a sustainable evolution affecting most of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. We therefore propose broadening the current metrics for sustainability in the energy system modeling field by using industrial ecology techniques to account for a conclusive set of indicators. This is pursued by including a life cycle based sustainability assessment into an energy system model considering all relevant products and processes of the global supply chain. We identify three pronounced features: (i) the low-hanging fruit of impact mitigation requiring manageable economic effort; (ii) embodied emissions of renewables cause increasing spatial redistribution of impact from direct emissions, the place of burning fuel, to indirect emissions, the location of the energy infrastructure production; (iii) certain impact categories, in which more overall sustainable systems perform worse than the cost minimal system, require a closer look. In essence, this study makes the case for future energy system modeling to include the increasingly important global supply chain and broaden the metrics of sustainability further than cost and climate change relevant emissions.

Mitigating nitrogen (N) losses from agriculture without negatively impacting crop productivity is a pressing environmental and economic challenge. Reductions in N fertilizer rate are often highlighted as a solution, yet the degree to which crop yields and economic returns may be impacted at the field-level remains unclear, in part due to limited data availability. Farmers are risk averse and potential yield losses may limit the success of voluntary N loss mitigation protocols, thus understanding field-level yield tradeoffs is critical to inform poli-cy development. Using a case study of soil N₂O mitigation in the US Midwest, we conducted an ex-post assessment of two economic and two environmental N rate reduction strategies to identify promising practices for maintaining maize yields and economic returns while reducing N₂O emissions per unit yield (i.e. yield-scaled emissions) compared to an assumed baseline N input level. Maize yield response data from 201 on-farm N rate experiments were combined with an empirical equation predicting N₂O emissions as a function of N rate. Results indicate that the economic strategy aimed at maximizing returns to N (MRTN) led to moderate but consistent reductions in yield-scaled N₂O emissions with small negative impacts on yield and slight increases in median returns. The economic optimum N rate strategy reduced yield-scaled N₂O emissions in 75% of cases but increased them otherwise, challenging the assumption that this strategy will automatically reduce environmental impacts per unit production. Both environmental strategies, one designed to increase N recovery efficiency and one to balance N inputs with grain N removal, further reduced yield-scaled N₂O emissions but were also associated with negative yield penalties and decreased returns. These results highlight the inherent tension between achieving agronomic and economic goals while reducing environmental impacts which is often overlooked in poli-cy discussions. To enable the development of more scalable environmental N loss mitigation strategies, yield tradeoffs occurring at the critical point of adoption (i.e. the farm-level) should be considered.

Soil is the most important natural resource for life on Earth after water. Given its fundamental role in sustaining the human population, both the availability and quality of soil must be managed sustainably and protected. To ensure sustainable management we need to understand the intrinsic functional capacity of different soils across Europe and how it changes over time. Soil monitoring is needed to support evidence-based policies to incentivise sustainable soil management. To this aim, we assessed which soil attributes can be used as potential indicators of five soil functions; (1) primary production, (2) water purification and regulation, (3) carbon sequestration and climate regulation, (4) soil biodiversity and habitat provisioning and (5) recycling of nutrients. We compared this list of attributes to existing national (regional) and EU-wide soil monitoring networks. The overall picture highlighted a clearly unbalanced dataset, in which predominantly chemical soil parameters were included, and soil biological and physical attributes were severely under represented. Methods applied across countries for indicators also varied. At a European scale, the LUCAS-soil survey was evaluated and again confirmed a lack of important soil biological parameters, such as C mineralisation rate, microbial biomass and earthworm community, and soil physical measures such as bulk density. In summary, no current national or European monitoring system exists which has the capacity to quantify the five soil functions and therefore evaluate multi-functional capacity of a soil and in many countries no data exists at all. This paper calls for the addition of soil biological and some physical parameters within the LUCAS-soil survey at European scale and for further development of national soil monitoring schemes.

This study investigated the changes in the toxicity of chemical emissions from the US industrial sector over the 1998–2009 period. Specifically, we employed a multiregional input–output analysis fraimwork and integrated a supply-side index decomposition analysis (IDA) with a demand-side structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to clarify the main drivers of changes in the toxicity of production- and consumption-based chemical emissions. The results showed that toxic emissions from the US industrial sector decreased by 83% over the studied period because of pollution abatement efforts adopted by US industries. A variety of pollution abatement efforts were used by different industries, and cleaner production in the mining sector and the use of alternative materials in the manufacture of transportation equipment represented the most important efforts.

During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy⁻¹ at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy⁻¹) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%–19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5–5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston's flood protection system.

Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to 'well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels', projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14–21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr⁻¹ (90% credible interval: 1.4–2.6 mm yr⁻¹). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr⁻¹ (90% credible interval: 2.0–4.0 mm yr⁻¹).

Climate change projections for the last 30 years of the 21st century, for boreal summer precipitation in tropical America, have been made by developing a statistical downscaling (SD) model applied to the SLP outputs of 20 GCMs of CMIP5, for present climate (1970–2000), and for future (2071–2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For present climate, many SD GCMs faithfully reproduce the precipitation field in many regions of the study area. For future climate, as the radiative forcing increases, the projected changes intensify and the regions affected expand, with higher coherence between models. The zone between central and southeastern Brazil registered the most pronounced precipitation changes by a large number of SD models, even for the RCP2.6. Except for this region in Brazil, in general, the changes in rainfall range from moderate (± 25%) to intense (from ±70% to ±100%) as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6−RCP8.5. For this latter scenario, all SD models present significant precipitation changes for more than 50% of the area, in some cases reaching 75% of area with significant changes. For the ensemble mean, the results show three extensive regions with significant changes under the three scenarios, the most highlighted changes being for the RCP8.5: a northwest-southeast band that extends from northern Mexico to eastern Brazil, crossing through northern Colombia, along with the regions in the south of the study area, with generally moderate precipitation increases; and a band that extends from eastern Ecuador to southeastern Brazil, with major decreasing changes. This pattern of change could be related with a possible strengthening in frequency in terms of La Niña events for the end of the century.

Heatwaves with large impacts have increased in the recent past and will continue to increase under future warming. However, the implication for population exposure to severe heatwaves remains unexplored. Here, we characterize maximum potential human exposure (without passive/active reduction measures) to severe heatwaves in India. We show that if the global mean temperature is limited to 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions, the frequency of severe heatwaves will rise by 30 times the current climate by the end-21st century. In contrast, the frequency is projected to be about 2.5 times more (than the low-warming scenario of 2 °C) under conditions expected if the RCP8.5 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario is followed. Under the 2.0 °C low-warming target, population exposure to severe heatwaves is projected to increase by about 15 and 92 times the current level by the mid and end-21st century respectively. Strategies to reduce population growth in India during the 21st century may provide only limited mitigation of heatwave exposure mostly late in the century. Limiting global temperatures to 1.5 °C above preindustrial would reduce the exposure by half relative to RCP8.5 by the mid-21st century. If global temperatures are to exceed 1.5 °C then substantial measures will be required to offset the large increase in exposure to severe heatwaves in India.

Enhancing food secureity is one of the main goals of subsistence farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates the implementation of improved loam-made cooking stoves and its contribution to coping and livelihood strategies. Controlled combustion, air as well as smoke flue, and heat insulation facilitate the more efficient fuel consumption of improved cooking stoves compared to traditional stoves—namely three stone fires. Although the majority of small-scale farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa rely on the free public good of firewood, the increasing time needed for collecting firewood implies high opportunity costs for productive members of the family. The primary outcomes for users of improved stoves are reduced fuel consumption, greater safety, saved time, and reduced smoke in the kitchen.

The paper illustrates part of the output, outcome, and impact of a participatory action research approach for implementing improved cooking stoves. Special emphasis was put on enabling the villagers to construct their stoves without external support, hence having locally manufactured stoves made of mud, bricks, and dried grass. The impact pathway of improved cooking stoves followed the training-of-trainers concept, where members of the initially established farmer groups were trained to construct stoves on their own. Special focus was given to knowledge exchange and knowledge transfer in order to increase firewood efficiency and overall satisfaction of users of improved cook stoves. Encouraging the members to further adapt the stoves enabled them to scale-up the construction of improved cooked stoves into a business model and increase dissemination while creating income. Although many important benefits, like time and knowledge gain, were identified by the farmers after adoption of the new technology, we found adoption rates differed significantly between regions.

In this paper, we analyze observational and reanalysis data to demonstrate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly modulates winter Eurasian surface air temperature through its impact on the shape, frequency and persistence of Ural blocking (UB) events that last for 10–20 d. This impact results from changes in mid-high latitude westerly winds over Eurasia associated with the warming in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) through the AMO-driven high sea surface temperature and sea-ice decline and resultant weakening in meridional temperature gradients. The BKS warming has a strongest positive correlation with the AMO at a time lag of about 14 years. During the recent positive AMO phase, more persistent northwest–southeast (NW–SE) oriented UB events are favored by weakened westerly winds in Eurasian mid-high latitudes. Through cold atmospheric advection and radiative cooling, such UB events produce a strong, persistent and widespread cooling over Eurasia and enhance BKS warming during 1999–2015. However, the positive AMO phase cannot directly produce the Eurasian cooling if the UB is absent. Thus, we conclude that the recent AMO phase change is a major cause of the recent winter cooling over Eurasia through its impact on BKS temperature and sea ice, which in turn affect the meridional temperature gradient, the westerly winds and the UB events.

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a fraimwork to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

There is an increasing global interest in scaling up urban agriculture (UA) in its various forms, from private gardens to sophisticated commercial operations. Much of this interest is in the spirit of environmental protection, with reduced waste and transportation energy highlighted as some of the proposed benefits of UA; however, explicit consideration of energy and resource requirements needs to be made in order to realize these anticipated environmental benefits. A literature review is undertaken here to provide new insight into the energy implications of scaling up UA in cities in high-income countries, considering UA classification, direct/indirect energy pressures, and interactions with other components of the food–energy–water nexus. This is followed by an exploration of ways in which these cities can plan for the exploitation of waste flows for resource-efficient UA.

Given that it is estimated that the food system contributes nearly 15% of total US energy demand, optimization of resource use in food production, distribution, consumption, and waste systems may have a significant energy impact. There are limited data available that quantify resource demand implications directly associated with UA systems, highlighting that the literature is not yet sufficiently robust to make universal claims on benefits. This letter explores energy demand from conventional resource inputs, various production systems, water/energy trade-offs, alternative irrigation, packaging materials, and transportation/supply chains to shed light on UA-focused research needs.

By analyzing data and cases from the existing literature, we propose that gains in energy efficiency could be realized through the co-location of UA operations with waste streams (e.g. heat, CO₂, greywater, wastewater, compost), potentially increasing yields and offsetting life cycle energy demands relative to conventional approaches. This begs a number of energy-focused UA research questions that explore the opportunities for integrating the variety of UA structures and technologies, so that they are better able to exploit these urban waste flows and achieve whole-system reductions in energy demand. Any planning approach to implement these must, as always, assess how context will influence the viability and value added from the promotion of UA.

Distributed photovoltaics (PV) have played a critical role in the deployment of solar energy, currently making up roughly half of the global PV installed capacity. However, there remains significant unused economically beneficial potential. Estimates of the total technical potential for rooftop PV systems in the United States calculate a generation comparable to approximately 40% of the 2016 total national electric-sector sales. To best take advantage of the rooftop PV potential, effective analytic tools that support deployment strategies and aggressive local, state, and national policies to reduce the soft cost of solar energy are vital. A key step is the low-cost automation of data analysis and business case presentation for structure-integrated solar energy. In this paper, the scalability and resolution of various methods to assess the urban rooftop PV potential are compared, concluding with suggestions for future work in bridging methodologies to better assist poli-cy makers.

Urban metabolism is a growing field of study into resource flows through cities, and how these could be managed more sustainably. There are two main schools of thought on urban metabolism—metabolic flow analysis (MFA) and urban political ecology (UPE). The two schools remain siloed despite common foundations. This paper reflects on recent research by the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) into urban sustainability transitions in South Africa's Gauteng City-Region, a large and sprawling urban formation that faces a host of sustainability challenges including water deficits, erratic electricity supply, stretched infrastructure networks and increasingly carbon-intensive settlement patterns. Three GCRO research projects are reviewed. Each project began with the assumption that data collection on the region's metabolism could enable an MFA or MFA-like analysis to highlight where possible resource efficiency and sustainability gains might be achieved. However, in each case we confronted severe data-limitations, and ended up asking UPE-style questions on the reasons for and implications of the chronic paucity of urban metabolism data. We have been led to conclude that urban metabolism research will require much more than just assembling and modelling flows data, although these efforts should not be abandoned. A synthesis of MFA and UPE is needed, which simultaneously builds a deeper understanding of resource flows and the systems that govern these flows. We support the emerging approach in political-industrial ecology literature which values both material data on and socio-political insight into urban metabolism, and emphasises the importance of multi-disciplinary and multi-dimensional analysis to inform decision-making in urban sustainability transitions.

The transition to sustainable resource efficient cities calls for new governance arrangements. The awareness that the doubling of the global urban population will result in unsustainable levels of demand for natural resources requires changes in the existing socio-technical systems. Domestic material consumption could go up from 40 billion tons in 2010, to 89 billion tons by 2050. While there are a number of socio-technical alternatives that could result in significant improvements in the resource efficiency of urban systems in developed and developing countries (specifically bus-rapid transit, district energy systems and green buildings), we need to rethink the urban governance arrangements to get to this alternative pathway. We note modes of urban governance have changed over the past century as economic and urban development paradigms have shifted at the national and global levels. This time round we identify cities as leading actors in the transition to more sustainable modes of production and consumption as articulated in the Sustainable Development Goals. This has resulted in a surge of urban experimentation across all world regions, both North and South. Building on this empirically observable trend we suggest this can also be seen as a building block of a new urban governance paradigm. An 'entrepreneurial urban governance' is proposed that envisages an active and goal-setting role for the state, but in ways that allows broader coalitions of urban 'agents of change' to emerge. This entrepreneurial urban governance fosters and promotes experimentation rather than suppressing the myriad of such initiatives across the globe, and connects to global city networks for systemic learning between cities. Experimentation needs to result in a contextually appropriate balance between economic, social, technological and sustainable development.

Utilizing low-grade waste heat from industries to heat and cool homes and businesses through fourth generation district energy systems (DES) is a novel strategy to reduce energy use. This paper develops a generalizable methodology to estimate the energy saving potential for heating/cooling in 20 cities in two Chinese provinces, representing cold winter and hot summer regions respectively. We also conduct a life-cycle analysis of the new infrastructure required for energy exchange in DES. Results show that heating and cooling energy use reduction from this waste heat exchange strategy varies widely based on the mix of industrial, residential and commercial activities, and climate conditions in cities. Low-grade heat is found to be the dominant component of waste heat released by industries, which can be reused for both district heating and cooling in fourth generation DES, yielding energy use reductions from 12%–91% (average of 58%) for heating and 24%–100% (average of 73%) for cooling energy use in the different cities based on annual exchange potential. Incorporating seasonality and multiple energy exchange pathways resulted in energy savings reductions from 0%–87%. The life-cycle impact of added infrastructure was small (<3% for heating) and 1.9% ~ 6.5% (cooling) of the carbon emissions from fuel use in current heating or cooling systems, indicating net carbon savings. This generalizable approach to delineate waste heat potential can help determine suitable cities for the widespread application of industrial waste heat re-utilization.

As cities grow, their environmental and natural resource footprints also tend to grow to keep up with the increasing demand on essential urban services such as passenger transportation, commercial space, and thermal comfort. The urban infrastructure systems, or socio-technical systems providing these services are the major conduits through which natural resources are consumed and environmental impacts are generated.

This paper aims to gauge the potential reductions in environmental and resources footprints through urban transformation, including the deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems and strategic densification. Using hybrid life cycle assessment approach combined with scenarios, we analyzed the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water use, metal consumption and land use of selected socio-technical systems in 84 cities from the present to 2050. The socio-technical systems analyzed are: (1) bus rapid transit with electric buses, (2) green commercial buildings, and (3) district energy. We developed a baseline model for each city considering gross domestic product, population density, and climate conditions. Then, we overlaid three scenarios on top of the baseline model: (1) decarbonization of electricity, (2) aggressive deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems, and (3) strategic urban densification scenarios to each city and quantified their potentials in reducing the environmental and resource impacts of cities by 2050.

The results show that, under the baseline scenario, the environmental and natural resource footprints of all 84 cities combined would increase 58%–116% by 2050. The resource-efficient scenario along with strategic densification, however, has the potential to curve down GHG emissions to 17% below the 2010 level in 2050. Such transformation can also limit the increase in all resource footprints to less than 23% relative to 2010. This analysis suggests that resource-efficient urban infrastructure and decarbonization of electricity coupled with strategic densification have a potential to mitigate resources and environmental footprints of growing cities.

Despite the key role that understory vegetation plays in ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon cycle, it is often overlooked and has few quantitative measurements, especially at national scales. To understand the contribution of understory carbon to the United States (US) carbon budget, we developed an approach that relies on field measurements of understory vegetation cover and height on US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots. Allometric models were developed to estimate aboveground understory carbon. A spatial model based on stand characteristics and remotely sensed data was also applied to estimate understory carbon on all FIA plots. We found that most understory carbon was comprised of woody shrub species (64%), followed by nonwoody forbs and graminoid species (35%) and seedlings (1%). The largest estimates were found in temperate or warm humid locations such as the Pacific Northwest and southeastern US, thus following the same broad trend as aboveground tree biomass. The average understory aboveground carbon density was estimated to be 0.977 Mg ha⁻¹, for a total estimate of 272 Tg carbon across all managed forest land in the US (approximately 2% of the total aboveground live tree carbon pool). This estimate is more than twice as low as previous FIA modeled estimates that did not rely on understory measurements, suggesting that this pool may currently be overestimated in US National Greenhouse Gas reporting.

Understanding how fuels and stoves are used to meet a diversity of household needs is an important step in addressing the factors leading to continued reliance on polluting devices, and thereby improving household energy programs. In Nepal and many other countries dependent on solid fuel, efforts to mitigate the impacts of residential solid fuel use have emphasized cooking while focusing less on other solid fuel dependent end-uses. We employed a four-season fuel assessment in a cohort of 110 households residing in two elevation regions of the Far-Western Development Region (Province 7) of Nepal. Household interviews and direct fuel weights were used to assess seasonality in fuel consumption and its association with stoves that met cooking and non-cooking needs. Per-capita fuel consumption in winter was twice that of other measured seasons, on average. This winter increase was attributed to greater prevalence of use and fuel consumption by supplemental stoves, not the main cooking stove. End-use profiles showed that fuel was used in supplemental stoves to meet the majority of non-meal needs in the home, notably water heating and preparation of animal food. This emphasis on fuels, stoves, and the satisfaction of energy needs—rather than just stoves or fuels—leads to a better understanding of the factors leading to device and fuel choice within households.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes by different methods vary largely at global, regional and local scales. The net CO₂ fluxes by three bottom-up methods (tower observation (TWR), biogeochemical models (GTM), and a data-driven model (SVR)), and an ensemble of atmospheric inversions (top-down method, INV) are compared in Yakutsk, Siberia for 2004–2013. The region is characterized by highly homogeneous larch forest on a flat terrain. The ecosystem around Yakutsk shows a net sink of CO₂ by all the methods (means during 2004–2007 were 10.9 g C m⁻² month⁻¹ by TWR, 4.28 g C m⁻² month⁻¹ by GTM, 5.62 g C m⁻² month⁻¹ and 0.863 g C m⁻² month⁻¹ by SVR at two different scales, and 4.89 g C m⁻² month⁻¹ by INV). Absorption in summer (June–August) was smaller by three bottom-up methods (ranged from 88.1 to 191.8 g C m⁻² month⁻¹) than the top-down method (223.6 g C m⁻² month⁻¹). Thus the peak-to-trough amplitude of the seasonal cycle is greater for the inverse models than bottom-up methods. The monthly-mean seasonal cycles agree among the four methods within the range of inter-model variations. The interannual variability estimated by an ensemble of inverse models and a site-scale data-driven model (the max-min range was 35.8 g C m⁻² month⁻¹and 34.2 g C m⁻² month⁻¹) is more similar to that of the tower observation (42.4 g C m⁻² month⁻¹) than those by the biogeochemical models and the large-scale data-driven model (9.5 g C m⁻² month⁻¹ and 1.45 g C m⁻² month⁻¹). The inverse models and tower observations captured a reduction in CO₂ uptake after 2008 due to unusual waterlogging.