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FXHW60 PHFO 230144 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 344 PM HST Sun Dec 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades return for the first half of the week bringing a modest increase in showers windward and mauka. Light winds then give way to a land and sea breeze pattern with afternoon clouds and isolated showers over island interiors during the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Nascent trades have begun building into the forecast area in response to approaching mid-level ridging. This is evidenced by emerging light NNE to NE winds at several windward stations. Elsewhere, however, sea breezes will remain established until this evening. The lead edge of building surface high pressure manifests as a shallow moisture boundary approaching Kauai that will bring increased showers to windward and mauka locales as trades strengthen late tonight. The remainder of the state will remain on the dry side as pressure rises bring a return to breezy trade winds. High pressure then continues its eastward trek eventually returning the islands to a weakened trade wind state for the second half of the week. Winds then veer to the SE in response to a weakening front approaching from the northwest. This will favor a return to a land and sea breeze pattern over the western half of the state. Dry and benign weather prevails for the forseeable future. && .AVIATION... Light winds continue into tonight, with trade winds returning late tonight. Sea breeze clouds and spotty showers inland will persist through the evening, then clear as land breezes briefly develop. Low clouds and showers will start to favor windward and mauka areas late tonight as trades return. VFR will prevail, but brief MVFR is possible with passing showers. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... Hazardous marine conditions will persist into Monday due to an extra large northwest swell. Observations at the offshore buoys northwest of Kauai show a 17-20 foot swell appearing to have leveled off this morning with the peak of this swell expected to continue through sunset, then gradually ease late tonight through Tuesday. Resulting surf should reach giant levels, in excess of 40 feet (faces) along coastlines with the highest exposure. Heights could hover at or above warning levels into Monday before lowering to advisory levels by Tuesday. Will determine tonight whether to extend the warning through Monday, or go with a High Surf Advisory for those exposed north and west facing shores. Possible significant coastal impacts will including considerable beach erosion along exposed shorelines and potential overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways and properties. Mariners should also anticipate hazardous conditions, including strong currents and occasional breaking waves near harbor entrances, making transits potentially dangerous. A fast-moving surface high approaching from the northwest will lead to a rapid increase in northeast winds tonight, followed by fresh to strong trade winds as the high passes north of the state on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for seas exceeding 10 feet, and as winds increase, the SCA will be expanded to include wind-affected zones. Trades are expected to gradually decline and shift southeasterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as the high moves eastward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimal fire weather concerns at this time to relatively light winds and elevated RH. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward- Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kona-Kohala- Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island East-Big Island North. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay- && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Ahue MARINE...Foster

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