Tag: HAFS

Unveiling the innovative advancements in hurricane modeling

With an active hurricane season on the horizon, the need for reliable hurricane forecasting is at the forefront of our minds. Heightened sea surface temperatures, weakened vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to contribute to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. To predict these developing storms, meteorologists employ models that rely on current observations and mathematical calculations to predict a storm’s behavior and track. These models are complex and utilize inputs from a variety of sources including historic, numeric, oceanic, and atmospheric data to generate their predictions. 

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The Future of Hurricane Forecasting: Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

AOML’s Hurricane Modeling Group was founded in 2007 to advance hurricane forecast models through development and targeted research. From inception, the team has worked to improve NOAA’s hurricane modeling systems; first with the legacy Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) model, and now with its transition to the next generation model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).

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Five ways NOAA’s research improves hurricane forecasts

Researchers at NOAA seek new techniques to advance hurricane forecasts to better protect life and property. In preparation for the upcoming 2023 hurricane season, which begins June 1, scientists are accelerating the use of small uncrewed aircraft technologies and the collocation of observational ocean assets, among other advancements. Here are five ways that NOAA researchers are improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts:

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How do weak, misaligned tropical cyclones evolve towards alignment? A multi-case study using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

The ability to predict whether and when a tropical cyclone will become vertically aligned is critical for intensity change forecasts, as storms can intensify quickly after achieving an aligned structure. A recent study from researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies shows how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones containing different center locations with height, called misalignment, can develop a vertically aligned structure. This study works to improve forecasts of when this alignment might occur by identifying key times of the day and other tropical cyclone characteristics when alignment is likely.

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Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program

AOML's Hurricane Modeling & Prediction Program Creating Next Generation Hurricane Modeling Systems JUMP TO MODEL VIEWER OR SCROLL TO LEARN MORE Who We Are AOML’s Hurricane Modeling Group was founded in 2007 to advance hurricane forecast models through development and targeted research. Our scientists are from the diverse fields of meteorology, hurricane modeling, and computer [...]
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