Soil Moisture Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center has developed a soil moisture tool for the next 2 weeks based on the National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) model and are bias corrected against the last 30 days of observations by staff at CPC. Monthly and seasonal tools are based on the Constructed Analog on Soil Moisture (CAS). Note that both of these are only forecast tools. They may be used in making the official outlooks that go out to the public, but are not official forecasts in their own right. The GFS bias corrected ensemble forecasts (daily precipitation and temperature at 00Z & 12Z) for Week 1 and Week 2 are used to drive the soil moisture model.
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