Program for the 26th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

The Scripps Joint Institute for Marine Observations (JIMO and Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) are gratefully acknowledged for providing assistance in coordinating the local arrangements for this workshop.

Monday October 22, 2001

7:40-7:45 Welcome, James D. Laver, Acting Director, CPC

7:45-7:50 Opening Remarks, C. Kennel, Director, Scripps
                    John Roads, Scripps

SESSION 1: REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Chair: Jim Laver

7:50-8:10 REVIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF ENSO IN 2000-2001
V. Kousky

8:10-8:30 SUMMARY OF THE 2001 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: A CLIMATIC PERSPECTIVE
S. B. Goldenberg, C. Landsea and G. D. Bell

8:30-8:50 THE MAJOR INDEX CYCLE DURING WINTER 2001 AND ITS PREDICTION
K. M. Weickmann, M. Newman, C. Winkler, P. Sardeshmukh

8:50-9:10 A REVIEW OF FALL/WINTER OF 2000-01 AND THE ROLE OF THE SIBERIAN HIGH
Judah Cohen

9:10-9:30 ASSESSMENT OF THE 2001 CLIMATE AND WILDFIRE SEASON
T. J. Brown, B. L. Hall and P. M. Schlobohm

9:30-9:50 RELATIONSHIP OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGES TO TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL WEATHER FEATURES DURING SUMMER 2000 AND 2001.
R. Maddox, V. Holbrook, and L. Farfan

9:50-10:00 BREAK

SESSION 2: ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTIONS IN 2000-01AND BEYOND

Chair: Bob Livezey

10:00-10:20 SKILL OF CPC OFFICIAL OUTLOOKS
H. M. van den Dool, J. Hoopingarner

10:20-10:40 USING AN MRF "RE-FORECAST" DATASET TO ASSESS PREDICTABILITY AND IMPROVE FORECASTS
J. Whitaker and T. Hamill

10:40-11:00 VERIFICATION OF IRI'S SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
L. Goddard, A. G. Barnston and S. J. Mason

11:00-11:20 PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS WITH THE NEW NCEP CLIMATE GCM
J. E. Schemm, A. Kumar and M. Kanamitsu

11:20-11:40 THE 2000-2001 LA NINA PREDICTIONS OF THE ENSO TRIGGER MODEL
A. J. Clarke, S. Van Gorder

11:40-12:40 LUNCH
 

12:40-2:40  POSTER SESSION 1:

FORECASTING & DECADAL VARIABILITY
 

SESSION 3: FORECASTING

Chair: Jeff Whitaker

2:40-3:00 SPACE-TIME DOWNSCALING OF PROBABILISTIC SEASONAL FORECASTS WITH A "WEATHER GENERATOR"
D. Wilks

3:00-3:20 CPC FORECASTS, METHODS AND FUTURE
E. O'Lenic

3:20-3:40 DEVELOPMENTS IN MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTING AT THE MET OFFICE
B. Becker

3:40-3:50 BREAK

3:50-4:10 A NEW TWO-TIERED PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR NORTH AMERICA CLIMATE: HINDCAST SKILL
E. Yulaeva and N. Schneider

4:10-4:30 THE ROLE OF INITIAL AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR DYNAMICAL SEASONAL FORECASTING
T. J. Reichler, J. O. Roads, M. Kanamitsu

4:30-4:50 IRI'S MORE AUTOMATED CLIMATE PREDICTION SYSTEM
A. Barnston, Simon Mason, L. Goddard, B. Ragagapolan and D. Dewitt

4:50-5:10 DOES HIGHER SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO IN AGCM'S IMPLY HIGHER PREDICTIVE SKILL?
A. Kumar, Peitao Peng and M. Hoerling

5:10-5:30 SIMULATION AND PREDICTION FROM COLA GLOBAL COUPLED AND ANOMALY COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GCM
Y. Fan and B. Kirtman

5:30-5:50 OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NCEP SEASONAL FORECAST MODEL WITH HYBRID-PARALLELIZATION AND REDUCED GAUSSIAN GRID
H. Juang

5:50 Ice Breaker, Martin Johnson House (T29/Building #8840)
 

Tuesday October 23

SESSION 4: DECADAL VARIABILITY

Chair: Stanley Goldenberg

7:40-8:00 MECHANISMS OF MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE CHANGE
W. Gray

8:00-8:20 STRATOSPHERIC HARBINGERS OF ANOMALOUS WEATHER REGIMES
M. Baldwin and T. Dunkerton

8:20-8:40 ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTERTIME WEATHER THAT DERIVES FROM THE DYNAMICAL COUPLING BETWEEN THE TROPOSPHERIC AND STRATOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONS
D. Thompson, M. Baldwin, J. Wallace

8:40-9:00 THE ANNULAR MODE AS A FORCED RESPONSE TO DETERMINISTIC CLIMATE CHANGE
M. Hoerling, J. Whitaker, A. Kumar and J. Hurrell

9:00-9:20 RECENT TREND IN THE NAO AND ITS CONNECTION TO THE TROPICAL OCEANIC HEAT FLUX
A. Shabbar, K. Higuchi and C. Chen

9:20-9:40 CIRCUM-GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS, ENSO AND THE NAO
G. Branstator

9:40-9:50 BREAK
 

SESSION 4: DECADAL VARIABILITY, continued

Chair: Marty Hoerling

9:50-10:10 A SIMPLE MODEL OF TROPICAL ATLANTIC DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and J. C. H. Chiang

10:10-10:30 INTER-DECADAL VARIATIONS IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM TRACKS
E. Chang

10:30-10:50 WILL CALIFORNIA STREAMFLOW TRENDS TOWARD EARLY PEAK STREAMFLOW CONTINUE IN THE 21^ST CENTURY?
N. Miller, K. Bashford and E. Strem

10:50-11:10 ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
A. Tsonis, A. Hunt, J. Elsner

11:10-11:30 FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY
M. Chelliah

11:30-12:50 LUNCH
 

SESSION 5: INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY

Chair: Prashant Sardeshmukh

12:50-1:10 GETTING THE MOST FROM ENSO'S EFFECTS
P. Sardeshmukh, G. Compo and C. Penland

1:10-1:30 IMPACT OF SNOW VARIABILITY ON THE REMOTE RESPONSE TO ENSO OVER NORTH AMERICA
F. Yang, A. Kumar, W. Wang, H. Juang and M. Kanamitsu

1:30-1:50 THE TRANSITION SEASONS: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SST-FORCED MODES OF THE ATMOSPHERE
D. Straus and T. del Sole

1:50-2:10 THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE SOUTHERN MID-LATITUDES ON FORCING EXTREME EL-NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS
D. Stephens and M. Lamond

2:10-2:30 AN ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF DIFFERENCES IN CIRCULATION PATTERNS DURING THE EL NINO WINTERS OF 1983 AND 1998.
M. Suarez, S. Schubert and P. Pegion

2:30-2:40 BREAK
 

SESSION 5: INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY, continued

Chair: Max Suarez

2:40-3:00 THREE MODES OF INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE GREAT PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET
H. Helfand and S. Schubert

3:00-3:20 THE INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE GENESIS LOCATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
H. Chia and C. Ropelewski

3:20-3:40 THE SEASONAL CYCLE AND THE TERMINATION OF EL NINO
G. Vecchi and D. Harrison

3:40-4:00 A CLIMATOLOGY OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF THE ITCZ
C. Zhang and G. Gu

4:00-4:10 BREAK
 

SESSION 6: INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY

Chair: Bill Lau

4:10-4:30 ANNUALLY VARYING IMPACTS OF TROPICAL HEATING UPON EXTRA-TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY
M. Newman, P. Sardeshmukh and C. Winkler

4:30-4:50 ROLE OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IN A CASE OF EXTREME INTER-HEMISPHERIC ATMOSPHERIC MASS EXCHANGE
M. Carrerra and J. Gyakum

4:50-5:10 CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AND SEASONAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH AMERICA
H. Wang and R. Fu

5:10-5:30 SEASONAL AND EPISODE EFFECT IN THE STOCHASTIC MEMORY IN THE LOCAL CLIMATE SYSTEM
M. Timofeyeva, R. Craig, R. Livezey and W. Higgins
 

Wednesday October 24

SESSION 6: INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY, continued

Chair: R. Wayne Higgins

7:40-8:00 MADDEN-JULIAN VARIABILITY IN COUPLED MODELS
K. Sperber and CMIP co-authors

8:00-8:20 STATISTICAL REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
C. Jones, R. W. Higgins and J. Schemm

8:20-8:40 HYDROLOGICAL FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER
D. Myers and D. Waliser

8:40-9:00 DIAGNOSTICS AND STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSISTENT INTRA-SEASONAL SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTERS, 1950-2000
B. Lyon

9:00-9:20 POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
D. Waliser, K.M. Lau, W. Stern and C. Jones

9:20-9:40 SIMULATION OF THE INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION IN A COUPLED INTERMEDIATE MODEL
S. Kemball-Cook and B. Wang

9:40-9:50 BREAK
 

SESSION 7: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION

Chair: Chidong Zhang

9:50-10:10 ERROR GROWTH IN REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATION USING RSM
S. Chen and H. Juang

10:10-10:30 COMPARISON OF SOME STATISTICAL METHODS OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF ENSO
S. Mason and G. Mimmack

10:30-10:50 PREDICTABILITY OF LONG TERM DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES GREAT PLAINS
S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion

10:50-11:10 AN ANALYSIS OF ZONALLY-SYMMETRIC MODES OF INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY DURING BOREAL SUMMER
M. Kistler S. Schubert, A. Kumar,and M. Suarez

11:10-11:30 INVERSE MODELING OF A MULTIPLICATIVE STOCHASTIC SYSTEM
C. Penland

11:30-12:50 Lunch
 

12:50-2:50 POSTER SESSION 2:

DIAGNOSTICS AND MODELS
 

SESSION 7: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION, continued

Chair: Chidong Zhang

2:50-3:10 PREDICTABILITY OF SST-FORCED SIGNALS IN ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS OF MULTIPLE AGCMS DURING 1997-1998
K. Jin, I. Kang, S. Schubert and J. Lee

3:10-3:30 NORTH ATLANTIC SST FORCING OF THE NAO AND THE RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC EOF1
S. Peng
 

SESSION 8: COUPLED MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION

Chair: Kingtse Mo

3:30-3:50 PREDICTING WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN CLIMATE
N. Schneider and A. J. Miller

3:50-4:10 IMPROVING EQUATORIAL ZONAL CURRENTS WITH BALANCED OCEAN-DATA ASSIMILATION
G. Burgers, M. Balmaseda, F. Vossepoel, G. van Oldenborgh and P. van Leeuwen

4:10-4:30 THE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING OF TIWS AND ITS SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS
J.-Y. Yu and T. W. Liu

4:30-4:50 CALCULATING THE FASTEST GROWING MODES OF THE COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM
H. M. van den Dool

Banquet 6:00
 

Thursday October 25

SESSION 9: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST

Chair: John Janowiak

7:40-8:00 ATMOSPHERIC WATER BUDGETS FROM MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT: ADVANTAGES AND DEFICIENCIES
E. Yarosh and W. Higgins

8:00-8:20 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE STATISTICS OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES IN THE UNITED STATES
Y. Zhou and W. Higgins

8:20-8:40 SUB-REGIONAL VARIABILITY OF WINTER CLIMATE IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
A. Comrie and D. Brown

8:40-9:00 EVENT-BASED STUDY OF INTER-ANNUAL VARIATIONS IN SUMMERTIME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
B. Anderson

9:00-9:20 THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT PLAINS OUT-OF-PHASE SUMMER PRECIPITATION RELATIONSHIP: IS THERE A RELIABLE CORRELATION?
G. Garfin, T. Pagano and R. Maddox

9:20-9:40 RAINFALL PATTERNS IN THE SOUTHWEST, OR: NEW AND IMPROVED CLIMATE DIVISIONS TO MONITOR THE MONSOON
K. Wolter

9:40-9:50 BREAK
 

SESSION 10: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY SOUTH AMERICA AND ELSEWHERE

Chair: Chet Ropelewski

9:50-10:10 CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE LA PLATA RIVER BASIN OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO VARIATIONS IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET
B. Liebmann, G. Kiladis, C. Vera and C. Saulo

10:10-10:30 EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE PATTERNS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE
L. Carvalho, C. Jones and B. Liebmann

10:30-10:50 THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEAN REGIONAL SST ON RAINFALL VARIABILITY IN SOUTHERN-CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA ON SEASONAL TIME SCALES
G. Berri and G. Bertossa

10:50-11:10 RECONSTRUCTION OF OCEANIC PRECIPITATION: PRELIMINARY RESULTS
P. Xie, M. Chen, J. Janowiak

11:10-11:30 THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WATER BUDGET OF THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
A. Mariotti, M. Struglia, N. Zeng, K.-M. Lau

11:30-11:50 THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL AND REMOTE SOURCES OF WATER FOR PRECIPITATION
M. Bosilovich

11:50-12:50 LUNCH
 

12:50-2:50 POSTER SESSION 3

MONSOONS, RAINFALL, HYDROLOGY, FIRE
 

SESSION 10: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ELSEWHERE

Chair: Chet Ropelewski

2:50-3:10 ENSEMBLE CANONICAL CORRELATION PRECIPITATION OVER THE U.S.
K.-M. Lau and K.-M. Kim and S. P. Shen

3:10-3:30 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE NEW YEARS 1997 FLOOD IN YOSEMITE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA-LESSONS FOR FORECASTABILITY AND GLOBAL CHANGE
M. Dettinger
 

SESSION 11: DROUGHT MONITORING, DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION

Chair: D. Lettenmaier

3:30-3:50 DROUGHT MONITORING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES: CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITY
K. Redmond

3:50-4:10 FORECASTING LONG-RANGE IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2001 DROUGHT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN (APRIL 2001-SEPTEMBER 2001)
A. Hamlet, A. Wood, D. Lettenmaier

4:10-4:30 ONGOING DROUGHT IN SOUTHWEST ASIA: THE ROLE OF LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE TROPICAL OCEANS
M. Barlow, H. Cullen, B. Lyon

4:30-4:50 PREDICTABILITY OF SOIL WETNESS AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NCEP SEASONAL PREDICTION MODEL USING REANALYSIS-2 LAND SURFACE ANALYSIS
M. Kanamitsu and C. Lu

4:50-5:10 THE IMPACT OF SOIL MOISTURE ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION SIMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES
K. Mo, M. Kanamitsu and H. Juang

5:10-5:30 TOWARDS A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE MIDLATITUDE PRECURSORS OF THE ASIAN MONSOON
S. Yang, K.-M. Lau, K. Miyakoda and J. Kinter
 

Friday October 26, 2001

SESSION 12: DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION OF THE AMERICAN MONSOONS

Chair: Siegfried Schubert

8:30-8:50 THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
V. Kousky

8:50-9:10 POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF WARM SEASON PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ACROSS THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST
D. Gutzler

9:10-9:30 AN ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL STORM RAINFALL IN EASTERN AND WESTERN MEXICO: DECADAL FLUCTUATIONS AND APPARENT OUT-OF-PHASE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC STORM RAINFALL
A. Douglas and P. Englehart

9:30-9:50 VARIATIONS IN GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM PRECIPITATION
J. Janowiak, P. Xie and P. Arkin

9:50-10:00 BREAK

10:00-10:20 THE IMPACT OF SST ANOMALIES ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
J. Farrara, J. Yu and J. Kim

10:20-10:40 FEATURES OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON DEPICTED IN CPC's SEASONAL PREDICTION GCM RUNS
J. Schemm

10:40-11:00 THE LAND SURFACE MODEL IN THE NCEP REGIONAL REANALYSIS: RECENT OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE AND UPGRADES AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONSOON
K. Mitchell

11:00-11:20 SIMULATION OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON IN DIFFERENT PACIFIC SST REGIMES USING RAMS
C. Castro

11:20-11:40 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAVY MONSOONAL RAINS IN ARIZONA: MECHANISTIC IMPLICATIONS FROM MESOSCALE MODELING
D. Ivanova and D. Mitchell

11:40-12:00 THE GEWEX-GCIP AND THE GAPP: PAST AND FUTURE EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CONTINENTAL CLIMATE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDICTABILITY
R. G. Lawford and Jin Huang

12:00-1:00 Lunch
 

SPECIAL SESSION.

The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

Chair: Wayne Higgins

1:00-1:05 WELCOME, AGENDA 
W. Higgins

1:05-1:25 CLIVAR-PACS-NAME PLANS
M. Patterson

1:25-1:45 GEWEX -GAPP-NAME PLANS
R. Lawford

NAME Field Campaign

1:45-2:00 THE NAME UPPER-AIR SOUNDING NETWORK 
M. Douglas

2:00-2:15 SMN PARTICIPATION IN NAME; PEMEX, CFE CONTRIBUTIONS
M. Cortez

2:15-2:30 IMTA PARTICIPATION IN NAME; CONACYT, FLUX TOWER ARRAY
R. Lobato

2:30-2:45 MEASURING AND MODELING TOPOGRAPHY DEPENDENT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
C. Watts, J. Garatuza, D. Gochis and J. Shuttleworth

2:45-3:00 THE NAME WIND PROFILER / RADAR NETWORK; THE CSU CHILL RADAR
S. Rutledge and R. Carbone

3:00-3:15 Break

3:15-3:30 PARTICIPOATION OF THE NOAA RESEARCH VESSEL RON BROWN IN NAME
S. Rutledge, W. Petersen, and R. Cifelli

3:30-3:45 XBT'S IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA (1992-PRESENT)
S. Miranda

NAME Data Management Activities

3:45-4:00 UCAR/JOSS - NAME PLANS; THE NAME FIELD CATALOG
S. Williams and J. Meitin

NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies

4:00-4:15 THE NAME MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT (NAMIP)
D. Gutzler

4:15-4:30 GLOBAL MODELING ACTIVITIES AND NAME
S. Schubert

4:30-4:45 MOISTURE BUDGET OF THE IAS, ITS TRANSPORT AND THERI ROLES IN WARM-SEASON PRECIPITATION
C. Zhang

4:45-5:00 IRI WARM SEASON FORECASTS; NAME AND HUMAN DIMENSIONS
C. Ropelewski

5:00-5:30 OPEN DISCUSSION (NAME WEB PAGE; NAME LOGO; 5^th VAMOS PANEL MEETING)

5:30 ADJOURN
 

Monday 12:40-2:40 Poster Session I: Forecasting & Decadal Variability

Chair: Muthu Chelliah

P1.1 A NEW EXPERIMENTAL SEASONAL PREDICTION TOOL
X. Quan, J. Whitaker and M. Hoerling

P1.2 VALIDATION OF NSIPP TIER-2 SEASONAL FORECASTS: WHAT CAN WE GAIN FROM IMPROVED SST FORECASTS?
P. Pegion, S. Schubert and M. Suarez

P1.3 A NEW ENSEMBLE CANONICAL CORRELATION PREDICTION SCHEME FOR SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
K. Kim, W. Lau, G. Li and S. Shen 

P1.4 SUPER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF MULTI-LEAD STATISTICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM BASED ON THE COUPLED PATTERN PROJECTION AND OTHER STATISTICAL MODELS
J. Lee, I. Kang and K. Jin

P1.5 LONG-LEAD SEASONAL PROBABILISTIC FORECAST BY THE CPC'S CLIMATE MODEL
W. Chen and M. Kanamitsu

P1.6 DYNAMICAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH IN KOREA
W. Kwon and J. Moon

P1.7 PREDICTION OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST FOR 2001 WITH THE NSIPP ENSO FORECASTING SYSTEM
A. Vinzileos, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, S. Miller and A. Borovikov

P1.8 EXPERIMENTAL REAL-TIME SEASONAL HYDROLOGIC FORECASTING FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN
A Wood, A. Kumar and D. Lettenmaier

P1.9 ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO AND AA) MONITORING USING NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
H. Kim and W. Higgins

P1.10 HAS TROPICAL AIR MOVED NORTHWARD?
S. Zhou and A. Miller 

P1.11 A NULL HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PDO
M. Newman, C. Winkler and C. Penland

P1.12 INTER-DECADAL CHANGES OF 30 YEAR SST NORMALS: CLIMATOLOGY AND STANDARD DEVIATION
Y. Xue, T. Smith and R. Reynolds

P1.13 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EAST ASIA REGION WITH DOUBLED ATMOSPHERIC CO₂ CONCENTRATION
S. Baek, J. Rhu, S. Ryoo and W. Kwon

P1.14 DECOMPOSITION OF TREE-RING SERIES TO ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF ANNUAL PHILIPPINE TYPHOONS AND USA ATLANTIC HURRICANES
P. Baldazo, T. Piechota, T. Acebes and A. Ramirez

P1.15 JOINT ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PARAMETERS OF CLOUD LAYERS, RECONSTRUCTED FROM CARDS OF 1964-2000 FOR HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
I. Chernhykh and O. Alduchov

P1.16 ON THE SENSITIVITY OF LINEAR TREND ESTIMATES IN THE SERIES OF UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURE
A. Sterin

P1.17 HOMOGENEOUS IN-SITU WIND DATA OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES: WHAT DO THEY SAY ABOUT VARIATIONS OF NEAR-SURFACE WIND FIELD DURING THE PAST 50 YEARS?
P. Groisman and H. Barker

P1.18 TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR AND EARTH RADIATION BUDGET FROM NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
S. Yang, M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki and A. Miller

P1.19 NOAA NWS OCWWS CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION ACTIONS IN EDUCATION AND TRAINING
M. Timofeyeva, R. Livezey, K. Weickmann and J. Koepsell

P1.20 SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ANOMALOUS OCEAN CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
G. Auad, A. Miller, J. Roads and W. White
 
 

Wednesday 12:50-2:50 Poster Session II: Diagnostics & Models

Chair: Wayne Higgins

P2.1 TECHNIQUES FOR FURTHER DIAGNOSTIC APPLICATIONS OF THERMAL AIR TIDES
J. Scheaffer

P2.2 DIAGNOSES OF EFFECTIVE CUMULUS ENTRAINMENT FOR LARGE-SCALE MODELS
B. Mapes

P2.3 THE PROPAGATION MECHANISM OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
K. Seo and K. Kim

P2.4 MECHANISM OF LOCKING OF THE EL NINO AND LA NINA MATURE PHASES TO BOREAL WINTER
S. An and B. Wang

P2.5 THE PHYSICAL MECHANISM OF THE BIENNIAL MODE IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
K.-Y. Kim

P2.6 MESO-SCALE ENSO TELECONNECTIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
L. Leung and A. Hunt

P2.7 THE STRENGTH AND VARIABILITY OF DIABATIC AND LATENT HEATING RATES
C. Winkler, M. Newman and P. Sardeshmukh

P2.8 SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NSIPP-1 AGCM TO CONVECTIVE MICROPHYSICS
J. Bacmeister, M. Suarez and M. Kistler

P2.9 VALIDATION OF CCM3 WITH SUBGRID LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
A. Hunt and S. Ghan

P2.10 TROPICAL STORMS IN ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
S. Camargo, S. Zebiak and L. Goddard

P2.11 PCMDI'S CLIMATE DATA ANALYSIS TOOL (CDAT): AN INTERACTIVE DEMONSTRATION
C. Doutriaux, D. Williams and PCMDI's software team

P2.12 THE IMPORTANCE OF SALINITY IN THE ASSIMILATION OF TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN
A. Troccoli and M. Rienecker

P2.13 TROPICAL FORCING OF NORTH PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY EXPLORED USING A GCM ENSEMBLE
J. Norris and T. Beitzel

P2.14 THE CLIMATOLOGY OF AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS IN NSIPP'S COUPLED SIMULATIONS
M. Rienecker, S. Miller, A. Vintzileos, M. Suarez and J. Bacmeister

P2.15 MODES OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY AND TROPICAL SST FORCING
P. Peng, A. Kumar and M. Kanamitsu

P2.16 SIGNAL-T0-NOISE RATIO OPTIMIZATION: STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION AND CONFIDENCE LIMITS
D. Straus and T. Del Sole

P2.17 COMPARISONS BETWEEN NCAR/REANALYSIS AND CARDS/MONADS MONTHLY DATA: A DETAILED ASSESSMENT FOR UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
V. Khan, K. Rubinshtein, and A. Sterin

P2.18 INFLUENCE OF INCREASED CO2 ON REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
J. Han and J. Roads

P2.19 IMPACTS OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATIONS ON U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DURING ENSO-NEUTRAL AND WEAK ENSO WINTERS
Y. Xue, R.W. Higgins, H.-K. Kim and V. Kousky
 

Thursday 12:50-2:50 Poster Session III: Monsoons, Rainfall, Hydrology, Fire

Chair: Jae Schemm

P3.1 THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON REGIONAL RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
Y. Chang and S. Schubert

P3.2 SEASONAL EVOLUTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LINKAGE WITH ADJACENT MONSOONS
H. Wang and M. Ting

P3.3 SOUTH ASIAN MONSOON AND TROPOSPHERIC BIENNIAL OSCILLATION
N. Vjazilova

P3.4 REAL-TIME MONITORING OF WEATHER-CLIMATE LINKAGE
Y. Zhou, W. Higgins and H. Kim

P3.5 ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO AND AA) MONITORING USING NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
H. Kim and W. Higgins

P3.6 PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF INTER-MONTHLY PATTERNS OF POINT MUGU, CALIFORNIA AND CALIFORNIA CLIMATIC DIVISION PRECIPITATION
C. Fisk

P3.7 REGIONAL SIMULATION OF THE SUMMERTIME HYDROLOGIC CYCLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
B. Anderson and J. Roads

P3.8 THE POTENTIAL OF TREE-RING D18O AS A PROXY FOR MEAN NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
W. Wright, and S. Leavitt

P3.9 INGESTING SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE PSU/NCAR MESOSCALE MODEL (MM5) AND ITS IMPACTS ON MODELED SURFACE PRECIPITATION
I. Yucel, W. Shuttleworth, X. Gao and S. Sorooshian

P3.10 BAY OF BENGAL SUB-SEASONAL SST VARIABILITY AND THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN MONSOON
G. Vecchi

P3.11 LARGE-SCALE VALIDATION Of AMIP II LAND-SURFACE SIMULATIONS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS
T. Phillips, P. Irannejad, A. Henderson-Sellers, K. McGuffie, E. Clayton and S. Sharmeen

P3.12 DROUGHT MONITORING ACTIVITIES IN NCDC'S CLIMATE MONITORING BRANCH
S. Stephens, K. Gleason, R. Heim Jr., and J. Lawrimore

P3.13 A LONG-TERM LAND SURFACE HYDROLOGIC DATA SET FOR THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
E. Maurer, A. Wood and D. Lettenmaier

P3.14 SEASONAL STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS FROM GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: APPLICATIONS TO MEHAWELI RIVER IN SRI LANKA
Lareef Zubair

P3.15 THE GEWEX-GCIP AND THE GAPP: PAST AND FUTURE EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CONTINENTAL CLIMATE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDICTABILITY
R. G. Lawford and Jin Huang

P3.16 COMMUNICATING EXPERIMENTAL FLORIDA DRY SEASON FORECASTS AND REGIONALIZED CLIMATIC INFORMATION TO USERS VIA THE INTERNET
B. Hagemeyer, D. Sharp and D. Jacobs

P3.17 ASSESSING LONG-TERM FIRE DANGER VARIABILITY AND CHANGE FROM CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUT
T. Brown and B. Hall