Program for the 27th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

October 21-25, 2002
George Mason University

Co-hosted by: Center for Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) 

Monday October 21, 2002

7:15-8:00 Registration
8:00-8:30 Welcome and Opening Remarks

SESSION 1: REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Chairperson: C. Ropelewski

8:30-8:50 EVOLUTION OF THE RECENT ENSO CYCLE
V. Kousky

8:50-9:10 UPDATE ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR AND DROUGHT OUTLOOK IMPROVEMENTS
D. LeComte and R. Tinker

9:10-9:30 THE PERFECT OCEAN FOR DROUGHT
M. Hoerling and A. Kumar

9:30-9:50 ORIGINS OF THE SUMMER 2002 CONTINENTAL US DROUGHT
M. Fennessy, P. Dirmeyer, J. Kinter, L. Marx and C. Schlosser

9:50-10:05 Break

10:05-10:25 THE DROUGHT OF 2001-02 IN COLORADO: HOW DOES IT RANK IN THE INSTRUMENTAL RECORD?
K. Wolter and S. Jain

10:25-10:45 SUMMARY OF THE 2002 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: A CLIMATIC PERSPECTIVE
G. Bell and S. Goldenberg

SESSION 2: SKILL OF RECENT PREDICTIONS
Chairperson: R. Livezey

10:45-11:05 RECENT SKILL OF OPERATIONAL SEASONAL FORECASTS
H. Van den Dool, D. Unger and J. Hoopingarner

11:05-11:25 EVALUATION OF THE IRI’S ENSO FORECASTS ISSUED PRIOR TO AND DURING THE ONSET OF THE 2002 EL NINO
A. Barnston, L. Goddard, S. Mason, S. Zebiak, B. Lyon, C. Ropelewski and N. Ward

         Abstract                        Powerpoint Presentation

11:25-11:45 VERIFICATION OF SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH THE NCEP SEASONAL FORECAST GCM IN 2001/2002
J. Schemm, A. Kumar and M. Kanamitsu

        Abstract                       Powerpoint Presentation

11:45-12:05 HOW MUCH “SKILL” WAS THERE IN FORECASTING ENSO FROM 1996 THROUGH 2002, INCLUDING THE 2002 EL NINO ONSET?
C. Landsea and J. Knaff

        Abstract                       Powerpoint Presentation

12:05-12:25 CPC’S NEW FORECAST VERIFICATION SYSTEM
E. Olenic and W. Ebisuzaki

12:25-1:15 LUNCH

1:15-2:30 POSTER SESSION 1:
Chairperson: J. Schemm

SESSION 3: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING ENSO
Chairperson: Ed O’Lenic

2:30-2:50 ENSO PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY AT COLA
B. Kirtman

2:50-3:10 DYNAMIC CHARACTERIZATION OF ENSO USING A MULTI-INDEX APPROACH
L. Goddard, A. Barnston and S. Zebiak

3:10-3:30 HISTORICAL CHRONOLOGIES OF EL NINO EVENTS IN THE LIGHT OF INSTRUMENTAL DATA
A. Kaplan and J. Conan

3:30-3:50 THE EFFECT OF AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WARM-POOL SST ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EL NINO WARMING
D. Sun

3:50-4:05 BREAK

SESSION 3: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING ENSO, continued
Chairperson: Ed O’Lenic

4:05-4:25 A NEW LOOK AT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS A DIAGNOSTIC FOR MONITORING EL NINO WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR PREDICTION AND IMPACTS
B. Lyon

4:25-4:45 WINTER SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN JAPAN AND EAST ASIAN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH ENSO
K. Takano, C. Kobayashi, S. Maeda and S. Kusunoki

        Abstract                     Powerpoint Presentation

4:45-5:05 EURO-MEDITERRANEAN RAINFALL AND ENSO - A SEASONALLY VARYING RELATIONSHIP
A. Mariotti and K.-M. Lau

SESSION 4: DECADAL VARIABILITY AND TRENDS
Chairperson: Ed O’Lenic

5:05-5:25 A NEW WAY TO ESTIMATE THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION AND LAND USE ON CLIMATE CHANGE.
Eugenia Kalnay and Ming Cai

5:30 - 8:00 WORKSHOP ICEBREAKER RECEPTION

Tuesday October 22

SESSION 4: DECADAL VARIABILITY AND TRENDS
Chairperson: M. Hoerling

8:00-8:20 DECADAL MODULATION OF ENSO-BASED LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS OF SOUTHWEST U.S. WINTER PRECIPITATION
D. Gutzler, D. Kann and C. Thornbrugh

              Abstract                      Powerpoint Presentation

8:20-8:40 AN 80-YEAR ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
A. Douglas, P. Englehart and M. Lewis

8:40-9:00 CAUSES OF LONG-TERM DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES GREAT PLAINS
S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion, R. Koster and J. Bacmeister

9:00-9:20 AN IMPROVED EXTENDED RECONSTRUCTION OF GLOBAL SST (1854-2001)
T. Smith and R. Reynolds

9:20-9:40 INTERDECADAL CHANGES OF 30-YEAR SST NORMALS DURING 1871-1999
Y. Xue, T. Smith and R. Reynolds

        Absract                       Powerpoint Presentation

9:40-9:55 BREAK

SESSION 4: DECADAL VARIABILITY AND TRENDS, continued
Chairperson: M. Hoerling

9:55-10:15 PREDICTABILITY OF ANOMALOUS SYNOPTIC VARIABILITY FROM INTERANNUAL TO INTERDECADAL TIMESCALES
G. Compo and P. Sardeshmukh

10:15-10:35 DIAGNOSTICS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND TREND USING POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAPS
M. Cai

10:35-10:55 CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE OVER KOREA IN THE RECENT DECADE
W. Kwon, Y. Choi, K. Choi, K. Ahn and H. Jung

10:55-11:15 CLIMATIC CHANGES OF CLOUD LAYER PARAMETERS FOR DRY AND HUMID REGIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL US (1964-2001)
I. Chernykh, O. Alduchov and R. Eskridge

11:15-11:35 INVESTIGATING THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF OSCILLATIONS IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
A. Tsonis

11:35-11:55 THE ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO 20TH CENTURY WARMING: INVESTIGATIONS WITH A GLOBAL COUPLED MODEL
J. Arblaster, C. Bitz and J. Meehl

SESSION 5: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
Chairperson: J. Janowiak

11:55-12:15 THE NORTH PACIFIC AS A REGULATOR OF SUMMERTIME CLIMATE OVER EURASIA AND NORTH AMERICA
W. Lau and I. Kang

12:15-1:00 LUNCH

SESSION 5: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY,continued
Chairperson: J. Janowiak

1:00-1:20 COMPARATIVE INFLUENCE OF SNOW AND SST VARIABILITY ON EXTRATROPICAL CLIMATE IN NORTHERN WINTER
F. Yang and A. Kumar

        Abstract                      Powerpoint Presentation

1:20-1:40 PREDICTABILITY OF SUMMERTIME NORTH AMERICAN PRECIPITATION
P. Sardeshmukh and G. Compo

1:40-2:00 IS THERE REALLY AN INTERMITTENT BIENNIAL OSCILLATION IN THE GREAT PLAINS LOW_LEVEL JET OVER TEXAS?
M. Helfand

2:00-2:20 THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF SNOWCOVER IN FORCING INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE NAO/AO
J. Cohen and K. Saito

2:20-2:40 MODULATION OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BY EXTREME LAND SURFACE SNOW CONDITIONS OVER SIBERIA
G. Gong, D. Entekhabi and J. Cohen

2:40-3:00 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE HYDROCLIMATE OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
L. Leung, A. Hunt, X. Bian and Y. Qian

3:00-3:15 BREAK

SESSION 6: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY
Chairperson: S. Yang

3:15-3:35 INFLUENCE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ON PREDICTABILITY IN THE EXTRATROPICS
C. Jones, D. Waliser, K. Lau and W. Stern

       Abstract                      Powerpoint Presentation

3:35-3:55 PROPAGATION AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
K. Sperber and J. Slingo

3:55-4:15 VARIABILITY OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL CONVECTIVE ANOMALIES AND THEIR STATISTICAL FORECAST SKILL
C. Jones, L. Carvalho, W. Higgins, D. Waliser and J. Schemm

         Abstract                     Powerpoint Presentation

4:15-4:35 IMPACTS OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN NORTH AMERICA DURING ENSO-NEUTRAL AND WEAK ENSO WINTERS
Y. Xue, W. Higgins and V. Kousky

        Abstract                      Powerpoint Presentation

4:35-4:55 AGCM SIMULATIONS OF INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON
D. Waliser, et al.

4:55-5:15 ON THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) AND PRECIPITATION IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.
G. Vecchi and N. Bond

Wednesday October 23

SESSION 6: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY, continued
Chairperson: K. Mo

8:00-8:20 A LOW LEVEL RETURNING FLOW OF THE MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
C. Zhang and M. McGauley

8:20-8:40 SIMULATION OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION WITH THE NCEP MRF MODEL
H. Pan, W. Wang, S. Saha, S. Moorthi, Y. Hou, M. Iredell and J. Sela

8:40-9:00 MJO FORECAST WITH THE NCEP MRF MODEL: NECESSITY OF THE INCLUSION OF AN INTERACTIVE OCEAN
W. Wang, S. Saha and R. Kistler

9:00-9:20 ROLES OF INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS IN THE SEASONAL TRANSITIONS BETWEEN INDIAN AND AUSTRALIAN MONSOONS
J. Yu and S. Weng

9:20-9:40 THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MODULATION OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST ASIA AND SEVERE DROUGHT
M. Barlow

9:40-9:55 BREAK

SESSION 6: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY, continued
Chairperson: K. Mo

9:55-10:15 DYNAMIC PREDICTABILITY OF INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON
D. Waliser, W. Stern, S. Schubert and K. Lau

10:15-10:35 VARIABLE MODES OF TROPICAL CONVECTION MODULATED BY TRENDS IN LOWER STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
J. Sheaffer

10:35-10:55 SST DEPENDENCE OF THE STRUCTURE OF LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY IN VERY LARGE ENSEMBLES OF THE COLA AGCM
D. Straus and F. Molteni

10:55-11:15 A NEW LOOK AT THE ENERGETICS OF LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY
S. Yang, M. Cai, H. Van den Dool and V. Kousky

11:15-11:35 DOWNSTREAM WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING: LINKAGE BETWEEN LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY AND WEATHER EXTREMES
M. Carrera, W. Higgins and V. Kousky

          Abstract                  Powerpoint Presentation

11:35-11:55 THE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE: INTENSITY, FORM, PERSISTENCE, RELATIONSHIPS WITH INTRASEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL ACTIVITY AND EXTREME RAINFALL
L. Carvalho, C. Jones and B. Liebmann

          Abstract                   Powerpoint Presentation

11:55-12:15 Sensitivity of Prominent Teleconnection Patterns to Base Point Perturbations
W. Chen and H. Van den Dool

12:15-1:15 Lunch

1:15-2:30 POSTER SESSION 2
Chairperson: S. Yang

SESSION 7: EXPERIMENTAL LONG-LEAD PREDICTION
Chairperson: J. Kinter

2:30-2:50 SKILL OF MONTHLY/SEASONAL PREDICTIONS BASED ON THE CAS METHOD
H. Van den Dool and Y. Fan

2:50-3:10 ADJUSTING THE OCN PREDICTION METHOD BY INVOKING EOF MODES
P. Peng and H. Van den Dool

3:10-3:30 EXPERIMENTAL PREDICTION OF SEASONAL RAINFALL ANOMALIES IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
K. Wolter

3:30-3:50 ENSEMBLE CANONICAL CORRELATION PREDICTION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE UNITED STATES
K. Mo

3:50-4:05 BREAK

SESSION 7: EXPERIMENTAL LONG-LEAD PREDICTION, continued
Chairperson: J. Kinter

4:05-4:25 EXPERIMENTAL MULTI-MODEL SEASONAL PREDICTION OF THE APEC CLIMATE NETWORK
I. Kang and C. Park

4:25-4:45 AN OBJECTIVE ANALOG METHOD FOR SEASONAL FORECASTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY
M. Chelliah and K. Mo

SESSION 8: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION
Chairperson: M. Chelliah

4:45-5:05 SENSITIVITY OF THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS TO ASSIMILATION ASSUMPTIONS: THE “TOVS-LAND PROBLEM”
W. Ebisuzaki

5:05-5:25 AIR-SEA FLUXES IN NCEP’S SEASONAL FORECAST MODEL
G. White

6:00-9:00 WORKSHOP BANQUET

Thursday October 24

SESSION 8: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION, continued
Chairperson: M. Chelliah

8:00-8:20 REAL-TIME PREDICTION OF MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC INDICES BY VARIOUS OPERATIONAL NWP CENTERS
S. Saha

8:20-8:40 NWS-CPC’S MONITORING AND PREDICTION OF US SOIL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LAND SURFACE VARIABLES: LAND DATA REANALYSIS
Y. Fan, H. Van den Dool, K. Mitchell and D. Lohmann

8:40-9:00 THE EFFECT OF INITIAL SOIL MOISTURE ON SEASONAL PREDICTIONS SIMULATED BY THE NCEP GCM
C. Lu and K. Mitchell

9:00-9:20 VALIDATING AND UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE FEEDBACKS IN THE NCEP AND GFDL MODELS
D. Sun, T. Zhang, J. Fasulo and A. Roubicek

9:20-9:40 STATISTICALLY CORRECTED GCM SIMULATIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHWEST ASIA WINTER PRECIPITATION
M. Tippett, M. Barlow and B. Lyon

9:40-9:55 BREAK

SESSION 8: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION, continued
Chairperson: L. Goddard

9:55-10:15 ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN AN ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
S. Camargo and A. Sobel

         Abstract                          Powerpoint Presentation

10:15-10:35 A NEW INTERMEDIATE COUPLED MODEL FOR IMPROVED SST VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC CLIMATE SYSTEM
R. Zhang, S. Zebiak and R. Kleeman

10:35-10:55 OPEN

10:55-11:15 OPEN

11:15-11:35 DYNAMIC IMPACTS OF WINTERTIME STRATOSPHERE ON THE TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
Y. Song and W. Robinson

11:35-11:55 CLIMATE DOWNSCALING FORECASTS OVER NORTHEAST BRAZIL
L. Sun, D. Moucunill and A. Costa

11:55-1:00 Lunch

SESSION 9: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION AT THE ARCS
Chairperson: A. Bamzai

1:00-1:20 OVERVIEW OF OGP, WHERE WE’RE HEADING.............
K. Mooney

1:20-1:40 AN INTRODUCTION TO THE SEASONAL DIAGNOSTICS CONSORTIUM AND ITS ACTIVITIES
A. Kumar

1:40-2:00 ECPC’S WEEKLY TO SEASONAL US FORECASTS
J. Roads, S. Chen and M. Kanamitsu

2:00-2:20 MULTI-CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION AS A MULTI-MODEL PROXY FOR SEASONAL CLIMATE STUDIES
T. LaRow, S. Cocke and D. Shin

2:20-2:40 PRELIMINARY STUDY TO COUPLE MIT OCEAN MODEL AND NCEP SFM
M. Kanamitsu, E. Yulaeva and J. Roads

2:40-3:00 EVALUATION OF NESTING AND BOUNDARY STRATEGIES FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
S. Cocke, S. Shin and T. LaRow

3:00-3:15 BREAK

3:15-3:35 REINITIALIZED VERSUS CONTINUOUS SIMULATIONS FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE DOWNSCALING
J. Qian, A. Seth and S. Zebiak

3:35-3:55 ERROR GROWTH IN REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS USING THE RSM
S. Chen and H. Juang

SESSION 10: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY
Chairperson: G. Huffman

3:55-4:15 OCEANIC PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION: TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS
P. Arkin, H. Cullen and P. Xie

         Abstract                       Powerpoint Presentation

4:15-4:35 FORECASTING THE ONSET OF EL NINO BASED ON GPCP PRECIPITATION: VALIDATION AND FUTURE WORK
S. Curtis, G. Huffman and R. Adler

          Abstract                        Powerpoint Presentation

4:35-4:55 GLOBAL MONITORING WITH A GLOBAL, 8 KM, ½ HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA SET BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
J. Janowiak, R. Joyce, P. Arkin and P. Xie

        Abstract                          Powerpoint Presentation

4:55-5:15 A 50-YR MONTHLY ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL OCEANIC PRECIPITATION AND ITS POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS IN VERIFYING THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
M. Chen, P. Xie, J. Janowiak, P. Arkin and T. Smith

Friday October 25, 2002

SESSION 11: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING MONSOONS
Chairperson: S. Schubert

8:00-8:20 INDIAN CONTINENTAL RAINFALL AND INDIAN OCEAN SST
G. Vecchi and D. Harrison

8:20-8:40 DISTRIBUTION OF SEASONAL RAINFALL IN THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON REGION
W. Qian, Y. Zhu, H. Kang and D. Lee

8:40-9:00 CLIMATOLOGICAL FINE STRUCTURE IN NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER RAINS
B. Mapes

         Abstract                     Powerpoint Presentation

9:00-9:20 THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SURGES AND THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER THE COLORADO BASIN
E. Berbery and Y. Luo

9:20-9:40 REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER MONSOON FOR THE YEAR 1990
H. Juang, Y. Song and K. Mo

          Abstract                     Powerpoint Presentation

9:40-9:55 BREAK

SESSION 11: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING MONSOONS, continued
Chairperson: S. Schubert

9:55-10:15 THE ETA REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL: MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS SENSITIVITY IN NAMAP EXPERIMENTS TO GULF OF CALIFORNIA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TREATMENT
R. Yang and K. Mitchell

        Abstract                     Powerpoint Presentation

10:15-10:35 MODEL-BASED DIAGNOSTICS OF MOISTURE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
D. Salstein and R. Rosen

10:35-10:55 WARM SEASON WATER VAPOR FLUXES IN THE INTRA-AMERICAS SEA
A. Mestas-Nunez, C. Zhang, B. Albrecht and D. Enfield

10:55-11:15 THE EASTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL AND ITS ROLE IN MEXICAN CLIMATE
R. Prieto-Gonzalez

11:15-11:35 VARIABILITY OF GPS-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
A. Hahmann, R. Kursinski, C. Minjarez Sosa and S. Syndergaard

11:35-12:30 Lunch

SPECIAL SESSION: NAME 3RD SCIENCE WORKING GROUP MEETING

12:30-12:35 WELCOME
W. Higgins

SESSION 1: NAME OVERVIEW
Chairperson: J. Shuttleworth

12:35-12:50 NAME STATUS
W. Higgins

12:50-1:05 VAMOS/NAME PROJECT OFFICE ACTIVITIES
G. Emmanuel

1:05-1:20 UPDATE ON CLIVAR/PACS-NAME PLANS
M. Patterson

1:20-1:35 UPDATE ON GEWEX/GAPP-NAME PLANS
R. Lawford and J. Huang

SESSION 2: NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES
Chairperson: C. Zhang

1:35-1:50 WARM SEASON DIURNAL CYCLE OVER THE US AND MEXICO IN AGCM’S
S. Schubert

1:50-2:05 THE NAME MODEL ASSESSMENT PROJECT (NAMAP)
D. Gutzler et al.

2:05-2:20 ON THE REGIONAL/MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELING COMPONENT OF NAME
M. Moncrief et al.

2:20-2:35 THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF COLD CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NAME REGION
P. Arkin

2:35-2:50 BREAK

SESSION 3: NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN
Chairperson: A. Douglas

2:50-3:05 PHASE 1 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GROUND-BASED PRECIPITATION OBSERVATION NETWORK IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
J. Leal, C. Watts, D. Gochis, J. Shuttleworth and J. Garatuza-Payan

3:05-3:20 THE NAME SIMPLE RAINGAUGE NETWORK IN MEXICO
R. Lobato, M. Rosengaus and W. Higgins

3:20-3:35 SMN PARTICIPATION IN NAME
M. Cortez and A. Douglas

3:35-3:50 NAME PIBAL SUPPLEMENT/RPV's
M. Douglas et al.

3:50-4:05 NAME WIND PROFILER/RADAR/SOUNDING NETWORK
S. Rutledge

4:05-4:20 MODELING ACTIVITIES LINKED TO THE NAME WIND PROFILER/RADAR OBSERVATIONS
M. Moncrief

4:20-4:35 AIR-SEA FLUX MEASUREMENTS AND REMOTE SENSORS OF INTEREST TO NAME
C. Fairall

4:35-4:50 NAME RESEACRH AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS
B. Smull

4:50-5:05 THE NAME FORECAST OPERATIONS CENTER
E. Pytlak et al.

5:05-5:20 NAME AND HUMAN DIMENSIONS/JOINT FORECAST OFFICE
A. Ray

SESSION 4: PANEL SESSION
Chairperson: C. Ropelewski

5:20-6:00 GENERAL DISCUSSION
W. Higgins

6:00 ADJOURN

Monday October 21, 2002

1:15-2:30 POSTER SESSION 1:
Chairperson: J. Schemm

P1.1 AIR SEA FLUXES: A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATION BASED ON THE TIME-DEPENDENT ENERGY BUDGETS OF THE TROPICAL WARM WATER POOLS
H. Zhang, J. Toole, and M. Caruso

P1.2 INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL-WESTERN AND EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC SST ON EAST ASIAN CLIMATE
S. Yoo, C. Ho, H. Choi and S. Yang

P1.3 ON THE EVOLUTION OF WESTERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER CLIMATE FOLLOWING EL NINO PEAKS
D. Enfield and C. Wang

P1.4 INTERANNUAL-INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE AMAZON HYDROLOGIC CYCLE
N. Zeng

P1.5 POSSIBLE MECHANISMS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING THE MONTHLY MEAN SUBTROPICAL JET OVER SOUTH AMERICA DURING THE AUSTRAL WINTER
P. Antico and G. Berri

P1.6 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA DURING ENSO EVENTS OF THE PERIOD 1960-1998
G. Berri and G Bertossa

P1.7 EFFECTS OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ZONAL INDEX VACILLATION IN SOUTH AMERICA
R. Ferreira and M. Suarez

P1.8 CHARACTERISTICS OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE UNITED STATES: CLIMATOLOGY AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
Y. Zhou, J. Larson and W. Higgins

P1.9 THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE REANALYSIS PROJECT: RESULTS FOR THE FIRST 60 YEARS - 1851 TO 1910
C. Landsea et al.

P1.10 LARGE-SCALE MODULATION OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
J. Otkin and J. Martin

P1.11 ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES OF CLOUD LAYERS VERTICAL STRUCTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC LAYER BELOW 250-HPA IN ANTARCTICA
I. Chernykh and O. Alduchov

P1.12 CLIMATIC CHANGES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN ATMOSPHERIC LAYER SURFACE-500-HPA ON THE BASE OF GLOBAL UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FOR THE PERIOD 1964-2001 YEARS
O. Alduchov

P1.13 ON THE SENSITIVITY OF TRENDS IN UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURE SERIES
A. Sterin

P1.14 THE OBSERVED INTERACTION BETWEEN WESTWARD-PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MJO DURING BOREAL SUMMER
K. Straub and G. Kiladis

P1.15 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WARMING: A THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY (1951-2001)
E. Atallah, A. Aiyyer and L. Bosart

Wednesday October 23, 2002

1:15-2:30 POSTER SESSION 2:
Chairperson: S. Yang

P2.1 ENSO AND TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY
M. Wu and S. Schubert

P2.2 INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS OVER THE TERRITORIES OF RUSSIAN MIDLATITUDES: EMPIRICAL DETECTION AND MAIN FEATURES
V. Ivanov, A. Sterin and A. Khohlova

P2.3 SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY USING JMA AGCM
C. Kobayashi, K. Takano and T. Nakaegawa

P2.4 USE OF CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FOR FIRE, SMOKE, AND FOREST MANAGEMENT
N. Larkin, D. McKenzie, S. O’Neill and S. Ferguson

P2.5 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO LOW FREQUENCY TELECONNECTION PATTERNS
Y. Chang and S. Schubert

P2.6 CONVECTIVE SCHEMES AND RESOLUTION IMPACTS ON SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
D. Shin, T. LaRow and S. Cocke

P2.7 ACCURATE INTEGRATION OF STOCHASTIC CLIMATE MODELS
B. Ewald, C. Penland and R. Temam

P2.8 COMPARISON BETWEEN NCEP/DOE AND REANALYSIS-2 SOIL MOISTURE AND GLOBAL SOIL MOISTURE DATA BANK OBSERVATIONS
C. Lu, M. Kanamitsu and W. Ebisuzaki

P2.9 REGIONAL DEPENDENCE OF THE U.S. SUMMER PRECIPITATION ON SOIL MOISTURE
K. Mo and H. Juang

P2.10 VALIDATION OF LAND SURFACE PARAMETERS FROM THE JMA-SIB USING ERA15 ATMOSPHERIC FORCING DATA
T. Tokuhiro

P2.11 AN OI-BASED ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL DAILY PRECIPITATION: PRELIMINARY RESULTS
P. Xie and J. Janowiak

P2.12 PREDICTABILITY OF WET AND DRY SUMMERS IN WEST AFRICA
J. Consor

P2.13 LONG-TERM OBSERVED DAILY WATER BUDGET PARAMETERS FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT
E. Yarosh, W. Shi and W. Higgins

P2.14 VERIFICATION OF STATION TEMPERATURE TRANSLATIONS FROM CPC PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
A. Bair, M. Timofeyeva, D. Unger, and K. Moser

P2.15 ATMOSPHERIC SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY BY METRI AGCM
J. Moon, W. Kwon and J. Kim

P2.16 THE PHYSICAL MECHANISMS OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
K. Seo and K. Kim

P2.17 PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION AND THE IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION
V. Holbrook and K. Maxwell