Abstract

The predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific climate in the NCEP CFS are depicted by applying a maximized signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis. The CFS captures the two most dominant modes of observed climate patterns. For summer, the most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the onset years of ENSO, with strong precipitation signals over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans, Southeast Asia, and tropical Asian monsoon regions. The second most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the decay years of ENSO, with weakening signals over the western-central Pacific and strengthening signals over the Indian Ocean. The CFS, which is highly skillful in capturing the air-sea interaction processes associated with the precipitation features as demonstrated in sea surface temperature and wind patterns, is capable of predicting the most dominant modes several months in advance. The predictable patterns in CFS for other seasons will also be presented.

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