Shown below are MJO forecast products using information from the operational GFS (i.e., single, higher-resolution run). The Wheeler and Hendon (2004) methodology is applied to the model forecast data and are equivalent to those perfomed on observations with necessary adjustments due to the use of realtime model forecast data. Please inquire for additional details if needed. The anomalies (with the seasonal cycle and interannual variability removed) are then projected onto EOFs based on observed data.

Phase diagram showing the evolution of the last 40 days of observations along with the 15 day operational GFS forecast. Blue line is the operational GFS forecast with the green line (Ensemble Mean GFS) displayed for comparison. Thick (thin) lines refer to week 1 and week 2 respectively.