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Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis - IPCC Working Group Ii contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report

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Figures: Chapter 1

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Figure 1.1

Figure 1.1 | Figure 1.1 | The structure of the AR6 WGI Report

Figure 1.2

Figure 1.2 | Main relations between AR5 WGI and AR6 WGI chapters.

Figure 1.3

Figure 1.3 | Visual guide to Chapter 1

Figure 1.4

Figure 1.4 | Changes are occurring throughout the climate system.

Figure 1.5

Figure 1.5 | Long-term context of anthropogenic climate changebased on selected paleoclimatic reconstructions over the past 800,000 years (800 kyr) for three key indicators: atmospheric CO2concentrations, global mean surface temperature (GMST), and global mean sea level (GMSL).

Figure 1.6

Figure 1.6 | Climate science milestones, between 1817 and 2021. Top: Milestones in observations.

Figure 1.7

Figure 1.7 | Schematic of temporal coverage of (a) selected instrumental climate observations and (b) selected paleoclimate archives.

Figure 1.8

Figure 1.8 | G.S. Callendar’s estimates of global land temperature variations and their possible causes.

Figure 1.9

Figure 1.9 | Assessing past projections of global temperature change.

Figure 1.10

Figure 1.10 | Range of projected temperature change for 1990–2030 for various regions defined in IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR).

Figure 1.11

Figure 1.11 | Choice of baseline matters when comparing observations and model simulations.

Figure 1.12

Figure 1.12 | Global warming over the instrumental period.

Figure 1.13

Figure 1.13 | Simulated changes in various climate indicators under historical and RCP4.5 scenarios using the MPI ESM Grand Ensemble.

Figure 1.14

Figure 1.14 | The observed emergence of changes in temperature.

Figure 1.15

Figure 1.15 | The ‘cascade of uncertainties’ in CMIP6 projections.

Figure 1.16

Figure 1.16 | Illustrating concepts of low-likelihood outcomes.

Figure 1.17

Figure 1.17 | Illustration of two types of tipping points

Cross-Working Group Box: Attribution, Figure 1

Cross-Working Group Box: Attribution, Figure 1 | Schematic of the steps to develop an attribution assessment, and the purposes of such assessments. Methods and systems used to test the attribution hypothesis or theory include: model-based fingerprinting; other model-based methods; evidence-based fingerprinting; process-based approaches; empirical or decomposition methods; and the use of multiple lines of evidence.

Figure 1.18

Figure 1.18 | Main region types used in this report.

Figure 1.19

Figure 1.19 | Resolution of the atmospheric and oceanic components of global climate models participating in CMIP5, CMIP6 and HighResMIP

Figure 1.20

Figure 1.20 | World map showing the increased diversity of modelling centres contributing to CMIP and CORDEX.

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Box 1.1 Figure 1

Box 1.1, Figure 1 | The IPCC AR6 approach for characterizing understanding and uncertainty in assessment findings.

Cross-Chapter Box 1.2, Figure 1

Cross-Chapter Box 1.2, Figure 1 | Changes in radiative forcing from 1750–2019.

Cross-Chapter Box 1.4, Figure 1

Cross-Chapter Box 1.4, Figure 1 | The SSP scenarios used in this Report, their indicative temperature evolution and radiative forcing categorization, and the five socio-economic storylines upon which they are built.

Cross-Chapter Box 1.4, Figure 2

Cross-Chapter Box 1.4, Figure 2 | Comparison between the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios

FAQ 1.1 Figure 1

FAQ 1.1, Figure 1 | Sample elements of climate understanding, observations and models as assessed in the IPCC First Assessment Report (1990) and Sixth Assessment Report (2021).

FAQ 1.2, Figure 1

FAQ 1.2, Figure 1 | Observed variations in regional temperatures since 1850

FAQ 1.3, Figure 1

FAQ 1.3, Figure 1 | Comparison of past, present and future.