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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222203
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Dec 23 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 04N10E and extends to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 03.5N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is about these
boundaries from 04N to 05.5N between 16W and 26W, and from 04N to
05.5N between the Equator to 09N between 36W and 42W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, extending from 1035 mb
high pressure over the Ohio Valley southwestward to eastern
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate NNE winds across the
eastern Gulf and moderate or weaker NE to E winds elsewhere. Moderate
seas of 5 ft or less prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern United States
will drift eastward and weaken through mid-week, leading to
moderate mainly E winds through Mon, becoming SE to S winds Tue
through Wed. A cold front is expected to move slowly off the
Texas Thu night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from Haiti to just south of Jamaica to the
NE coast of Honduras. A surface trough has been analyzed over the
Mona Passage. Farther south, the eastern extension of the East
Pacific Monsoon Trough runs across the far SW Caribbean to a 1009
mb low in northern Colombia. Northerly winds diving southward into
the southwest Caribbean and the monsoon trough are producing scattered
moderate isolated strong convection in the central and SW
Caribbean, generally south of 18N between 73W and 82W.
The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the central
United States and the aforementioned front support moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft west of a line extending
from Haiti to the border of Panama and Colombia. Locally strong
winds are observed via recent scatterometer data in areas of
convection. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the
SW Caribbean S of 15N. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are
present in the SE Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds
prevail elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are expected
to continue across the western Caribbean tonight, behind the
stalling cold front. The front should dissipate by morning, but
locally strong NE winds may continue to pulse through the
Windward Passage early this week. High pressure will build over
eastern Mexico this week, and low pressure over northern Colombia
will strengthen. The increasing pressure gradient between these
features will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across
much of the basin Mon night through Tue night, diminishing to
moderate to locally fresh Wed and Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N57W southwestward to the northern
coast of Haiti. A trough is noted to the east, from 25N62W to
the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring in the vicinity of the front and trough. A second
cold front extends from 31N64W to 27N80W. Moderate N to NE winds
are noted behind both fronts. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Moderate period NW to N
swell generated behind the second front is moving into the
northern waters, producing seas of 7 to 8 ft N of 29N between 64W
and 76W.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
a robust subtropical ridge stemming from a 1042 mb high
positioned NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics
support fresh to strong E to NE winds across much of the Atlantic
E of 35W and N of 17N. Rough seas are found in these waters,
peaking near 12-13 ft north of the Canary Islands. Farther south,
moderate to locally fresh E trade winds and moderate seas are
present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, south of 18N,
where seas are 5 to 8 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front from 31N57W to Haiti
will remain generally stationary near Haiti, while moving
eastward across the remaining Atlantic. This will align this
boundary more NE to SW by Mon night and E-NE to W-SW by late Tue.
The front will slowly dissipate over southeastern waters through late
Tue. High pressure building behind the front will lead to
increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough
seas likely Mon night into mid-week, until the frontal boundary
dissipates late Tue.
$$
Stripling
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