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067
AXPZ20 KNHC 222102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between persistent high pressure over eastern Mexico and low pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will continue to support gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 14.5N through tonight. Presently, strong N to NE winds extend beyond the Tehuantepec coast to near 250 nm offshore. Seas within and just downwind of the gale force winds at expected to peak near 12 ft. The high pressure will shift east by early Mon and weaken across Mexico, with the pressure gradient loosening. This will cause winds to diminish below gale force early Mon with fresh to strong northerly pulses thereafter into Tue night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details.

Significant NW swell: A large, complex, and powerful low pressure system north of the area will move NE through tonight, followed by another similar low pressure system sweeping just north of the area waters Mon through Tue. These systems are generating several rounds of large NW swell that will propagate into the area through next week. This afternoon, seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters NW of a line from 30N118W to 13N129W to 08N140W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed peak seas of 16-20 ft across the local waters N of 15N and between 122W and 132W. This large NW swell will continue to spread SE, with seas 12 ft and higher expected to cover the waters westward from the coast of Baja California Norte to just offshore of Punta Eugenia to 09N130W by this evening, and from Baja Sur to 04N136W by Mon morning. This large swell will then peak across the Tehuantepec area by Tue evening, and across the Central American waters offshore of Costa Rica by late Wed afternoon. A reinforcing pulse of new NW swell will enter the NW waters late this afternoon and evening, with peak seas of 20-24 ft near 30N140W occurring from near midnight to Mon morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N73.5W to 09N84W to 05N92W to 06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 08N124W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 07.5N east of 94W to the coast of Colombia.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features Section for information on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and significant NW swell that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through next week.

Aside from those conditions, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 28N126W, with an associated ridge extending southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a trough over NW Mexico is supporting moderate northerly winds across the Baja California waters, while gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 20N to offshore of Manzanillo and inside the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft over the open waters off Mexico to Baja Sur. Elsewhere across the Baja waters, seas are quickly building to 8 to 15 ft from Punta Abreojos north and northwestward. Seas are 3 ft or less inside the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, other than the aforementioned Gale Warning in the Tehuantepec region and the significant NW swell building across the regional waters this afternoon, high pressure will generally remain in place to the west of Baja California through Tue. A weakening cold front will move southward into the area Tue evening through Wed and gradually dissipate, with new high pressure then building across the area and dominating conditions through the rest of the week. Moderate northerly winds across the Baja waters today will pulse to fresh at times through Tue, then increase to fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward starting Tue evening, as high pressure strengthens across the region with and behind the dissipating cold front. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remaining waters to the east.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between a surface ridge extending southward over the western Caribbean Sea and the EPAC monsoon trough is supporting fresh NE gap winds in the Papagayo region, and moderate NE winds spilling out of the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, except well offshore Guatemala where moderate N winds are downwind from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. South of the monsoon trough and 07N, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate S to SW swell prevail, except for seas of 6 to 8 ft well offshore of western Guatemala, where NW swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event persists. Weak low pressure continues offshore of the Colombian coast and is promoting moderate northerly winds across the western half of the Gulf of Panama. Active convection is present S of 07.5N from the coast of Colombia westward across the near and offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica, and extends beyond 90W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Caribbean and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will continue to support fresh NE gap winds pulsing to strong at night across in the Papagayo region into early Tue, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Strong to gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue to generate rough northwesterly seas that will move well offshore Guatemala through Mon. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through mid-week, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama at times. Seas will build Wed as the strong NW swell moves into the regional waters.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section about large NW swell over the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough through the next several days.

A cold front is just north of the NW waters with moderate SW winds occurring over the waters N of 25N and W of 137W. High pressure of 1025 mb is ahead of the front near 28N126W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere north of 21N and east of the front to 120W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ to 21N and west of 120W per recent satellite scatterometer data, and locally strong within 210 nm of the ITCZ west of 127W. Across the remainder of the open waters, including south of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate trades prevail. Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas are mainly in the 5 to 8 ft range except 7 to 12 ft S of 10N and W of 120W with the arrival of the NW swell.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swell discussed in detail in the Special Features sections, little significant change in winds are forecast over the next several days, while a front manages to push SE of 30N140W by midday Mon, decaying over the northern waters into mid-week. New high pressure will build into the region behind this front and briefly increase trade winds to strong W of 130W during the day on Tue. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or greater will cover most of the waters west of 110W by Mon afternoon, and then west of 95W by Tue night.

$$ Stripling

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