2024 Arctic Report Card tracks rapid, complex Arctic change
A group caribou from the Western Arctic Caribou Herd travels along a winter trail between the villages of Selawik and Ambler, Alaska, within the Selawik National Wildlife Refuge. The herd migrates through and sometimes winters on the refuge. (Image credit: Lisa Hupp/USFWS)
After storing carbon dioxide in frozen soil for millennia, the Arctic tundra is being transformed by frequent wildfires into an overall source of carbon to the atmosphere, which is already absorbing record levels of heat-trapping fossil fuel pollution.
The transition of the Arctic from a carbon sink to a carbon source is one of the dramatic changes in the Arctic that are documented in NOAA’s 2024 Arctic Report Card. Climatic shifts are forcing plants, wildlife and the people that depend on them to rapidly adapt to a warmer, wetter and less certain world.
“Our observations now show that the Arctic tundra, which is experiencing warming and increased wildfire, is now emitting more carbon than it stores, which will worsen climate change impacts,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “This is yet one more sign, predicted by scientists, of the consequences of inadequately reducing fossil fuel pollution.”
Transcript
Text Transcript
Transcript
Intro
0:00
[Music]
Changing ecosystem
0:06
The Arctic is an ecosystem in transition,
0:09
and adaptation to a warmer Arctic
0:12
is essential to the survival and resilience
0:14
of its plants and wildlife,
0:16
and the well-being of the communities that depend on them.
Arctic tundra
0:20
Transformation is especially clear on the Arctic tundra.
0:24
The tundra has absorbed
0:25
and stored carbon in frozen soil for millennia,
Wildfires and carbon dioxide
0:29
but wildfires across warming permafrost regions
0:32
are increasing and tipping the scales,
0:35
resulting in the release of carbon back into the atmosphere,
0:39
accelerating human-caused climate change.
Sea ice
0:43
Another of the region's most defining characteristics,
0:46
sea ice, has served as a bellwether of the Arctic’s shift
0:50
to a new environmental state,
0:52
particularly over the last two decades.
Surface air temperature
0:56
And, Arctic surface air temperatures continue to rise,
1:00
with 2024 being the second warmest year on record.
1:04
In August, record-breaking heat waves
1:06
baked Northern Alaskan and Canadian communities.
1:10
But these changes aren't uniform.
1:12
In the Eurasian Arctic,
Non-uniform changes
1:14
sea surface temperatures were unusually high,
1:17
while temperatures in the Pacific Arctic were much lower.
1:21
In parts of the Canadian Arctic and Siberia,
1:24
an extremely dry summer stood in stark contrast
1:28
to heavy precipitation over much of Alaska and Scandinavia.
1:32
And across the Arctic,
1:34
winter snow accumulation was above average,
1:37
but the length of the snow season
1:39
contrasted sharply by region.
1:42
For parts of the Canadian Arctic, a late onset of snow
1:45
and early spring melt resulted in the shortest snow season
1:49
in 26 years.
Seals
1:52
Despite challenges, the threatened ringed
1:55
seal populations in the Pacific Arctic region
1:58
are persevering, even though their primary food source,
2:01
Arctic cod, is becoming less available as ocean waters warm.
2:06
But as the sea ice, where females nurse their pups,
2:10
becomes less stable in spring and recedes earlier,
2:13
the seal's future remains uncertain.
Migratory caribou
2:17
Unlike ice seals,
2:19
many North American migratory caribou
2:21
are facing severe population declines,
2:24
plummeting by 65% overall in recent decades.
2:29
Though small coastal caribou populations
2:31
have recently grown or remain stable,
2:34
rapid declines in large inland populations
2:37
are a serious concern for local communities.
2:40
The increase in freezing rain
2:42
and rain-on-snow events makes it difficult
2:45
for foraging caribou to access food,
2:47
and warmer temperatures allow taller shrubs
2:50
to crowd the lichen the caribou depend on.
Indigenous resilience and adaptability
2:54
As the Arctic warms,
2:55
Indigenous Peoples work to preserve
2:58
and evolve their cultural practices,
3:00
demonstrating resilience and adaptability
3:03
in the face of extreme environmental transformations.
Worldwide impacts
3:07
But Arctic changes have worldwide impacts,
3:10
and global attention is critical
3:12
to reduce risks into the future
3:14
and support successful adaptation
3:17
in the Arctic and beyond.
3:19
[Music]
New research in the 2024 Arctic Report Card, contributed by 97 scientists from 11 countries, reveals record-setting observations that underlie ongoing changes emerging in the Arctic, which covers the lands and seas of the north polar region. They include:
- Continuing high air temperatures and wildfires.
- Declines of large inland caribou herds.
- Increasing precipitation, including rain-on-snow events that coat the landscape in an icy shell, making travel difficult for people and foraging challenging for wildlife.
Observations also reveal stark regional differences that make local and regional environmental shifts highly unpredictable for people, plants and animals.
“This year’s report demonstrates the urgent need for adaptation as climate conditions quickly change,” said Twila Moon, lead editor of the Arctic Report Card and deputy lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “Indigenous Knowledge and community-led research programs can inform successful responses to rapid Arctic changes.”
Notable findings from the 2024 Arctic Report Card
In the air
- Arctic annual surface air temperatures ranked second-warmest since 1900.
- Autumn 2023 and summer 2024 were especially warm across the Arctic, with temperatures ranking 2nd and 3rd warmest, respectively.
- An early August 2024 heatwave set all-time record daily temperatures in several northern Alaska and Canada communities.
- The last nine years are the nine warmest on record in the Arctic.
- Summer 2024 across the Arctic was the wettest on record.
In the ocean
- In September 2024, the extent of Arctic sea ice, which has a profound influence on the polar environment, was the sixth-lowest in the 45-year satellite record.
- All 18 of the lowest September minimum ice extents have occurred in the last 18 years.
- Arctic Ocean regions that were ice-free in August have been warming at a rate of 0.5 degrees F (0.3 degrees C) per decade since 1982.
- In most of the shallow seas that ring the Arctic Ocean, August mean sea surface temperatures were 3.6–7.2 degrees F (2–4 degrees C) warmer than 1991-2020 averages, while the Chukchi Sea were 1.8–7.2 degrees F (1–4 degrees C) cooler than average.
- Plankton blooms — the base of the marine food chain — continue to increase in all Arctic regions, except for the Pacific Arctic, throughout the observational record of 2003–2024. However, in 2024, lower-than-average values were dominant across much of the Arctic.
- Ice seal populations remain healthy in the Pacific Arctic, though their diets are shifting from Arctic cod to saffron cod with warming waters.
On land
- When including the impact of increased wildfire activity, the Arctic tundra region has shifted from storing carbon in the soil to becoming a carbon source to the atmosphere. Circumpolar wildfire emissions have averaged 207 million tons of carbon per year since 2003.
- The Arctic remains a consistent methane source.
- Alaskan permafrost temperatures were the second warmest on record
- Arctic migratory tundra caribou populations have declined by 65% over the last 2-3 decades. Though the generally smaller coastal herds of the western Arctic have seen some recovery over roughly the last decade, large inland caribou herds are continuing a long-term decline or remain at the lowest populations noted by Indigenous elders.
- Summer heat impacts on caribou herds are projected to magnify over the next 25-75 years, requiring shared knowledge between scientists and Indigenous communities for management strategies.
- Snow accumulation during the 2023-2024 winter was above average across both the Eurasian and North American Arctic.
- Despite above-average snow accumulation, the snow season was the shortest in 26 years over portions of central and eastern Arctic Canada. Arctic snow melt is occurring 1-2 weeks earlier than historical conditions throughout May and June.
- Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss was the lowest since 2013.
- Tundra greenness, a measure of expanding shrub cover due to warming temperatures, ranked second highest in the 25-year satellite record.
“Many of the Arctic’s vital signs that we track are either setting or flirting with record-high or record-low values nearly every year," said Gerald (J.J.) Frost, senior scientist with Alaska Biological Research, Inc. and veteran Arctic Report Card author. "This is an indication that recent extreme years are the result of long-term, persistent changes, and not the result of variability in the climate system.”
Climate, weather and water affect all life on our ocean planet. NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict our changing environment, from the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America’s coastal and marine resources.
Media contacts
Theo Stein, theo.stein@noaa.gov, (303) 819-7409
Monica Allen, monica.allen@noaa.gov, (202) 379-6693
