(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 221000
SPC AC 221000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A moderately amplified and more active/progressive southern-stream
pattern is still expected later this week, along with a general
northward fluctuation of low-level moisture across parts of Texas to
the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast.
After a day of little or no severe-weather potential on Christmas
Wednesday/Day 4, severe risks are expected to increase into Days 5-7
Thursday-Saturday. A secondary upper trough is expected to emerge
from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South.
This could lead to at least a low-end multi-day severe risk in a
corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower
Mississippi Valley. In particular, Thursday/Day 5 could ultimately
warrant Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities across
east/southeast Texas, especially if the more southern and more
severe-favorable ECMWF model runs become more apparent.
..Guyer.. 12/22/2024
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