Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 221716
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
A midlevel shortwave trough will amplify from the central Rockies to
the south-central High Plains on Monday. A weak surface low will
likely develop across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a modest
increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient
depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as
temperatures aloft cool with the approaching mid-level trough.
..Bentley.. 12/22/2024
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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