Weather in Context Tool Usage Manual

Welcome to the Weather in Context project prototype page. Quite simply, the goal of this project is to develop a web-based tool that displays forecast information and its climatological context in a manner that will quickly alert a forecaster to when a record or near-record breaking event is possible.

The tool focuses on maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall. The default table displays the number of ThreadEx stations where the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) temperature forecast breaks or comes within 4 degrees of breaking a given temperature record and where the NDFD precipitation forecast is at least 50% of the precipitation record. Clicking on a cell in this table produces a map that displays the locations of these stations as well as the potentially record breaking NDFD forecast for these stations. There is also now a version of this table for the National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast.

To view forecast data at a particular ThreadEx station, select the desired station from the searchable menu and click 'view table'. The table generated will display the NDFD or NBM forecast of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, and precipitation for the next week, color coded by how close the forecast comes to breaking the record. Clicking on a cell in this table will display a violin plot which shows the GEFS forecast distribution and how it relates to the record.

The color coding of how many stations are forecasted to break or nearly break their temperature or precipitation records is as follows:

More Than 50 Record Max or High Mins
31-50 Record Max or High Mins
16-30 Record Max or High Mins
6-15 Record Max or High Mins
1-5 Record Max or High Mins

More Than 50 Record Min or Low Maxes
31-50 Record Min or Low Maxes
16-30 Record Min or Low Maxes
6-15 Record Min or Low Maxes
1-5 Record Min or Low Maxes

More Than 50 24-Hour Precipitation or Snowfall Records
31-50 24-Hour Precipitation or Snowfall Records
16-30 24-Hour Precipitation or Snowfall Records
6-15 24-Hour Precipitation or Snowfall Records
1-5 24-Hour Precipitation or Snowfall Records

The color coding of how close the NDFD or NBM temperature or precipitation forecast at a particular station comes to the record is as follows:

Break Record Max or High Min
Tie Record Max or High Min
1 Degree from Tying Record Max or High Min
2 Degree from Tying Record Max or High Min
3 Degree from Tying Record Max or High Min
4 Degree from Tying Record Max or High Min

Break Record Min or Low Max
Tie Record Min or Low Max
1 Degree from Tying Record Min or Low Max
2 Degree from Tying Record Min or Low Max
3 Degree from Tying Record Min or Low Max
4 Degree from Tying Record Min or Low Max

150% or Record Precipitation/Snowfall
125% of Record Precipitation/Snowfall
100% of Record Precipitation/Snowfall
75% of Record Precipitation/Snowfall
50% of Record Precipitation/Snowfall

- Your developers Bill Lamberson and Diana Stovern

Mouseover the numbers above to show a list below. Keep in mind that this display shows the number of (usually major) cities that are forecast to be near (by <1°F), tie, or break the record. There are ~390 stations in the CONUS database as of April 2020. Data updated through 12/31/2019.