WPC Formal Publications

Papers with WPC-affiliated authors (bolded) , published in formal, refereed journals (e.g., AMS, EJSSM, NWA), from newest to oldest.

2020s

Bower, E., M.J. Erickson, J.A. Nelson, M. Klein, A. Orrison, 2024: Objective Verification of the Weather Prediction Center’s Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions, Wea. Forecasting , 39:6, 915-924, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0199.1

Pletcher, M. D., P. G. Veals, M. E. Wessler, D. Church, K. Harnos, J. Correia, R. J. Chase, and W. J. Steenburgh, 2024: Validation of Cool-Season Snowfall Forecasts at a High-Elevation Site in Utah’s Little Cottonwood Canyon, Wea. Forecasting , 39, 1261–1277, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0176.1

Burke, P. C., J. Barnwell, M. Reagan, M. A. Rose, T. J. Galarneau Jr., R. Otto, and A. Orrison, 2024: The 21 August 2021 Catastrophic Flash Flood at Waverly, Tennessee: Harnessing the Warn-on-Forecast System for Confident Pre-Warning Messaging of Extreme Rainfall, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , 105, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0205.1

Tobin, D. M., J. S. Kastman, J.A. Nelson, and H. D. Reeves, 2024: Toward the Development of an Impact-Based Decision Support Tool for Surface-Transportation Hazards. Part I: Tying Weather Variables to Road Hazards and Quantifying Impacts, Wea. Forecasting , 39, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0219.1

Tobin, D. M., J. S. Kastman, J.A. Nelson, and H. D. Reeves, 2024: Toward the Development of an Impact-Based Decision Support Tool for Surface-Transportation Hazards. Part II: An Hourly Winter Storm Severity Index, Wea. Forecasting , 39, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0220.1

Semmens, K., R. Hogan Carr, B. Montz, K. Maxfield, Dana M. Tobin, Joshua Kastman, James A. Nelson, Kirstin Harnos, M. Beetstra, and P. Painter, 2024: Winter Storm Severity Index in Alaska: Understanding the Usefulness for Impact-Based Winter Weather Severity Forecast Information, Wea. Forecasting , 39, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0002.1

Wilson, K. A., N. Yussouf, P. L. Heinselman, ; A. Orrison , R. Otto , P. S. Skinner, K. Knopfmeier, B. Matilla, and M. Erickson, 2023: The NOAA Weather Prediction Center's use and evaluation of experimental Warn-on-Forecast System guidance. J. Operational Meteor., 11 (7) , 82-94, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2023.1107

Radford, J. T., G. M. Lackmann, J. Goodwin; J. Correia Jr , K. Harnos , 2023: An iterative approach towards development of ensemble visualization techniques for high-impact winter weather hazards. Part 1: Product development. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104, E1630-E1648, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0192.1

Radford, J. T., G. M. Lackmann, J. Goodwin; J. Correia Jr , K. Harnos , 2023: An iterative approach towards development of ensemble visualization techniques for high-impact winter weather hazards. Part 2: Product evaluation. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104, E1649-E1669, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0193.1

Williamson M., K. Ash, M. J. Erickson , and E. Mullens, 2023: Damages associated with Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (ERO) and missed flash floods. Wea. Forecasting , 35, 971–984, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0035.1

Lamers, A. , Devi S, S., Sharma, M., Berg, R., Gálvez, J.M., Yu, Z., Kriat, T., Cardos, S., Grant, D., Moron, L.A., 2023: Forecasting tropical cyclone rainfall and flooding hazards and impacts, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.005

Novak, D. R., S. E. Perfater, J. L. Demuth, S. W. Bieda III, G. Carbin, J. Craven, M. J. Erickson, M. E. Jeglum, J. Kastman, J. A. Nelson, D. E. Rudack, M. J. Staudenmaier, and J. S. Waldstreicher, 2023: Innovations in winter storm forecasting and decision support services, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104 , E715–E735, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0065.1

Burke, P. C., A. Lamers, G. Carbin, M. J. Erickson, M. Klein, M. Chenard , J. McNatt, and L. Wood, 2023: The Excessive Rainfall Outlook at the Weather Prediction Center: Operational definition, construction, and real-time collaboration, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 104, E542–E562, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0281.1

Lamberson, W. S., M. J. Bodner, J. A. Nelson, and S. A. Sienkiewicz , 2023: The use of ensemble clustering on a multimodel ensemble for medium-range forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center, Wea. Forecasting , 38, 539–554, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0154.1

Asherman, J. , B. Bates, W. Flynn, M. Erickson, and  A. Lamers , 2022: Anticipating the big one: Developing decision support with emergency managers to mitigate flood impacts. J. Business Continuity & Emergency Planning , 16, 1–13.

McMurdie, L. A., G. M. Heymsfield,... David. R. Novak ..., 2022: Chasing snowstorms: The Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 103, E1243–E1269, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0246.1

Veenhuis , B. A., and K. F. Brill , 2022: On the emergence of frequency bias from accumulating or disaggregating bias-corrected quantitative precipitation forecasts, Wea. Forecasting , 37 ,   511–524, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0083.1

Erickson, M. J., B. Albright, and J. A. Nelson , 2021: Verifying and redefining the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook forecast product. Wea. Forecasting , 36, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0020.1 .

Klaus, E., P. Market, A. Lupo, M. Bodner, J. Kastman , 2020: Projecting Northern Hemisphere Flow Regime Transition Using Integrated Enstrophy. < span class="c3 c6">Atmosphere , 11, 915, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090915

Glenn, E.; Smith, T.M.,  Gálvez, J.M. , Davison, M. , Hibbert, K., González, J.E., 2021: Tropical Convection in the Caribbean and Surrounding Region during a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982–2020. Hydrology , 8, 56. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8020056

Schumacher, R. S., A. J. Hill, M. Klein, J. A. Nelson, M. J. Erickson, S. M. Trojniak , and G. R. Herman, 2021: From random forests to flood forecasts: A research to operations success story. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc .,i   102, E1742–E1755, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0186.1 .

Demuth, J. L., R. E. Morss, I. Jankov, T. I. Alcott, C. R. Alexander, D. Nietfeld, T. L. Jenson, D. R. Novak , and S. G. Benjamin, 2020: Recommendations for Developing Useful and Usable Convection-Allowing Model Ensemble Information for NWS Forecasters. Wea. Forecasting , 35, 1381–1406, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0108.1

Stovern, D. R., J. A. Nelson , S. Czyzyk. M. Klein , K. Landry-Guyton, K. Mattarochia, E. Nipper, and J. W. Zeitler, 2020: The Extreme Precipitation Forecast Table: improving situational awareness when heavy rain is a threat. J. Operational Meteor ., 8 (7), 93-104, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2020.0807

Martinaitis, S.M.,  B. Albright , J.J. Gourley, S. Perfater , T. Meyer, Z. Flamig, R.A. Clark, H. Vergara,  M. Klein , 2020: The 23 June 2016 West Virginia Flash Flood Event as Observed through Two Hydrometeorology Testbed Experiments. Wea. Forecasting , 35, 2099-2126, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0016.1

2010s

Erickson, M. J., J. S. Kastman, B. Albright, S. Perfater, J. A. Nelson, R. S. Schumacher, and G. R. Herman, 2019: Verification Results from the 2017 HMT-WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.i , 58, 2591–2604, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0097.1

Pyle, M. E., and K. F. Brill , 2019: A comparison of two methods for bias correcting precipitation skill scores. Wea. Forecasting , 34 , 3–13, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0109.1 .

Snook, N., F. Kong, K.A. Brewster, M. Xue, K.W. Thomas, T.A. Supine, S. Perfater, B. Albright , 2019: Evaluation of Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecast Products Using WRF, NMMB, and FV3 for the 2016–17 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiments. Wea. Forecasting , 34, 781-804, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0155.1

Erickson, M. J., J. S. Kastman, B. Albright, S. Perfater, J. A. Nelson , R. S. Schumacher, and G. R. Herman, 2019: Verification results from the 2017 HMT–WPC flash flood and intense rainfall experiment. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol ., 58 , 2591–2604, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0097.1 .

Rothfusz, L. P., R.l Schneider, D. Novak , K. Klockow-McClain, A. E. Gerard, C. Karstens, G. J. Stumpf, and T. M. Smith, 2018: FACETs: A proposed next-generation paradigm for high-impact weather forecasting. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc ., 99 , 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0100.1

Blake, B. T., J.R. Carley, T.I. Alcott, I. Jankov, M.E. Pyle, S.E. Perfater, B. Albright , 2018: An Adaptive Approach for the Calculation of Ensemble Gridpoint Probabilities. Wea. Forecasting , 33, 1063-1080, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0035.1

Martinaitis, S.M., J. Gourley, Z.L. Flamig, E.M. Argyle, R.A. Clark III, A. Arthur, B.R. Smith, J.M. Erlingis, S. Perfater, B. Albright , 2017: The HMT Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydro Experiment, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc ., 98, 347-359, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00283.1

Barthold, F. E., T. E. Workoff, B. A.,  Cosgrove, J. J. Gourley, D. R. Novak , and K. M. Mahoney, 2015: Improving flash flood forecasts: The HMT-WPC flash flood and intense rainfall experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 96 , 1859–1866, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00201.1 .

Moore, B. J., T. M. Hamill, E. M. Sukovich, T. Workoff, and F. E. Barthold , 2015: The utility of the NOAA reforecast dataset for quantitative precipitation forecasting over the coastal western United States. J. Operational Meteor. , 3 (12), 133–144. https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2015.0312

Brill, K. F., A. R. Fracasso, and C. M. Bailey , 2015: Applying a Divisive Clustering Algorithm to a Large Ensemble for Medium-Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center. Wea. Forecasting ,   30 ,  873–891, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00137.1

Call, D. A., K. E. Grove, and  P. J. Kocin , 2015: A meteorological and social comparison of the New England blizzards of 1978 and 2013. J. Operational Meteor ., 3 (1), 1–10.   https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2015.0301

Novak, D. R., K. Brill, and W. A. Hogsett , 2014: Using percentiles to communicate snowfall uncertainty. Wea. Forecasting , 29 , 1259–1265, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00019.1

Sukovich, E. M., F. M. Ralph, F. E. Barthold, D. W. Reynolds, and D. R. Novak , 2014: Extreme quantitative precipitation forecast performance at the Weather Prediction Center from 2001 to 2011. Wea. Forecasting , 29 , 894–911, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00061.1

Picca, J.C, D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, S. Ganetis, D. R. Novak , and M. Sienkiewicz, 2014: The value of dual-polarization radar in diagnosing the complex microphysical evolution of an intense snowband. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 95, 1825–1834, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00258.1

Brill, K. F ., 2014: Revisiting an old concept: The gradient wind, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 142 , 1460–1471, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00088.1

Novak, D. R., C. Bailey, K. F. Brill, P. Burke, W. A. Hogsett, R. Rausch, and M. Schichtel , 2014: Precipitation and temperature forecast performance at the Weather Prediction Center. Wea. Forecasting ,   29, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00066.1 .

Stuart, N. A., R. H. Grumm, and M. J. Bodner, 2013: Analyzing predictability and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from the post-Groundhog Day 2009 storm and the March 2009 “megastorm.”  J. Operational Meteor ., 1 (16), 185–199, http://dx.doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2013.0116 .

Novak, D. R . and B. A. Colle, 2012: Diagnosing snowband predictability using a multi-model ensemble system. Wea. Forecasting , 27, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00047.1

Clark, A. J., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, I. L. Jirak, M.l Coniglio, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner , J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, T. L. Jensen, and J. Correia Jr., 2012: An overview of the 2010 hazardous weather testbed experimental forecast program spring experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ., 93 , 55–74, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00040.1

White, A. B., B. Colman, G. M. Carter, F. M. Ralph, R. S. Webb, D. G. Brandon, C. W. King, P. J. Neiman, D. J. Gottas, I. Jankov, K. F. Bril l, Y. Zhu, K. Cook, H. E. Buehner, H. Opitz, D. W. Reynolds, and L. J. Schick, 2012: NOAA's Rapid Response to the Howard A. Hanson Dam Flood Risk Management Crisis, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ., 93,   189–207, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00103.1

Bodner, M. J., N. W. Junker , R. H. Grumm, R. S. Schumacher, 2011: Comparison of atmospheric circulation patterns during the 2008 and 1993 historic midwest floods. NWA Digest , 35 , 103-119.

Brill, K. F. , and M. Pyle, 2010: The Response of Performance Metrics for Binary Forecasts to Hedging that Approaches Random Change, Wea. Forecasting ,   25,  1307–1314, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222381.1

2000s

Junker, N. W., M. J. Brennan, F. Pereira, M. J. Bodner , and R. H. Grumm, 2009: Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ., 90,  445–454, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2636.1

Brill, K. F ., 2009: A general analytic method for assessing sensitivity to bias of performance measures for dichotomous forecasts. Wea. Forecasting , 24,  307–318, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222144.1 .

Brill, K. F. , and F. Mesinger, 2009: Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores, Wea. Forecasting , 24 , 1748–1754, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222272.1

Market, P. S., R. L. Ebert-Cripe, and M. Bodner,  2007: Case study of a long-lived thundersnow event, N WA Digest , 31, 103-120.

Im, J.-S., Brill K. , and Danaher E. , 2006: Confidence interval estimation for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) using Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF). Wea. Forecasting , 21 , 24–41, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF902.1

Charba, J. P., D. W. Reynolds , B. E. McDonald, and G. M. Carter, 2003: Comparative Verification of Recent Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the National Weather Service: A Simple Approach for Scoring Forecast Accuracy, Wea. Forecasting, 18 ,  161–183.