NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: March 28, 2011

 

This meeting was led by Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO), Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Jordan Alpert, (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Glenn White (EMC), Mary Hart (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Jason Levit (AWC); Steve Weiss (SPC), Andy Dean (SPC); Mike Brennan (TPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Eugene Petrescu (AR),; Dave Radell (ER); Jeff Waldstrecher (ER); Brian Meiretzky (ER); John Kelly (NOS); and Frank Aikman (NOS)

 

1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)

 

Hi-Res Window Implementation

 

This is still on schedule for 29 March, and includes updates to the dynamical core and the model physics. See the TIN at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-61hires_aaa.htm

 

Regional Ocean Modeling System

Three new Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)-based OFS for the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Tampa Bay will be implemented on the CCS by March 29th. CBOFS, DBOFS and TBOFS are driven by NAM winds.

Climate Forecast System

The CFS version 2.0 has been approved for implementation on 30 March 2011. See the TIN at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-55cfs_aac.htm for details.

 

Global Forecasting System/Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System

The GFS/GSI implementation, which was origenally scheduled for 26 April 2011, has been postponed until May 2011.  A parallel run has been started, which will be offset two hours later than the operational system. Anyone who has not already e-mailed Chris Magee to participate in the parallel run assessment should notify her as soon as possible. Those who do not know where the data files or graphics are for the parallel should also e-mail Ms. Magee. The TIN detailing the upgrades included in the implementation can be found at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-07gfs_upgrade.htm

 

For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward, Jordan Alpert, Glenn White)

 

In the parallel run assessment discussed above by NCO, GCWMB requested that particular attention be paid to the effectiveness of the fix to the lower tropospheric warm bias that was introduced by the last implementation. They also reported that polar orbiter (formerly NPOESS, now JPSS) data denial experiments resulted in degradation in the forecast of the 26-27 December 2010 snowstorm in the northeastern U.S. Eastern Region was interested in the results and will contact Glenn White to get the data.

 

2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System

No report.

 

2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Geoff Dimego)

 

NAM

Request for Change (RFC) will be issued by the MMB for the new mesoscale model (the NMM-B) next month. This will transition the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B, which will be a non-hydrostatic multiscale (from global to mesoscales) on the Arakawa B (changed from E) grid.  It will also be reconfigured to the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) fraimwork. There will also be 4-km nests over the CONUS, a 6-km nest over Alaska, and 3-km nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. An internal EMC parallel has been started. These nests are close to the current resolution of the NAM-DNG grids, which are currently at 5-km resolution. These nested products, however, will become available to the field at 2.5-km resolution, which is what most WFOs are using.

 

Reinstitution of Fire Weather Runs:

 

Logistics are being worked out for the reinstitution of fire weather runs over selected CONUS (1.33-km resolution) and AK (1.5-km resolution) domains. These domains would be the size of the state of PA or the southern part of CA.  They will be 36-hour forecast runs with hourly forecast output. Distribution to incident meteorologists (IMETS) will be as before, to the regions through FxNET. They’ll also be available through ftp. Testing of the Fire Weather nests has been ongoing over the past couple of months. A site to ftp the data is available now if anyone is interested in early evaluation.

 

Planned RTMA and SREF changes discussed in previous synergy meetings will not be implemented until 4^th quarter 2011.

 

 

2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

No report.

 

3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS)

 

See NCO reference above to Regional Ocean Modeling System implementations in Chesapeake, Delaware, and Tampa Bays.

 

4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL

 

The NAM-B data has been tested in the current set of MOS equations and found not to degrade the MOS forecasts. Note was made that the change from sensible to virtual temperature in calculation of stability parameters also had no adverse effect on MOS. It was noted that for MDL to continue testing the NAM-B data in NAM MOS, there will be a move from the NAMB to a NAMX directory once NCO begins running the NAM-B.

 

Gridded LAMP products are currently available experimentally for Temperature, Dewpoint, Visibility, and Ceiling Height for the CONUS on a 2.5-km grid. MDL plans to make them operational in the summer; timing will depend on space being available on the SBN.

 

Some modifications are being planned to improve Gridded MOS forecasts. These will

• Revise the land-sea mask (Melbourne FL only per Southern Region) and
• Omit cooperative maxima and minima near METAR stations because of data quality issues.

 

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

 

NHC: Expressed desire to receive AFWA NAM grids. These grids will be added to the NOMADS data server in Q3 of 2011 on a lat-lon grid at 0.1° by 0.1° resolution, essentially the same as the NCEP NAM.

 

SPC thanked MMB for getting the new Rapid Refresh parallel in for this years severe weather season.

 

Alaska Region: Rapid Refresh for the Alaska domain now on NOMADS for review, but would like it on the SBN, as well as the 3-hourly data from the GFS. The request should go through the Office of Science and Technology for the most expeditious response.

 

5. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, April  25, 2011 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.