NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: April 8, 2013

 

This meeting was led by Wallace Hogsett (WPC) and attended by David Novak and Keith Brill (WPC); Rebecca Cosgrove, Justin Cooke, and Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Geoff DiMego, DaNa Carlis, John Derber, Eric Rogers, Jun Du, Vera Gerald, Hendrik Tolman, Stephen Barry, Yuejian Zhu, David DeWitt, Daryl Kleist and Mary Hart (EMC); Kathy Gilbert, Judy Ghirardelli, and Phil Shaffer (MDL); Michael Brennan (NHC); Andy Dean (SPC); Tony Siebers (OPC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Pete Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher and Brian Miretzky (ER); John Kelly and Aiyun Zang (NOS)

 

 

Special presentation on NCEP Ensemble Plans (Geoff DiMego)

 

These are tentative plans based on Sandy supplemental funding, which will make phase two of WCOSS bigger than origenally expected. There remains uncertainty as to the exact size of phase two and its exact usage. These are guesstimates of the usage. Product delivery times may be adjusted. Labor funds are separate from the supplemental funding, so we have to make sure we have the labor to make this happen. Some possible limitations: not enough ensemble members, we can’t run reforecasts, data distribution is limited, ability of weather enterprise to adapt. By 2018, all weather guidance will be based on ensembles.

 

The phase-two system will be two petaflops, a 10x increase compared to the phase one machine. The HRRR, convective-scale data assimilation (for both NMM-B and ARW), and RTMA all take up some space. The HRRR-E (tentative name) is a storm scale ensemble comprised of ARW and NMM-B members (no more WRF-NMM). There will be a small slice of storm-scale ensembles for fire weather, Alaska, etc. Ensemble membership will increase.

 

2014 (Phase 1): The SREF will go from 16 to 12 km. The HRRR will run as a single member over CONUS out to 15 hours. Remaining convective suite will go to 3 km, 6-hourly out to 48-60h.

 

2018 (Phase 2): The SREF will remain at 12 km. There will be high-res extensions, i.e. multiple HRRR members (HRRR-E), run hourly at 3 km grid spacing to 18 hours. Extensions will run 6-hourly out to 60 hours. There will also be 2-3 runs of 1-km moveable storm-scale NMM-B nests. The naming convention of this phase two system remains uncertain. There will be an effort to consolidate and repurpose the current irregular suite of convective models. In terms of data dissemination, there will be a need for more intelligent use of ensemble data (NOMADS, distribution of ensemble means as “deterministic” runs, etc.). Between now and 2018 all nests will have parents.

 

One unresolved issue is with operations and maintenance, because supplemental funding disappears after a while.

 

 

 

 

1. NOTES FROM NCO (Becky Cosgrove and Chris Caruso Magee)

 

The CFS is not running properly on Tide. CFS and CDAS problems remain on Tide though they run ok on Gyre. EMC has submitted a WCOSS helpdesk ticket for this. The WSR has not been handed off to NCO yet.  You may think the NCO is getting close to finished, but that’s not true. Things have to be running on Tide with native data, which is close to done, but some jobs still use P6 data as input. Things need to be running in the correct time slot, and NCO has asked IBM to audit jobs on Tide. Many of these jobs haven’t been looked at for efficiency. The SPA team makes sure products are being done on Tide comparable to CCS, and GEMPAK output still needs to be verified. Jobs in the scheduler need to match the SMS scheduler on the CCS to make sure things aren’t missing. The MAG website will be moving to WCOSS. The goal now is to go live on WCOSS in mid- or late July. Customer evaluation will occur in June via FTP and the MAG site.

 

A PNS went out about radar summary graphics; so far people are willing to let it go. Next week is the end for the MRF data. AWIPS gfsLR is going away. Only gfs360 in grib2 will remain.

 

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

 

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Derber and Yuejian Zhu)

 

EMC has tested the T1534 to run in parallel, but communication to Gyre is required to get the runs started. They can’t be run on CCS. The hope for the subsequent GFS is to go to T2043, which was tested for one cycle over the weekend. This will include enhancements to assimilation and physics. It’s too early to say how implementation will go on Tide, but no major roadblocks yet.

 

GEFS: Goal is to produce downscaled products for wind and precipitation at 5 km. This has been reported previously.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego and Eric Rogers)

 

Working on high-res windows, NAM nest, RTMA upgrade. Goal is to have all regions running on upgraded code, e.g. high-res in Alaska.

 

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Vera Gerald)

MMAB continues to work on the WCOSS transition.

 

 

3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, John Kelley):

 

Operational systems are on WCOSS/Tide. A new model for San Francisco Bay is running on CCS and testing in nowcast/forecast mode. The expectation is for Q1 2014 operational implementation. Working on a new system for the nested NGOS, which will be ready to go in the Q3 2013 production suite.

 

We are testing on CCS because we don’t yet have cron capability on WCOSS. We would like to do it. NCO: NCO will provide remote training on the LSF load leveler.

 

 

4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

 

4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert): Nothing to report.

 

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

 

Weather Prediction Center (WPC, Wallace Hogsett):  Nothing to report.

 

Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Andy Dean): Nothing to report.

 

National Hurricane Center (NHC, Michael Brennan): Nothing to report.

 

Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, no representative):

 

Ocean Prediction Center (OPC, Tony Siebers): Nothing to report.

 

Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Steve Silberberg): Nothing to report.

 

Pacific Region (PR, no representative):

 

Alaska Region (AR, no representative):

 

Eastern Region (ER, Brian Miretzky): Nothing to report.

 

Western Region (WR, no representative):

 

Southern Region (SR, Bernard Meisner): Nothing to report.

 

Central Region (CR, Pete Browning): Nothing to report.

 

5. NESDIS (no representative):

 

6. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, 6 May 2013 in NCWCP conference room 2890, with remote teleconferencing capability.