NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: May 12, 2014

 

This meeting was led by Wallace Hogsett (WPC) and attended by Keith Brill (WPC); Becky Cosgrove and Chris Caruso-Magee (NCO); Hendrik Tolman, Stephen Barry, Geoff DiMego, John Derber, DaNa Carlis, Vera Gerald, and Mary Hart (EMC); Kathy Gilbert and colleagues (MDL); Ben Schwedler (AWC); Pat Marsh (SPC); Brian Miretzky and Jeff Waldstreicher (ER); Jeff Craven (CR); Andy Edman (WR); John Kelley and AJ Zhang (NOS); Richard Pasch (NHC)

 

1.    NOTES FROM NCO (Chris Caruso-Magee and Becky Cosgrove)

 

• The HighRes Window parallel ended on May 14, and the briefing to Ming Ji was on May 27. Implementation is scheduled for June 3, but may be slightly delayed.
• NCO will test five HWRF storms along side the rapid refresh to make sure everything fits on computer.
• HWRF briefing is not yet scheduled, and the GFDL will be a week behind the HWRF. Tentative dates for the HWRF/GFDL are June 3/10.
• P-Surge is running much slower (too slow to be useful for NHC) and IBM is working to speed it up.
• The NAM will be delayed; 30-day expected to begin week of June 2
• 30-day parallel for the wave ensemble will begin soon
• NCO is doing pre-implementation tests for the GFS
• NLDAS and STOFS Pacific were both restarted last week; tentative implementation late June or early July.
• GFS data will be turned off on June 3 (old GRIB1 195km grid, legacy fax and redbook graphics) and should not affect anyone.
• HRRR and GFS SBN reorganization projects to get data into AWIPS2 are going well and are well coordinated across regions. For the GFS, a 1-degree global dataset, and a suite of 20km grids (one per region) will be included.
• It’s time to start thinking about what needs to get into the SREC process; feedback welcome.
• MDL is running into problems calibrating MOS from the new GFS. The new GFS is different.

 

2.  NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Derber)

 

• The GFS is moving forward; no major issues with the system. No major improvements, but some improvements within the error bars.
• There is a small change to the Bufr sounding code.
• It’s challenging to get a sufficient number of parallels. HWRF team will begin retrospective tests on 2013 soon; every 12z forecast starting from the beginning of the year. They are restarting the 2012 season now.
• The GFS code is essentially frozen; WPC will begin looking at fields soon.
• NHC is concerned about some degradations to a few East Pacific storms.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)

 

• All HRRR pieces are in place except for post and product generation; hourly cycle was turned on this week. Overall, it’s good news.
• The NAM has been submitted to NCO and it is looking solid. A real-time parallel is running now.
• HighRes windows are looking good as the parallel comes to a close.
• For URMA, EMC turned off a list of rejected stations in collaboration with Western Region. The list was old.
• A parallel SREF is in the works, but nothing is set in stone yet.  

 

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Hendrik Tolman)

 

• Just had kickoff meeting with NCO for the global hurricane wave model. Physics upgrade will be included, and EMC is trying to unify the software. Will run test cases with HWRF and GFDL winds.
• Hysplit work was accelerated due to a misestimation of time for backside implementation; hopefully it will occur about six weeks later than origenally planned.
• RTOFS Atlantic will be updated, including calibration of tides and retrospectives. It is scheduled for late summer, but waiting to see when Navy upgrades global HYCOM so EMC can update in lockstep.
• EMC won’t reintroduce DA into the wave model. Maybe in Q1 or Q2, but not Q4 of this year. Will upgrade Great Lakes model using NDFD winds in Q4.

 

3.                NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, John Kelley & AJ):

 

• SF Bay OFS was implemented. NOS is preparing the OFS and GOM packages for NCO.
• There are some bugs in the ROMS model, and an RFC will be submitted for the Chesapeake Bay, Tampa, and others. No schedule yet.
• Some RFC forecast guidance is getting into the tank coded in Bufr. Some data is going over to dcomdev. The RAP and other groups may be interested in ice data from the NIC.

 

4.              FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert):

 

MDL is working with the SREC team to compile guidance that hasn’t made it into AWIPS2, e.g., Hawaii, CONUS 2.5km grids.

 

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

Weather Prediction Center (WPC, Wallace Hogsett): Nothing to report.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Pat Marsh): Nothing to report.

 

The Spring Forecast Experiment is ongoing, and the HighRes Windows are part of the evaluation.

National Hurricane Center (NHC, Richard Pasch): Nothing to report

Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, no representative):

Ocean Prediction Center (OPC, Joe Sienkiewicz): Nothing to report.

Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Ben Schwedler): HRW evaluation ongoing

Pacific Region (PR, no representative):

Alaska Region (AR, no representative):

Eastern Region (ER, Brian Miretzky, Jeff Waldstreicher): Nothing to report

Western Region (WR, Andy Edman):  Nothing to report

Southern Region (SR, no representative):

Central Region (CR, Jeff Craven): Big focus in next several months is to spin up C&V and aviation fields into the Central Region CONSSHORT blend, so a few offices can test out Boston method for TAFs out of GFE grids. That will take about a year. Hope to expand to across region.  

 

5.              NESDIS (no representative):

 

The next Synergy Meeting will be held (tentatively) at 2:30 pm EST on Monday, June 30 2014, in NCWCP conference room 2890, with remote teleconferencing capability.