NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights: May 30, 2006

 

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and attended by Mark Iredell, Bill Bua, Dan Pawlak, Geoff Dimego, Joe Carr, Keith Brill, Dave Plummer, John Ward, Mary Hart,  Regina Nichols, Larry Burroughs, and David Michaud.  Additionally, SPC’s Steve Weiss, AWC’s Steven Silberburg, and UCAR/COMET’s Stephen Jascourt attended by remote conference.

 

1. CCS

John Ward reported  the NCEP component (GFS) of the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)  was implemented at 12Z Tuesday May 30 and there have been no problems.  Frost will be shut down in preparation for the Central Computing System (CCS) upgrade, and Snow will follow on June 25^th.   A “min-system” – Aqua – will be installed the first week of June to replace Frost.  The impact of Frost being shut down will be to users utilizing the Research and Development portion of the CCS.  A moratorium will be placed on the entire CCS by the end of August in preparation for the new CCS going (intended) operational in Jan 2007. 

 

David Michaud reported the GFDL hurricane model upgrade was implemented as well.  The “new” GFDL contains a Ferrier microphysics package and has exhibited ~10% improvement over the previous GFDL with intensity forecasts and at least 15% improvement in track forecast.  This new version better handles the impact of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico on tropical systems.

 

David also reported the SREF will be run in test mode at 4 cycles per day out to f63 in preparation for operational implementation this summer.

 

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

 

2a. Global Modeling Branch:

Mark Iredell reported testing of the next version of the GFS (minor implementation) continues, but the code is ready to be handed off to NCO.  The GFS bundle includes hybrid sigma/p vertical coordinate system, better glacial ice physics, and ozone improvements; and is targeted for implemented in July pending formal evaluation.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB):

NMM/NAM-WRF:  Geoff Dimego reported the formal briefing on the WRF parallel is June 7.  The feedback and statistics show that parallel is “a little better in some areas, worse in others”.   Surface temperatures will remain turned off for ingest in the NDAS, however the 1/12^th degree SST field will be utilized.  No file logistics issues are anticipated when this becomes operational.  The Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) is in field evaluation currently, on track for June implementation, and on track for OB 7.2 with an initial suite of fields to include temp, wind and moisture (eventually expanded to all NDFD parameters). 

 

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: 

Nothing additional to report.

 

2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System:

Development is continuing on bias correction, though it won’t be ready to implement before the moratorium

 

2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): 

This is Larry Burroughs finale at the meetings (he retires in June).  Larry reported that the “Genesis Tracker” (low tracker) was implemented and MMAB will be looking to implement the Great Lakes WaveWatch3 in July.

 

3.     FEEDBACK FROM OPERATIONAL CENTERS

No center specific feedback was forwarded, however,  Stephen Jascourt and Peter Manousos raised the issue on behalf of CR concerning non-uniform use of precip type algorithms across different model outputs.  For example, the GFS post process precip type using the NCEP algorithm in its grids, but utilizes Ramer in the BUFR output.  At the same time the NAM/WRF pand SREF rovides a dominant ptype output.  This represents a training nightmare and adds an extra level of difficulty when composing model comparisons during in winter events.  Although there are no plans to rectify this issue in the short term, EMC will address this issue as part of the “Unified Post” effort (standardize available post processed fields) across the NCEP model suite.  Furthermore, the global branch is in the process of hiring someone dedicated to post-processor issues

 

4. The next meeting will be held Monday June 26 2006 at noon in EMC Rm 209 with remote conference capability.