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EMC/HPC/MPC/NCO/CPC Synergy Meeting Highlights 11/02/03

This meeting was led by Bill Bua and was attended by Hua Lu Pan, Zoltan Toth, Dave Michaud, John Ward, Ed Danaher, James Hoke, Keith Brill, and Larry Burroughs.

1. IBM SP and CCS

John Ward reported that the CCS continued to run smoothly in October (99.8% on-time delivery), though earlier problems reflected more negatively on the 3^rd quarter as a whole. The next IBM upgrade will occur in June 2004, before which it is anticipated that we will have 12-18 implementations.

2. Notes from EMC

a. Global Modeling Group: Hua-Lu Pan reported that the parallel test of an analysis upgrade seems to be performing adequately, and has a target implementation date in November (to be determined by NCO). The sub-grid scale orographic forcing parameterization is ready to go into parallel. This is expected to have a significant impact on lee-side cyclogenesis, so it will be important to look at the maps during the winter season, when this impact is most important.

b. Mesoscale Modeling Group: No representative, but discussion by John Ward included implementation of an 8-day extension to the Eta-12 for the purpose of assisting the WFO forecasters in initializing their day-7 grids in IFPS. Geoff DiMego has reported separately that an Eta parallel is now running; it should be available to HPC through NAWIPS via EtaX and should be assessed by HPC personnel with an eye toward a late winter implementation.

c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: The Global EPS upgrade, adding a control and 5 pairs at Aoff-times@ (06 and 18 UTC), is still on track to be implemented before the Holiday Moratorium. A North American ensemble prediction system (NAEPS) is being considered, in conjunction with the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). For now, data will be exchanged for creation of combined ensemble products and their verification. Initial plans for this long-term project will be finalized in late November. It is anticipated that the first implementation of the NAEPS will occur in the fall of 2004, with products available separately from each ensemble forecast system separately. In fall of 2005, after verification of improved results, products from the two ensemble prediction systems will be put together in a super-ensemble.

The NWS is conducting the Winter Storm Reconnaissance program once again from 1/20-3/15/04. Requests for additional observational data to improve 1-4 day forecasts for severe winter weather events will be sent by the WFOs (through their regions), and by NCEP Service Centers. Two USAF C130s and the NOAA G4 will be available for dropsonde observations. The NCEP point of contact is Buzz Burek.

d. Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Group: No representative. Geoff DiMego reported separately that there is a parallel SREF running for implementation. If possible (i.e. it can be viewed by HPC forecasters), HPC should evaluate it for winter implementation.

e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Larry Burroughs stated that the Global visibility fields, Eta visibility fields, and Global Vessel Icing are in parallel. The response from users so far has been good. Graphics are available on the web, but will not be available in AWIPS until OB5 (scheduled for Spring 2005).

3. Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC)

HPC has provided a response to Hua-Lu Pan regarding the latest GFS parallel. No negative responses have been received to date. Hua-Lu reported that the new GFS briefing to Dr. Uccellini would be on 10 November 2003.

4. Next Meeting Monday December 1st, 2003 at noon in room 209.