CW3E AR Update: 02 April Outlook

April 02, 2018

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Atmospheric river forecast to impact Northern California later this week

• GFS Ensemble members are currently forecasting a potentially strong to extreme AR over Northern California later this week
• There is currently large uncertainty in the onset, duration, and magnitude of AR conditions, creating uncertainties in the potential impacts of this event
• >5 inches of precipitation could fall during this event over the high elevations of the Coastal and Sierra Nevada Mountains in Northern California
• The GFS is currently suggesting freezing levels >8,000 feet for most of this event, which may lead to most precipitation over the high Sierra falling as rain

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-141 hour GFS forecast Valid 1200 UTC 02 April – 0900 UTC 08 April 2018

Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, and B. Kawzenuk; 1 PM PT Monday 02 April 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental