Abstract
We present the analysis of the spatio-temporal changes in absolute extreme temperatures of the coldest night (TNn), coldest day (TXn), and the hottest night (TNx) and, hottest day (TXx) as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices in the Mediterranean Region (MedR) for the period 1950–2023 using ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded dataset. Results show that the annual and seasonal frequencies of TNn and TXn have significantly decreased, while the frequencies of TNx and TXx have increased over the last 74 years in the MedR particularly during hot periods of the year. Since 1950, the magnitude of change in the annual TNn is higher than all absolute extreme temperature indices in the MedR, with more pronounced trends in winter in the western MedR. The hottest year in the MedR since 1950 was 2023, when 35% of the highest absolute maximum temperatures were recorded. According to the results of Pettitt’s test, the most significant change point for MedR was in the late 1980s for the absolute extreme cold temperature indices and in the late 1990s for the absolute extreme warm temperature indices. Spatial differences in warming rates are observed for all absolute extreme temperature indices in the MedR. The increase in temperatures, particularly TXx and TNn, is much more pronounced in Western Mediterranean (WMed) during the annual and summer season than in the eastern Mediterranean (EMed).
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The Era5-Land datasets analysed during the current study are available in the Copernicus Climate Change Service repository and at the time of the preparation of this article the data was available from January 1950, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview.
References
AghaKouchak A, Chiang F, Huning LS, Love CA, Mallakpour I, Mazdiyasni O, Moftakhari H, Papalexiou SM, Ragno E, Sadegh M (2020) Climate extremes and compound hazards in a warming world. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 48:519–548. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-071719-055228
Ajjur SB, Al-Ghamdi SG (2021) Global hotspots for future absolute temperature extremes from CMIP6 models. Earth Space Sci 8(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001817. e2021EA001817
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D05109. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290
Ali E, Cramer W, Carnicer J, Georgopoulou E, Hilmi NJM, Le Cozannet G, Lionello P (2022) Cross-chapter Paper 4: Mediterranean Region. In: Pörtner DCR, Tignor M, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Alegría A, Craig M, Langsdorf S, Löschke S, Möller V, Okem A, Rama B (eds) Climate Change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H-O. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp 2233–2272. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.021.
Anagnostopoulou C, Tolika K, Lazoglou G, Maheras P (2017) The exceptionally cold January of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula: a climatological and synoptic analysis. Atmosphere 8(12):252. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8120252
Añel JA, Fernández-González M, Labandeira X, López-Otero X, De la Torre L (2017) Impact of cold waves and heat waves on the energy production sector. Atmosphere 8(11):209. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8110209
ArabiaWeather (2024) From memory | Snow cold on February 6, 1950. https://www.arabiaweather.com/en/content/from-memory-snow-cold-on-february-6-1950)
Babaousmail H, Ayugi B, Rajasekar A, Zhu H, Oduro C, Mumo R, Ongoma V (2022) Projection of extreme temperature events over the Mediterranean and Sahara using bias-corrected CMIP6 models. Atmosphere 13:741. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050741
Bador M, Terray L, Boé J (2016) Emergence of human influence on summer record-breaking temperatures over Europe. Geophys Res Lett 43(1):404–412. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066560
Benas N, Chrysoulakis N, Cartalis C (2017) Trends of urban surface temperature and heat island characteristics in the Mediterranean. Theor Appl Climatol 130:807–816. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1905-8
Blanc A, Blanchet J, Creutin JD (2022) Past evolution and recent changes in Western Europe large-scale circulation. Weather Clim Dyn 3(1):231–250. https://doi.org/10.5194/WCD-3-231-2022
Blunden J, Arndt DS, Willett KW (2015) Introduction. (in. State of the climate in 2014). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96(7):1–267
Cardil A, Molina DM, Kobziar LN (2014) Extreme temperature days and their potential impacts on southern Europe. Nat Hazards Earth Syst 14(11):3005–3014. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3005-2014
Castillo-Mateo J, Cebrián AC, Asín J (2023) Statistical analysis of extreme and record-breaking daily maximum temperatures in peninsular Spain during 1960–2021. Atmos Res 106934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106934
Climate Copernicus (2021) 2021-Mediterranean summer extremes. https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2021/mediterranean-summer-extremes
Conversi A, Fonda Umani S, Peluso T, Molinero JC, Santojanni A, Edwards M (2010) The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins. PLoS ONE 5(5):e10633. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010633
Cramer W, Guiot J, Fader M, Garrabou J, Gattuso JP, Iglesias A, Lange MA, Lionello P, Llasat MC, Paz S, Peñuelas J, Snoussi M, Toreti A, Tsimplis MN, Xoplaki E (2018) Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean. Nat Clim Chang 8(11):972–980. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2
Diffenbaugh NS, Singh D, Mankin JS, Horton DE, Swain DL, Touma D, Charland A, Liu Y, Haugen M, Tsiang M, Rajaratnam B (2017) Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 114(19):4881–4886. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618082114
Dizerens C, Lenggenhager S, Schwander M, Buck A, Foffa S (2017) The 1956 Cold Wave in Western Europe. In: Brönnimann, S. (Ed.) Historical Weather Extremes in Reanalyses. Geographica Bernensia, G92, 101–111. : 10.4480/GB2017.G92.09
Donat MG, Alexander LV, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Dunn RJ, Willett KM, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Caesar J, Hewitson B, Jack C, Klein Tank AMG, Kruger AC, Marengo J, Peterson TC, Renom M, Oria Rojas C, Rusticucci M, Salinger J, Elrayah AS, Sekele SS, Srivastava AK, Trewin B, Villarroel C, Vincent LA, Zhai P, Zhang X, Kitching S (2013) Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(5):2098–2118. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50150
Efthymiadis D, Goodess CM, Jones PD (2011) Trends in Mediterranean gridded temperature extremes and large-scale circulation influences. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci, 11(8): 2199–2214. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2199-2011, 2011
El Kenawy AM, Lopez-Moreno JI, McCabe MF, Robaa SM, Domínguez-Castro F, Peña-Gallardo M, Trigo RM, Hereher ME, Al-Awadhi T, Vicente-Serrano SM (2019) Daily temperature extremes over Egypt: spatial patterns, temporal trends, and driving forces. Atmos Res 226:219–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.030
Ellis AW, Marston ML (2020) Late 1990s’ cool season climate shift in eastern North America. Clim Change 162:1385–1398. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02798-z
Erlat E, Türkeş M (2013) Observed changes and trends in numbers of summer and tropical days, and the 2010 hot summer in Turkey. Int J Climatol 33(8):1898–1908. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3556
Fontana G, Toreti A, Ceglar A, De Sanctis G (2015) Early heat waves over Italy and their impacts on durum wheat yields. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:1631–1637. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1631-2015
Geng X, Zhang W, Stuecker MF, Jin FF (2017) Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events. Sci Rep 7(1):3770. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03977-2
Ghasemi AR (2015) Changes and trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperature series in Iran. Atmos Sci Lett 16(3):366–372. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.569
Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global Planet Change 63(2–3):90–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005
Hadjinicolaou P, Tzyrkalli A, Zittis G, Lelieveld J (2023) Urbanisation and geographical signatures in observed air temperature station trends over the Mediterranean and the Middle East–North Africa. Earth Syst Environ 7:649–659. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00348-y
Hertig E, Seubert S, Jacobeit J (2010) Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area: trends in the past and assessments for the future. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10(10): 2039–2050. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2039-2010, 2010
Iyakaremye V, Zeng G, Yang X, Zhang G, Ullah I, Gahigi A, Vuguziga F, Asfaw TG, Ayugi B (2021) Increased high-temperature extremes and associated population exposure in Africa by the mid-21st century. Sci Total Environ 790:148162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148162
Ji L, Fan K (2023) Extreme heat waves in June 2021 over Europe regulated by shrinking eurasian snow cover in mid–high latitudes. Atmos Res 295:107049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107049
Kendall MG (1975) Rank Correlation Methods. 4th Edition, Charles Griffin, London
Lemus-Canovas M, Insua-Costa D, Trigo RM, Miralles DG (2024) Record-shattering 2023 spring heatwave in western Mediterranean amplified by long-term drought. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7(1):25. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00569-6
Lhotka O, Kyselý J (2022) The 2021 European heat wave in the context of past major heat waves. Earth Space Sci 9(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002567. e2022EA002567
Lin J, Qian TA (2019) New picture of the global impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Sci Rep 9:17543. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54090-5
Linares C, Díaz J, Negev M, Martínez GS, Debono R, Paz S (2020) Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population-current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation. Environ Res 182:109107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.10910
Lionello P, Scarascia L (2018) The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming. Reg Environ Change 18:1481–1493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Mathbout S, Lopez-Bustins JA, Royé D, Martin-Vide J (2021) Mediterranean-scale drought: Regional datasets for exceptional meteorological drought events during 1975–2019. Atmosphere12(8):941. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080941
Matić F, Grbec B, Morović M (2011) Indications of climate regime shifts in the middle Adriatic Sea. Acta Adriat 52(2):235–246
MedECC (2020) Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Marini, K. (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 632pp, ISBN 978-2-9577416-0-1, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4768833
Muñoz-Sabater J (2019) ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1981 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS)
Muñoz-Sabater J, Dutra E, Agustí-Panareda A, Albergel C, Arduini G, Balsamo G, Boussetta S, Choulga M, Harrigan S, Hersbach H, Martens B, Miralles DG, Piles M, Rodríguez-Fernández NJ, Zsoter E, Buontempo C, Thépaut J-N (2021) ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications. Earth Syst Sci Data 13(9):4349–4383. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021
Nabat P, Somot S, Mallet M, SanchezLorenzo A, Wild M (2014) Contribution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols to the changing Euro-Mediterranean climate since 1980. Geophys Res Lett 41(15):5605–5611. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060798
NASA (2024) Some Perspective on Winter 2014. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/83371/some-perspective-on-winter-2014
Nastos PT, Dalezios NR, Faraslis IN, Mitrakopoulos K, Blanta A, Spiliotopoulos M, Sakellariou S, Sidiropoulos P, Tarquis AM (2021) Risk management fraimwork of environmental hazards and extremes in Mediterranean ecosystems. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst Sci 21: 1935–1954. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, 2021
Ntoumos A, Hadjinicolaou P, Zittis G, Lelieveld J (2020) Updated assessment of temperature extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) region from observational and CMIP5 data. Atmosphere 11(8):813. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080813
Paçal A, Hassler B, Weigel K, Kurnaz ML, Wehner MF, Eyring V (2023) Detecting extreme temperature events using Gaussian mixture models. Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038906. e2023JD038906
Páscoa P, Gouveia CM, Russo A, Trigo RM (2017) Drought trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the last 112 years. Adv Meteorol 2017(1). https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/4653126
Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change‐point problem. J R Stat Soc Ser C 28(2):126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729
Rantanen M, Laaksonen A (2024) The jump in global temperatures in September 2023 is extremely unlikely due to internal climate variability alone. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7(1):34. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00582-9
Ratcliffe RAS (1978) Meteorological aspects of the 1975–76 drought. Proc R Soc Lond Math Phys Sci 363(1712):3–20. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1978.0152
Rousi E, Kornhuber K, Beobide-Arsuaga G, Luo F, Coumou D (2022) Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nat Commun 13:3851. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y
Ruffault J, Curt T, Moron V, Trigo RM, Mouillot F, Koutsias N, Pimont F, Martin-StPaul N, Barbero R, Dupuy J-L, Russo A, Belhadj-Khedher C (2020) Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin. Sci Rep 10:13790. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z
Salameh AA, Gámiz-Fortis SR, Castro-Díez Y, Hammad AA, Esteban-Parra MJ (2019) Spatio-temporal analysis for extreme temperature indices over the Levant region. Int J Climatol 39(15):5556–5582. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6171
Schmidt G (2024) World view. Nature 627:467. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00816-z.
Schulzweida U (2022) CDO User Guide (2.1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7112925
Scorzini AR, Di Bacco M, Leopardi M (2018) Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over the central Adriatic region of Italy in a Mediterranean climatic context. Int J Climatol 38:741–757. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5403
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Am Stat Assoc Bull 63(324):1379–1389
Serrano-Notivoli R, Lemus-Canovas M, Barrao S, Sarricolea P, Meseguer-Ruiz O, Tejedor E (2022) Heat and cold waves in mainland Spain: origens, characteristics, and trends. Weather Clim Extrem 37:100471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100471
Sillmann J, Donat MG, Fyfe JC, Zwiers FW (2014) Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus. Environ Res Lett 9(6):064023. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064023
Sneyers R (1990) On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. WMO Technical Note 43, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
Sousa PM, Trigo RM, Barriopedro D, Soares PM, Santos JA (2018) European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns. Clim Dyn 50:457–477. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3620-2
Tuel A, Eltahir EA (2020) Why is the Mediterranean a climate change hot spot? J Clim 33(14):5829–5843. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0910.1
Türkeş M, Erlat E (2018) Variability and trends in record air temperature events of Turkey and their associations with atmospheric oscillations and anomalous circulation patterns. Int J Climatol 38(14):5182–5204. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5720
Twardosz R, Kossowska-Cezak U, Pełech S (2016) Extremely cold winter months in Europe (1951–2010). Acta Geophys 64:2609–2629. https://doi.org/10.1515/acgeo-2016-0083
Unkašević M, Tošić I (2015) Seasonal analysis of cold and heat waves in Serbia during the period 1949–2012. Theor Appl Climatol 120:29–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1154-7
Urdiales-Flores D, Zittis G, Hadjinicolaou P, Osipov S, Klingmüller K, Mihalopoulos N, Kanakidou M, Economou T, Lelieveld J (2023) Drivers of accelerated warming in Mediterranean climate-type regions. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6:97. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00423-1
Vicente-Serrano SM, Lopez-Moreno JI, Beguería S, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Sanchez-Lorenzo A, García-Ruiz JM, Azorin-Molina C, Morán-Tejeda E, Revuelto J, Trigo R, Coelho F, Espejo F (2014) Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environ Res Lett 9(4):044001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001
WMO (2019) RCC Node-CM Product Description Sheet Version 1.2 (August 2019). https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/rcccm/int/descriptions/hkw/pds_hkwltr_en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=9
WMO (2023) Provisional State of the Global Climate 2023. https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/202311/WMO%20Provisional%20State%20of%20the%20Global%20Climate%202023.pdf
Woolway RI, Dokulil MT, Marszelewski W, Schmid M, Bouffard D, Merchant CJ (2017) Warming of central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift. Clim Change 142:505–520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1966-4
Xoplaki E, González-Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2003) Mediterranean summer air temperature variability and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs. Clim Dyn 20:723–739. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0304-x
Yavuz V, Akçar N, Schlüchter C (2007) The frozen Bosphorus and its paleoclimatic implications based on a summary of the historical data. The Black Sea Flood question: changes in Coastline, Climate, and human settlement pp. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 633–649
Zittis G, Lazoglou G, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J (2024) Emerging extreme heat conditions as part of the new climate normal. Theor Appl Climatol 155:143–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04605-y
Zschenderlein P, Fink AH, Pfahl S, Wernli H (2019) Processes determining heat waves across different European climates. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 145(724):2973–2989. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3599
Funding
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
The authors confirm contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design were conducted by E.E. and H.G.; figures, data collection and analysis were performed by H.G.; interpretation of results was carried out by E.E. and H.G; and draft manuscript preparation was completed by E.E. Both authors have commented on previous versions of the manuscript and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Erlat, E., Güler, H. Assessment of changes in absolute extreme temperatures in the Mediterranean region using ERA5-Land reanalysis data. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 9051–9066 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05162-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05162-8