Abstract
Based on a 153-year (1948–2100) transient simulation of East Asian climate performed by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the potential future changes in mean and extreme climates over China in association with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed in this study. Results show that annual temperature rises over the whole of China, with a greater magnitude of around 0.6°C compared to the global mean increase, at the time of a 2°C global warming. Large-scale surface warming gets stronger towards the high latitudes and on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while it is similar in magnitude but somewhat different in spatial pattern between seasons. Annual precipitation increases by 5.2%, and seasonal precipitation increases by 4.2%–8.5% with respect to the 1986–2005 climatology. At the large scale, apart from in boreal winter when precipitation increases in northern China but decreases in southern China, annual and seasonal precipitation increases in western and southeastern China but decreases over the rest of the country. Nationwide extreme warm (cold) temperature events increase (decrease). With respect to the 1986–2005 climatology, the country-averaged annual extreme precipitation events R5d, SDII, R95T, and R10 increase by 5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d−1, 6.6%, and 0.4 d respectively, and CDD decreases by 0.5 d. There is a large spatial variability in R10 and CDD changes.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., eds. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 1–996
Ding Y H, Ren G Y, Zhao Z C, et al. Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress. Adv Atmos Sci, 2007, 24: 954–971
Schneider S H, Semenov S, Patwardhan A, et al. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 779–810
Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature, 2009, 458: 1158–1163
Fischlin A, Midgley G F, Price J T, et al. Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 211–272
Ding Z L, Duan X N, Ge Q S, et al. Control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 2050: A calculation on the emission rights of different countries. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2009, 52: 1447–14
Gleick P H, Adams R M, Amasino R M, et al. Climate change and the integrity of science. Science, 2010, 328: 689–690
Guivarch C, Hallegatte S. Existing infrastructure and the 2°C target. Clim Change, 2011, 109: 801–805
Rogelj J, Hare W, Lowe J, et al. Emission pathways consistent with a 2°C global temperature limit. Nat Clim Chang, 2011, 1: 413–418
van Vuuren D P, Stehfest E, den Elzen M G J, et al. RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Clim Change, 2011, 109: 95–116
Joshi M, Hawkins E, Sutton R, et al. Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nat Clim Chang, 2011, 1: 407–412
Kaplan J O, New M. Arctic climate change with a 2°C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change. Clim Change, 2006, 79: 213–241
Giannakopoulos C, Le Sager P, Bindi M, et al. Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2°C global warming. Glob Planet Change, 2009, 68: 209–224
May W. The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. Clim Dyn, 2011, 37: 1843–1868
May W. Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C. Clim Change, 2012, 110: 619–644
Anderson B T. Intensification of seasonal extremes given a 2°C global warming target. Clim Change, 2012, 112: 325–337
Xu Y, Xu C H, Gao X J, et al. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin of China in the 21st century. Quat Int, 2009, 208: 44–52
Wang H J, Sun J Q, Chen H P, et al. Extreme climate in China: Facts, simulation and projection. Meteorol Z, 2012, 21: 279–304
Jiang D, Zhang Y, Sun J Q. Ensemble projection of 1–3°C warming in China. Chin Sci Bull, 2009, 54: 3326–3334
Jiang D, Fu Y H. Climate change over China with a 2°C global warming (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2012, 36: 234–246
Gao X J, Xu Y, Zhao Z C, et al. On the role of resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asia precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol, 2006, 86: 173–185
Ju L X, Wang H J, Jiang D. Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum climate over East Asia with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 2007, 248: 376–390
Zhang D F, Gao X J, Ouyang L C. Simulation of present climate over East Asia by a regional climate model. J Trop Meteorol, 2008, 14: 19–23
Gao X, Shi Y, Song R, et al. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: Comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 2008, 100: 73–86
Yu E T, Wang H J, Sun J Q. A quick report on a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett, 2010, 3: 325–329
Pal J S, Giorgi F, Bi X Q, et al. Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 2007, 88: 1395–1409
Shi Y, Gao X J, Zhang D F, et al. Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra River Basin in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Quat Int, 244: 159–168
Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, et al. Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Chin Sci Bull, 2012, 57: 1188–1195
Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, et al. Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China: Results from two high-resolution RCM simulations. Clim Res, 2012, 52: 213–226
Xu C H, Shen X Y, Xu Y. An analysis of climate change in East Asia by using the IPCC AR4 simulations (in Chinese). Adv Climate Change Res, 2007, 3: 287–292
Sui Y, Lang X. Monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century: Results of RegCM3. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett, 2012 (in print)
Frich P, Alexander L V, Della-Marta P, et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res, 2002, 19: 193–212
Ren G Y, Feng G L, Yan Z W. Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2010, 15: 337–353
Chavas D R, Izaurralde R C, Thomson A M, et al. Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China. Agric For Meteorol, 2009, 149: 1118–1128
Xu H M, Taylor R G, Kingston D G, et al. Hydrological modeling of River Xiangxi using SWAT2005: A comparison of model parameterizations using station and gridded meteorological observations. Quat Int, 2010, 226: 54–59
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Rights and permissions
This article is published under an open access license. Please check the 'Copyright Information' section either on this page or in the PDF for details of this license and what re-use is permitted. If your intended use exceeds what is permitted by the license or if you are unable to locate the licence and re-use information, please contact the Rights and Permissions team.
About this article
Cite this article
Lang, X., Sui, Y. Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°C global warming. Chin. Sci. Bull. 58, 1453–1461 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5520-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5520-5