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Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 42–50 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.

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Figure 1: Schematic representation of carbon flows among atmospheric, land, ocean and geological reservoirs.
Figure 2: Scenarios including NETs for each of the scenario categories, corresponding to the ranges and median values shown in Supplementary Table 3.
Figure 3: The different requirements and impacts of NETs.
Figure 4: The impacts and investment requirements of NETs to meet the 2 °C target.

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Acknowledgements

The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not represent those of a particular governmental agency or interagency body. This analysis was initiated at a Global Carbon Project meeting on NETs in Laxenburg, Austria, in April 2013 and contributes to the MaGNET program (http://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/magnet.html). G.P.P. was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). J.G.C. acknowledges support from the Australian Climate Change Science Program. E.Ka. and Y.Y. were supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK

    Pete Smith

  2. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, 92697-3100, California, USA

    Steven J. Davis

  3. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Street 12-15, Berlin, 10829, Germany

    Felix Creutzig, Sabine Fuss & Jan Minx

  4. Technical University Berlin, Straβe des 17, Junis 135, Berlin, 10623, Germany

    Felix Creutzig

  5. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany

    Jan Minx & Elmar Kriegler

  6. Hertie School of Governance, Friedrichstrasse 180, Berlin, 10117, Germany

    Jan Minx

  7. AgroParisTech, UMR1402 ECOSYS, Thiverval-Grignon, F-78850, France

    Benoit Gabrielle

  8. National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Environment and Arable Crops Research Unit, UMR1402 ECOSYS, Thiverval-Grignon, F-78850, France

    Benoit Gabrielle

  9. The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato, Tokyo, 105-0003, Japan

    Etsushi Kato

  10. Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, 94305, California, USA

    Robert B. Jackson

  11. NSW Department of Primary Industries, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia

    Annette Cowie

  12. Department of Environmental Sciences, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CS, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren

  13. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303 3720, AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren

  14. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zürich), Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland

    Joeri Rogelj

  15. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria

    Joeri Rogelj, David McCollum, Volker Krey, Arnulf Grübler, Matthias Jonas, Florian Kraxner, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Michael Obersteiner & Mathis Rogner

  16. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CEA l'Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France,

    Philippe Ciais & Thomas Gasser

  17. Stanford University 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, 94305-2205, California, USA

    Jennifer Milne

  18. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Research, GPO Box 3023, Canberra

    Josep G. Canadell

  19. Australian Capital Territory, 2601, Australia

    Josep G. Canadell

  20. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Gaustadalléen 21, Oslo, 0349, Norway

    Glen Peters, Robbie Andrew & Asbjørn Torvanger

  21. US Carbon Cycle Science Program, US Global Change Research Program, 20006, Washington, DC, USA

    Gyami Shrestha

  22. University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK

    Pierre Friedlingstein

  23. Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), CNRS-PontsParisTech-EHESS-AgroParisTech-CIRAD, Campus du Jardin Tropical, 45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, 94736, France

    Thomas Gasser

  24. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, PO Box 88550, Riyadh, 11672, Saudi Arabia

    Wolfgang K. Heidug

  25. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

    Chris D. Jones & Jason Lowe

  26. University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Emma Littleton

  27. Institute of Energy and Environment, University of Sao Paulo, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 1.289 – Cidade, Universitaria, São Paulo, 05508-010, Brazil

    José Roberto Moreira

  28. University of Maryland, 2101 Van Munching Hall, School of Public Policy, College Park, MD 20742, USA

    Anand Patwardhan

  29. Carnegie Mellon University, Baker Hall 128A, Pittsburgh, 15213, Pennsylvania, USA

    Ed Rubin

  30. Global Carbon Project — Tsukuba International Office, c/o NIES, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Ibaraki, Japan

    Ayyoob Sharifi

  31. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Ibaraki, Japan

    Yoshiki Yamagata

  32. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, 20740, Maryland, USA

    Jae Edmonds

  33. Korea University, 5-ga, Anam-dong, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, 136-701, Korea

    Cho Yongsung

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  1. Pete Smith
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Contributions

P.S. led the writing of the paper, with contributions from all authors in the inception of the study and in writing the drafts. P.S. led the analysis with significant contributions from S.J.D., F.C., S.F., J.M., B.G., R.B.J., A.C., E.Kr., D.M. and D.V.V. Figures were conceptualized and produced by S.J.D., J.R., P.C., S.F., P.S., G.P., R.A. and J.M.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Pete Smith.

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Competing interests

M.O. was given a share in Biorecro, a company that cooperates with BECCS projects globally, honouring his pioneering work on BECCS. The other authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Smith, P., Davis, S., Creutzig, F. et al. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nature Clim Change 6, 42–50 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2870

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2870

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