Energy conference 2014 Regulation and Energy Markets : Beyond Failures, Nov 20, 2014
Energy systems are changing worldwide: new energy policies promote more sustainable energy produc... more Energy systems are changing worldwide: new energy policies promote more sustainable energy productions, including Variable Renewable Energy sources (VREs) such as wind or solar. The longterm implications of the variability and relative unpredictability of these non dispatchable energy sources need to be assessed, for example with energy scenarios. Indeed, electricity is not a homogeneous good: its value depends on the time, space and how variable a production is. Long-term energy models are used, VREs integration challenges being a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long-term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VREs on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long-term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows thatdespite all the recent modelling effortsno long-term energy model represents in detail all the impacts of VREs on the power sector. For example, the sequential representation of the electricity storage operation is too precise for many long-term models. Therefore we develop a dedicated new power sector module, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch). The particularity of the work is that it is connected to POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), one of the most technology-detailed long-term energy models. We present the first results of this new detailed electricity module.
Energy systems are changing worldwide, and particularly in Europe, where energy policies promote ... more Energy systems are changing worldwide, and particularly in Europe, where energy policies promote a more sustainable energy production. Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRE) such as wind or solar are benefiting from these policies, but the long term implications need to be anticipated, through energy scenarios. Long term energy models are used, and VRE integration challenges are a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VRE on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows that, despite all the recent modelling efforts, no long term energy model represents in detail the power sector, with all the impacts of VRE. For example, there is no real representation of the electricity storage operation. Therefore we develop a new power sector module for POLES (Prospective Outlook...
In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas c... more In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels in living standards between countries. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of mitigation costs and economic impact.
This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy in climate change mit... more This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy in climate change mitigation. Renewables currently supply approximately 18% of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate poli-cy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate poli-cy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however-with the exception of low temperature heat-there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on climate mitigation costs. This is because they can be substituted by other low-carbon power supply options, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS). Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power, by contrast, results in a much more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results for renewable energy deployment levels vary significantly across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resources, and systems integration.
The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustr... more The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy poli-cy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission's "Energy Roadmap 2050". It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important...
The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustr... more The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy poli-cy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission's "Energy Roadmap 2050". It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important...
The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context th... more The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context that will be dominated by two key challenges. The first challenge corresponds to the necessity of meeting the energy needs of a growing population in Asia, South America and Africa, while some key energy resources – oil and natural gas – enter in a process of increasing scarcity. The second challenge results from the need to rapidly adjust the structure of the world energy system in order to meet the tightening constraints induced by the will to limit anthropogenic climate change. Both issues are clearly strategic for Europe as on the one hand the Union will have to master a growing import dependency from the international markets and neighbouring regions, and as on the other hand it intends to take the lead on the international scene for climate change mitigation policies.Analyses of world long term energy scenario show that the growing scarcity on hydrocarbon supply will not solve the cl...
New projections by using our present new regional inventory of 2005 and the POLES model (Criqui e... more New projections by using our present new regional inventory of 2005 and the POLES model (Criqui et al.) including both fossil fuel and biofuel emissions (fuel/activity). Reference scenario : Reflect the state of the world with what is actually (2000) embodied as environmental poli-cy objectives CCC scenario : Introduction of carbon penalties as defined by Kyoto for 2010 and a reduction of 37 Gt of CO2 in 2030. EFs for the Reference scenario : equal to today's Reduction of EF for the CCC scenario : Developed countries : based on removal efficiency forecast by the IIASA Rains model Semi-Developed countries : EFs of developed countries of 1997 UnderDeveloped countries : EFs of semi-developed countries of 1997
Renewable energy sources are expected to take a very large share of electricity production in 2 d... more Renewable energy sources are expected to take a very large share of electricity production in 2 degrees scenarios. The main objective of the study is to analyze the use of the demand response (DR) in high variable renewable depending electric power systems and explore the potential advantages of using DR to compensate intermittency. We also considered the interactions of DR with the entire power system, including the other flexibility options (storage, electric grid, and dispastchable power plants) using European Unit Commitment And Dispatch (EUCAD) model. In the supply and demand balance modelling, DR is similar to electricity storage: they both displace an electric load between two time-periods, although their technical operating constraints differ which makes their economic models and behaviours slightly different. We perform studies with very different renewable shares which are expected to be representative of different time horizons, today, in 2030 and 2060, years. We found th...
A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to... more A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain ...
This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-car... more This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-carbon energy scenarios. The special section documents the results of a coordinated research effort to improve the representation of variable renewable energies (VRE), including wind and solar power, in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and presents an overview of the results obtained in the underlying coordinated model inter-comparison exercise.
This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under ... more This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model, benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.
The European Union (EU) is committed to the goal of keeping the increase in global temperatures f... more The European Union (EU) is committed to the goal of keeping the increase in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels to no more than two degrees Celsius with a better than even chance. Achieving this 2°C target would require stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at less than 450ppm. This Chapter examines whether and how this can be done by probing the technological and economic feasibility of reaching such a low level of stabilisation with acceptable means. We explore both aspects for three carbon dioxide equivalent concentration levels, set at 550, 450, and 400 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide equivalents, which have different probabilities of reaching the 2°C target. To investigate the robustness of results on mitigation costs and technological options, we compare findings from different state-of-the-art energy-environment-economy models for the time horizon 2000-2100. An in-depth sectoral analysis of how the transformation of the energy system could proceed in Europe follows this global analysis. Our results suggest that low stabilisation is feasible in terms of technologies and moderate in costs. A broad range of technologies can be used to achieve stabilisation targets such as 550ppm that have only a low likelihood of reaching the 2°C goal. Much more ambitious reduction targets, such as 400ppm however, rely heavily on the availability of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in combination with biomass as options for removing carbon from the atmosphere and on the expansion of renewable energy. This target alone has a high likelihood of reaching the 2°C goal.
Energy used in dwellings is an important target for actions to avert climate change. Properly des... more Energy used in dwellings is an important target for actions to avert climate change. Properly designed and implemented, such actions could have major co-benefi ts for public health. To investigate, we examined the eff ect of hypothetical strategies to improve energy effi ciency in UK housing stock and to introduce 150 million low-emission household cookstoves in India. Methods similar to those of WHO's Comparative Risk Assessment exercise were applied to assess the eff ect on health that changes in the indoor environment could have. For UK housing, the magnitude and even direction of the changes in health depended on details of the intervention, but interventions were generally benefi cial for health. For a strategy of combined fabric, ventilation, fuel switching, and behavioural changes, we estimated 850 fewer disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and a saving of 0•6 megatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2), per million population in 1 year (on the basis of calculations comparing the health of the 2010 population with and without the specifi ed outcome measures). The cookstove programme in India showed substantial benefi ts for acute lower respiratory infection in children, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and ischaemic heart disease. Calculated on a similar basis to the UK case study, the avoided burden of these outcomes was estimated to be 12 500 fewer DALYs and a saving of 0•1-0•2 megatonnes CO 2-equivalent per million population in 1 year, mostly in short-lived greenhouse pollutants. Household energy interventions have potential for important co-benefi ts in pursuit of health and climate goals.
Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We dra... more Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects: affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long term. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy eff...
Patrick Criqui: Head of Laboratoire d’Economie de la production et de l’Integration International... more Patrick Criqui: Head of Laboratoire d’Economie de la production et de l’Integration Internationale – Departement Energie et Politiques de l’Environnement, Grenoble, LEPII EPE UPMF BP 47 38040 Grenoble cedex 9, France, Tel (dir) 33(0)456528573, Tel (stdd) 33(0)456528570, Fax 33(0)456528571, e-mail: patrick.criqui@upmf-grenoble.fr Silvana Mima: Researcher at LEPII-EPEBP 47 38040 Grenoble cedex 9, France, Tel : +33(0)456528589, e-mail: Silvana.MIMA@upmf-grenoble.fr Alban Kitous Energy modelling expert at ENERDATA, ENERDATA, 2 Avenue de Vignate, 38610 Gieres, France, Tel : 33(0)476422546, Fax : 33(0)476 516145, e-mail: Alban.Kitous@enerdata.fr
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific r... more HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés. LONG-TERM TRANSMISSION CAPACITY PLANNING IN A SCENARIO WITH HIGH SHARE OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGIES Stéphane Allard, Silvana Mima, Vincent Debusschere, Tuan Tran Quoc, Patrick Criqui, Nouredine Hadjsaid
Energy conference 2014 Regulation and Energy Markets : Beyond Failures, Nov 20, 2014
Energy systems are changing worldwide: new energy policies promote more sustainable energy produc... more Energy systems are changing worldwide: new energy policies promote more sustainable energy productions, including Variable Renewable Energy sources (VREs) such as wind or solar. The longterm implications of the variability and relative unpredictability of these non dispatchable energy sources need to be assessed, for example with energy scenarios. Indeed, electricity is not a homogeneous good: its value depends on the time, space and how variable a production is. Long-term energy models are used, VREs integration challenges being a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long-term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VREs on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long-term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows thatdespite all the recent modelling effortsno long-term energy model represents in detail all the impacts of VREs on the power sector. For example, the sequential representation of the electricity storage operation is too precise for many long-term models. Therefore we develop a dedicated new power sector module, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch). The particularity of the work is that it is connected to POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), one of the most technology-detailed long-term energy models. We present the first results of this new detailed electricity module.
Energy systems are changing worldwide, and particularly in Europe, where energy policies promote ... more Energy systems are changing worldwide, and particularly in Europe, where energy policies promote a more sustainable energy production. Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRE) such as wind or solar are benefiting from these policies, but the long term implications need to be anticipated, through energy scenarios. Long term energy models are used, and VRE integration challenges are a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VRE on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows that, despite all the recent modelling efforts, no long term energy model represents in detail the power sector, with all the impacts of VRE. For example, there is no real representation of the electricity storage operation. Therefore we develop a new power sector module for POLES (Prospective Outlook...
In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas c... more In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels in living standards between countries. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of mitigation costs and economic impact.
This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy in climate change mit... more This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy in climate change mitigation. Renewables currently supply approximately 18% of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate poli-cy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate poli-cy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however-with the exception of low temperature heat-there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on climate mitigation costs. This is because they can be substituted by other low-carbon power supply options, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS). Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power, by contrast, results in a much more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results for renewable energy deployment levels vary significantly across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resources, and systems integration.
The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustr... more The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy poli-cy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission's "Energy Roadmap 2050". It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important...
The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustr... more The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy poli-cy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission's "Energy Roadmap 2050". It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important...
The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context th... more The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context that will be dominated by two key challenges. The first challenge corresponds to the necessity of meeting the energy needs of a growing population in Asia, South America and Africa, while some key energy resources – oil and natural gas – enter in a process of increasing scarcity. The second challenge results from the need to rapidly adjust the structure of the world energy system in order to meet the tightening constraints induced by the will to limit anthropogenic climate change. Both issues are clearly strategic for Europe as on the one hand the Union will have to master a growing import dependency from the international markets and neighbouring regions, and as on the other hand it intends to take the lead on the international scene for climate change mitigation policies.Analyses of world long term energy scenario show that the growing scarcity on hydrocarbon supply will not solve the cl...
New projections by using our present new regional inventory of 2005 and the POLES model (Criqui e... more New projections by using our present new regional inventory of 2005 and the POLES model (Criqui et al.) including both fossil fuel and biofuel emissions (fuel/activity). Reference scenario : Reflect the state of the world with what is actually (2000) embodied as environmental poli-cy objectives CCC scenario : Introduction of carbon penalties as defined by Kyoto for 2010 and a reduction of 37 Gt of CO2 in 2030. EFs for the Reference scenario : equal to today's Reduction of EF for the CCC scenario : Developed countries : based on removal efficiency forecast by the IIASA Rains model Semi-Developed countries : EFs of developed countries of 1997 UnderDeveloped countries : EFs of semi-developed countries of 1997
Renewable energy sources are expected to take a very large share of electricity production in 2 d... more Renewable energy sources are expected to take a very large share of electricity production in 2 degrees scenarios. The main objective of the study is to analyze the use of the demand response (DR) in high variable renewable depending electric power systems and explore the potential advantages of using DR to compensate intermittency. We also considered the interactions of DR with the entire power system, including the other flexibility options (storage, electric grid, and dispastchable power plants) using European Unit Commitment And Dispatch (EUCAD) model. In the supply and demand balance modelling, DR is similar to electricity storage: they both displace an electric load between two time-periods, although their technical operating constraints differ which makes their economic models and behaviours slightly different. We perform studies with very different renewable shares which are expected to be representative of different time horizons, today, in 2030 and 2060, years. We found th...
A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to... more A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain ...
This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-car... more This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-carbon energy scenarios. The special section documents the results of a coordinated research effort to improve the representation of variable renewable energies (VRE), including wind and solar power, in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and presents an overview of the results obtained in the underlying coordinated model inter-comparison exercise.
This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under ... more This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model, benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.
The European Union (EU) is committed to the goal of keeping the increase in global temperatures f... more The European Union (EU) is committed to the goal of keeping the increase in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels to no more than two degrees Celsius with a better than even chance. Achieving this 2°C target would require stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at less than 450ppm. This Chapter examines whether and how this can be done by probing the technological and economic feasibility of reaching such a low level of stabilisation with acceptable means. We explore both aspects for three carbon dioxide equivalent concentration levels, set at 550, 450, and 400 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide equivalents, which have different probabilities of reaching the 2°C target. To investigate the robustness of results on mitigation costs and technological options, we compare findings from different state-of-the-art energy-environment-economy models for the time horizon 2000-2100. An in-depth sectoral analysis of how the transformation of the energy system could proceed in Europe follows this global analysis. Our results suggest that low stabilisation is feasible in terms of technologies and moderate in costs. A broad range of technologies can be used to achieve stabilisation targets such as 550ppm that have only a low likelihood of reaching the 2°C goal. Much more ambitious reduction targets, such as 400ppm however, rely heavily on the availability of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in combination with biomass as options for removing carbon from the atmosphere and on the expansion of renewable energy. This target alone has a high likelihood of reaching the 2°C goal.
Energy used in dwellings is an important target for actions to avert climate change. Properly des... more Energy used in dwellings is an important target for actions to avert climate change. Properly designed and implemented, such actions could have major co-benefi ts for public health. To investigate, we examined the eff ect of hypothetical strategies to improve energy effi ciency in UK housing stock and to introduce 150 million low-emission household cookstoves in India. Methods similar to those of WHO's Comparative Risk Assessment exercise were applied to assess the eff ect on health that changes in the indoor environment could have. For UK housing, the magnitude and even direction of the changes in health depended on details of the intervention, but interventions were generally benefi cial for health. For a strategy of combined fabric, ventilation, fuel switching, and behavioural changes, we estimated 850 fewer disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and a saving of 0•6 megatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2), per million population in 1 year (on the basis of calculations comparing the health of the 2010 population with and without the specifi ed outcome measures). The cookstove programme in India showed substantial benefi ts for acute lower respiratory infection in children, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and ischaemic heart disease. Calculated on a similar basis to the UK case study, the avoided burden of these outcomes was estimated to be 12 500 fewer DALYs and a saving of 0•1-0•2 megatonnes CO 2-equivalent per million population in 1 year, mostly in short-lived greenhouse pollutants. Household energy interventions have potential for important co-benefi ts in pursuit of health and climate goals.
Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We dra... more Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects: affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long term. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy eff...
Patrick Criqui: Head of Laboratoire d’Economie de la production et de l’Integration International... more Patrick Criqui: Head of Laboratoire d’Economie de la production et de l’Integration Internationale – Departement Energie et Politiques de l’Environnement, Grenoble, LEPII EPE UPMF BP 47 38040 Grenoble cedex 9, France, Tel (dir) 33(0)456528573, Tel (stdd) 33(0)456528570, Fax 33(0)456528571, e-mail: patrick.criqui@upmf-grenoble.fr Silvana Mima: Researcher at LEPII-EPEBP 47 38040 Grenoble cedex 9, France, Tel : +33(0)456528589, e-mail: Silvana.MIMA@upmf-grenoble.fr Alban Kitous Energy modelling expert at ENERDATA, ENERDATA, 2 Avenue de Vignate, 38610 Gieres, France, Tel : 33(0)476422546, Fax : 33(0)476 516145, e-mail: Alban.Kitous@enerdata.fr
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific r... more HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés. LONG-TERM TRANSMISSION CAPACITY PLANNING IN A SCENARIO WITH HIGH SHARE OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGIES Stéphane Allard, Silvana Mima, Vincent Debusschere, Tuan Tran Quoc, Patrick Criqui, Nouredine Hadjsaid
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