Abstract
Tunisia is a water-stressed country, which derives most of its surface water from its northern regions. Given Northern Tunisia’s role as a water provider, this study investigated the hydrological impacts of climate change on five catchments located in this region. Three hydrological models are considered: HBV, GR4, and IHACRES. Climate projections were derived from eleven high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (forced by general circulation models; GCM-RCMs). A quantile mapping (QM) bias correction method was applied to correct the climate simulations. Historical streamflow simulations (1970–2000), achieved by forcing the hydrological models with GCM-RCM precipitation and temperature, were first assessed in order to select the most realistic GCM-RCMs for future projections. The remaining bias corrected GCM-RCMs were then used to force the hydrological models in order to achieve projections of streamflow. The evaluation of the streamflow projections was conducted over two time periods (i) mid-term: 2040–2070 and (ii) long-term: 2070–2100 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of streamflow under the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The hydrological projections were analyzed according to several metrics commonly used by water managers.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbaris, A., Dakhlaoui, H., Thiria, S., Bargaoui, Z.: Variational data assimilation with the YAO platform for hydrological forecasting evolving water resources systems. In: Understanding, Predicting and Managing Water-Society Interactions. IAHS Publ., vol. 364, pp. 1–6 (2014)
Bargaoui, Z., Dakhlaoui, H., Houcine, A.: Modélisation pluie-débit et classification hydroclimatique. Rev. Sci. Eau 21, 233–245 (2008)
Dakhlaoui, H., Bargaoui, Z., Bárdossy, A.: Comparaison de trois méthodes d’usage de la technique des voisins les plus proches en vue d’amélioration de la performance de l’algorithme SCE-UA appliqué pour le calage du modèle pluie-débit HBV. In: Hydroinformatics in Hydrology, Hydrogeology and Water Resources, IAHS Publ., vol. 331, pp. 139–153 (2009)
Dakhlaoui H., Ruelland D., Trambaly Y., Bargaoui Z.:. Robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models to high-resolution climate projections in Northern Tunisia. J. Hydrol. (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.032
Gupta, H.V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K.K., Martinez, G.F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria Implications for improving hydrological modelling. J. Hydrol. 377, 80–91 (2009)
Sellami, H., Benabdallah, S., La Jeunesse, I., Vanclooster, M.: Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections. Sci. Total Environ. 543, 924–936 (2015)
Terink, W., Immerzeel, W.W., Droogers, P.: Climate change projections of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration for the Middle East and Northern Africa until 2050. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 3055–3072 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3650
Xoplaki, E., González-Rouco, J.F., Luterbacher, J., Wanner, H.: Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and predictability. Clim. Dyn. 23, 63–78 (2004)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Dakhlaoui, H., Seibert, J., Hakala, K. (2019). Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in Northern Tunisia. In: Chaminé, H., Barbieri, M., Kisi, O., Chen, M., Merkel, B. (eds) Advances in Sustainable and Environmental Hydrology, Hydrogeology, Hydrochemistry and Water Resources. CAJG 2018. Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01572-5_71
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01572-5_71
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-01571-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-01572-5
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)