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86400 Historical and projected low-frequency variability in the Somali Jet and Indian Summer Monsoon | Climate Dynamics
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Historical and projected low-frequency variability in the Somali Jet and Indian Summer Monsoon

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Abstract

Using reanalysis data and observations, interannual variations and long-term trends in the Somali Jet (hereafter, the Jet) and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) are characterized for drought vs flood, El Niño vs La Niña, and positive vs negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) summer monsoon seasons. In flood years, the Jet is stronger over the upstream sector (i.e., Arabian Sea) and weaker over the downstream (i.e., Bay of Bengal), resulting in additional convergence and enhanced moisture transport over India, whereas the reverse occurs during drought years. The Jet and ISMR characteristics for El Niño (La Niña) years are similar to drought (flood) years, despite only around half of dry (wet) years, being associated with El Niño (La Niña). In +IOD years, the Jet shifts northward and intensifies over central and northern India, bringing more moisture and rainfall to those regions, while the −IOD has an opposite but relatively weak impact on ISMR. Over the last century, the Jet has become weaker over peninsular India, with reductions in rainfall across east India. Future projections under the SSP585 scenario from the CMIP6 multi-model mean suggest that the Jet will progressively shift northward and strengthen over the Arabian Sea, with associated rainfall increases over entire Indian region. The long-term changes in the Jet over the twentieth century are of comparable magnitude to interannual variations; however, the absolute magnitude of projected future changes is smaller than interannual variations observed in the past.

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Acknowledgements

This study uses the IMD gridded rainfall, ERA-20C horizontal winds, and the precipitation and winds outputs from 15 CMIP6 models. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. The NCAR NCL is used for plotting, and IITD computing facility is used for computing. This work is partially supported by Department of Science and Technology (DST), Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, RP03350, Government of India through the DST Centre of Excellence in Climate Modeling, IIT Delhi. AA thanks MHRD and IITD for his PhD fellowship.

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  1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, Delhi, 110016, India

    Shipra Jain, Saroj K. Mishra, Abhishek Anand & Popat Salunke

  2. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK

    Shipra Jain

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, 80307, USA

    John T. Fasullo

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Jain, S., Mishra, S.K., Anand, A. et al. Historical and projected low-frequency variability in the Somali Jet and Indian Summer Monsoon. Clim Dyn 56, 749–765 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05492-z

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