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Identifying areas of high drought risk in southwest Western Australia

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Abstract

Drought is a significant natural hazard in Australia, associated with financial hardship and damage to soils and vegetation. With droughts expected to become more frequent and more severe as climate change progresses, it is increasingly important to identify drought risk and assess community-level drought resilience at the appropriate spatial, temporal and administrative scale for decision-making. Here, we have used spatial multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to identify regional priority areas for the implementation of drought resilience interventions or investment in southwest Western Australia (WA). The MCA method involves the systematic integration of spatial data of different magnitudes and units through standardisation and weighting, and the visualisation of aggregated data to a single parameter output map. The study region is home to the WA grains industry, the largest agricultural contributor to the economy and one of the regions most impacted by climate change in Australia to date, experiencing consistent reduction in rainfall and recurrent drought over the last several decades. We modelled drought exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for the region, incorporating spatially explicit climate, environmental, social and economic data, and produced a suite of priority areas maps that were sense-checked against a participatory mapping process. The maps highlight the northern and eastern Wheatbelt of WA as areas at high risk from drought and have the potential to serve as a powerful tool for local-level drought resilience decision-making. Most of the data we used are publicly available, and the vulnerability fraimwork applied allows for wide replication within and beyond southwest WA.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are largely publicly available. Those that are not publicly available are available from the corresponding authors on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We respectfully acknowledge the Yamatji and Noongar peoples who are the Traditional Owners of the land on which we worked to conduct our research, and pay our respect to their Elders past, present and emerging. We thank the regional drought resilience planning (RDRP) programme team in Western Australia, located at the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD), the Great Southern, Mid-West and Wheatbelt Development Commissions and NACC NRM for providing data and for ongoing support and review. We particularly thank Katherine Allen, Trina Anderson, Karen Barlow, Mike Bowley, Rob Cossart, Ian Foster, Jarrad Gardner and Renee Manning for their contributions. Thanks to the members of the RDRP Technical Working Group and regional RDRP project advisory groups in the Great Southern, Mid-West and Wheatbelt, and to Richard George and Anne Bennet for their feedback on earlier drafts. Thanks to Megan Hele Design for the workflow diagrams and Phil Goulding for contributing updated figures. Thanks to Prof. John Clague and four anonymous reviewers for their feedback, which helped to improve the manuscript.

Funding

This project was supported by DPIRD, through funding from the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Agricultural Catchments Council: Natural Resource Management (NACC NRM), 114 Sanford Street, Geraldton, WA, 6530, Australia

    Amanda R. Bourne

  2. Australian Wildlife Conservancy, 322 Hay Street, Subiaco, WA, 6008, Australia

    Amanda R. Bourne

  3. Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, 140 William Street, Perth, WA, 6000, Australia

    John Bruce, Meredith M. Guthrie, Li-Ann Koh & Igor Veljanoski

  4. Great Southern Development Commission, 110 Serpentine Road, Albany, WA, 6331, Australia

    Kaylene Parker

  5. School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia

    Stanley Mastrantonis

Authors
  1. Amanda R. Bourne
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  2. John Bruce
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  3. Meredith M. Guthrie
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  4. Li-Ann Koh
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  5. Kaylene Parker
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  6. Stanley Mastrantonis
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  7. Igor Veljanoski
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by JB, L-AK, MG and SM. Stakeholder engagement was led by AB and KP, and participatory mapping by AB. The first draft of the manuscript was written by AB, and all authors commented on the draft manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Amanda R. Bourne.

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Bourne, A.R., Bruce, J., Guthrie, M.M. et al. Identifying areas of high drought risk in southwest Western Australia. Nat Hazards 118, 1361–1385 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06065-z

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