Current and future precipitation extremes over Mississippi and Yangtze River basins as simulated in CMIP5 models

Abstract

Both central-eastern U.S. and China are prone to increasing flooding from Mississippi River and Yangtze River basins respectively. This paper contrasts historical and projected spatialtemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in these two large river basins using 31 CMIP5 (coupled model intercomparison project phase 5) models’ historical and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) experiments. Results show that (1) over both river basins, the heaviest rainfall events have increased in recent decades while the lightest precipitation reduced in frequency. Over Mississippi River Basin, both the lightest precipitation (<2.5 mm/day) and heaviest (>50 mm/day) would decrease in frequency notably after mid-2020s while intermediate events occur more frequently in future; whereas over the Yangtze River Basin, all categories of precipitation are projected to increase in frequency over the coming decades. (2) Although the consensus of CMIP5 models was able to reproduce well domain-time mean and even time-averaged spatial distribution of precipitation, they failed to simulate precipitation trends both in spatial distribution and time means. In a similar fashion, models captured well statistics of precipitation but they had difficulty in representing temporal variations of different precipitation intensity categories. (3) The well-documented 2nd half of the 20th century surface summer cooling over the two river basins showed different associations with precipitation trends with higher anti-correlation between them over the U.S. region, implying different processes contributing to the cooling mechanisms of the two river basins.