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86400 Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes | Climate Dynamics
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Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes

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Abstract

China faces an increasing challenge in water resources in the coming decades; thus high-confidence climate projection is of particular importance for the country’s future. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a long high-resolution continuous simulation over China based on multiple observations and the corresponding historical simulation. The simulation is completed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The results show that both MIROC5 and WRF can capture the distribution and variability of temperature over China, whereas WRF shows improvements, particularly for simulation of regional features. Compared with MIROC5, WRF can reproduce the spatial distribution, annual cycle, probability distribution, and seasonal evolution of the precipitation over mainland China and the sub-regions with better performance. The trend is of fundamental importance in the future projection estimations, and WRF shows better skill in simulating the annual mean precipitation trend. However, there is overestimation of precipitation in Southeast China while negative one in the middle latitude of China in WRF simulation, which can be traced back to model bias in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation in these regions. Several extreme climate indices are selected to further assess the model’s performance in simulating climate extremes, WRF can well reproduce the main features with better model skill compared with MIROC5. The better performance of WRF indicates the necessity of the dynamical downscaling technique and the robustness of regional climate simulation in future regional climate projection over China.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955401), the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (GYHY201306026), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41320104007), ‘the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Chang’ and KLOE Open Fund (XJDX0201-2012-04). We thank Dr. Manabu Abe of Japan’s National Institute for Environmental Studies for providing the MIROC5 data, we are also thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on the former version of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Entao Yu, Jianqi Sun & Huopo Chen

  2. Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Entao Yu, Jianqi Sun & Huopo Chen

  3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Huopo Chen

  4. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Weiling Xiang

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  1. Entao Yu
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Correspondence to Entao Yu.

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Yu, E., Sun, J., Chen, H. et al. Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes. Clim Dyn 45, 2013–2031 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2452-6

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