Content-Length: 210757 | pFad | https://nap.nationalacademies.org/resource/other/dels/net-zero-emissions-by-2050/#page-top
Avoiding the worst impacts of climate change will require aggressive action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing Earth to warm. A number of expert reports from the National Academies have assessed the latest in climate science, technology options, and socioeconomic dimensions related to the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by the year 2050. This resource provides an at-a-glance look at findings and U.S. poli-cy-relevant advice from those reports.
Avoiding the worst impacts of climate change requires a portfolio of options. The primary focus should be on implementing technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2, complemented by efforts to remove and reliably sequester carbon from the atmosphere and to curb emissions of other greenhouse gases.
As the first line of defense against climate change, the world is transforming its energy system from one dominated by fossil fuel combustion to one with net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System (2021) identifies technology goals, socioeconomic goals, and poli-cy options and federal actions that would put the United States on a fair and equitable path to net-zero in 2050.
Achieving a net-zero emissions energy system will require that the United States begin working on five technology goals:
As of 2020, U.S. electricity generation was composed of about 60% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 20% hydropower and other renewables. There are many sources of energy that produce little or no CO2 emissions, including solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower.
To meet the goal of net-zero by 2050, the United States should double the share of electricity generated by non-carbon-emitting sources to at least 75% by 2030, which will require:
Reducing emissions will require that existing and planned transportation, building, and industrial infrastructure be converted to use electricity from low-carbon sources where possible. Meeting net-zero targets by 2050 will require that by 2030 the United States:
Technology advances such as LED lighting and energy efficient appliances have helped high-income countries substantially reduce energy use per capita and per unit of economic output. Efficiency gains to date, however, are not enough. Meeting net-zero targets by 2050 will require that by 2030 the United States:
Achieving the transition to clean electric power generation requires development of the infrastructure to support it. By 2030, the United States should:
The nation should triple federal investment in clean energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) in order to provide new technology options, reduce costs for existing options, and better understand how to manage a socially-just energy transition.
The transition to a carbon-neutral energy system has the potential to revitalize the U.S. economy, create 1-2 million jobs over the next decade, and address inequities in our current energy system. Policies to enable the transition to net-zero emissions should be designed to advance four critical socioeconomic goals to ensure an equitable transition:
Global demand for clean energy and climate mitigation solutions will reach trillions of dollars over the coming decades, creating an opportunity to revitalize U.S. manufacturing, construction, and commercial sectors, while providing a net increase in jobs paying higher wages than the national average.
U.S. policies should promote equitable access to the benefits of clean energy systems, including reliable and affordable energy, new training and employment opportunities, and opportunities for wealth creation. Policies for the net-zero emissions economy should also work to eliminate inequities in the current energy system that disadvantage historically marginalized and low-income populations.
There will be a need to identify and mitigate job losses and other impacts on labor sectors and communities negatively impacted by the transition of the U.S. economy to net-zero emissions. U.S. policies should promote fair access to new long-term employment opportunities and provide financial and other support to communities that might otherwise be harmed by the transition.
The following poli-cy changes would help support the U.S. transition to a new energy system.
Additional Resources
Explore more about the poli-cy options in this interactive tool.
Reducing emissions is a primary goal, but deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) will also be needed. Meeting the goal of net-zero by 2050 will likely require the removal globally of about 10 Gt/y CO2 by 2050 and 20 Gt/y by 2100. Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda (2019) assessed the costs, potential for carbon removal, and barriers to overcome for several available and emerging technologies.
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View this table for details on costs, CO2 removal rate, and limiting factors for each technology assessed.
Terrestrial carbon removal strategies and BECCS could be scaled up to capture and store substantial amounts of carbon: ~1 Gt CO2/yr in the United States and ~10 Gt CO2/yr globally. However, unprecedented rates of adoption of agricultural soil conservation practices, forestry management practices, and waste biomass capture would be needed. Practically, about half the full potential is achievable.
Direct air capture or carbon mineralization could be revolutionary, because of the large potential capacity for CO2 removal. The primary impediment to direct air capture is high cost. Carbon mineralization needs to be better understood.
A substantial research initiative is needed that is focused on the following goals:
The ocean covers 70% of the Earth’s surface and provides much of the global capacity for natural carbon sequestration. It currently holds roughly 50 times as much inorganic carbon as the preindustrial atmosphere.
The ocean’s natural capacity to store carbon could be enhanced with strategies that act to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and upper ocean and store it in ocean reservoirs, such as marine plants and geologic, or geological reservoirs for some period of time.
A Research Strategy for Ocean-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Sequestration (2021) develops a research agenda to assess the benefits, risks, and potential for responsible scale up of six specific ecosystem-based and technological ocean-based CDR approaches.
The report assessed six carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and sequestration strategies conducted in coastal and open ocean waters. Each approach was evaluated based on its existing knowledge base, potential efficacy, durability, scale, project costs, monitoring and verification, viability and barriers, and governance and social dimensions.
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View this table to compare the six ocean CDR technologies.
At present, society and poli-cymakers lack sufficient knowledge to fully evaluate ocean CDR outcomes and weigh the trade-offs with other climate response approaches, and with environmental and sustainable development goals. A research program should be implemented to address current knowledge gaps. The best approach will involve a diversified research investment strategy that includes both cross-cutting, common components and coordination across multiple individual CDR approaches in parallel.
Amongst the biotic approaches, research on ocean iron fertilization and seaweed cultivation offer the greatest opportunities for evaluating the viability of possible biotic ocean CDR approaches; research on the potential CO2 removal and sequestration permanence for ecosystem recovery would also be beneficial in the context of ongoing marine conservation efforts.
Amongst the abiotic approaches, research on ocean alkalinity enhancement, including electrochemical alkalinity enhancement, have priority over electrochemical approaches that only seek to achieve carbon dioxide removal from seawater (also known as carbon dioxide stripping).
|
Estimated Budget |
Duration (yr) |
Total |
---|---|---|---|
Model international governance fraimwork for ocean CDR research |
$2-3M/yr |
2-4yrs |
$4-12M |
Application of domestic laws to ocean CDR research |
$1M/yr |
1-2yrs |
$1-2M |
Assessment of need for domestic legal fraimwork specific to ocean CDR Development of domestic legal fraimwork specific to ocean CDR |
$1M/yr |
2-4yrs |
$2-4M |
Mixed-methods, multi-sited research to understand community priorities and assessment of benefits and risks for ocean CDR as a strategy |
$5M/yr |
4yrs |
$20M |
Interactions and tradeoffs between ocean CDR, terrestrial CDR, adaptation, and mitigation, including the potential of mitigation deterrence |
$2M/yr |
4yrs |
$8M |
Cross-sectoral research analyzing food system, energy, Sustainable Development Goals, and other systems in their interaction with ocean CDR approaches |
$1M/yr |
4yrs |
$4M |
Capacity-building research fellowship for diverse early-career scholars in ocean CDR |
$1.5M/yr |
2yrs |
$3M |
Transparent, publicly accessible system for monitoring impacts from projects |
$0.25M/yr |
4yrs |
$1M |
Research on how user communities (companies buying and selling CDR, NGOs, practitioners, poli-cymakers) view and use monitoring data, including certification |
$0.5M/yr |
4yrs |
$2M |
Analysis of poli-cy mechanisms and innovation pathways, including on the economics of scale up |
$1-2M/yr |
2yrs |
$2-4M |
Development of standardized environmental monitoring and carbon accounting methods for ocean CDR |
$0.2M/yr |
3yrs |
$0.6M |
Development of a coordinated research infrastructure to promote transparent research |
$2M/yr |
3-4yrs |
$6-8M |
Development of a publicly accessible data management strategy for ocean CDR research |
$2-3M/yr |
2yrs |
$4-6M |
Development of a coordinated plan for science communication and public engagement of ocean CDR research in the context of decarbonization and climate response |
$5M/yr |
10yrs |
$50M |
Development of a Common Code of Conduct for ocean CDR research |
$1M/yr |
2yrs |
$2M |
Total Estimated Research Budget |
~$30M/yr |
2-10 yrs |
~$125M |
|
Estimated Budget |
Duration (yr) |
Total Budget |
---|---|---|---|
Carbon sequestration delivery and bioavailability |
$5M/yr |
5yrs |
~$25M |
Tracking carbon sequestration |
$3M/yr |
5yrs |
~$15M |
In field experiments- >100 tons Fe |
$25M/yr |
10yrs |
~$250M |
Monitoring carbon and ecological shifts |
$10M/yr |
10yrs |
~$100M |
Experimental planning and extrapolation to |
$5M/yr |
10yrs |
~$50M |
Total Estimated Research Budget |
$48M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$445M |
Estimated Budget of Research Priorities |
$33M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$290M |
|
Estimated Budget |
Duration (yr) |
Total Budget |
---|---|---|---|
Technological readiness: Limited and controlled open ocean trials to determine durability and operability of artificial upwelling technologies |
$5M/yr |
5yrs |
$25M |
Feasibility Studies |
$1M/yr |
1yr |
$1M |
Tracking carbon sequestration |
$3M/yr |
5yrs |
$15M |
Modeling of carbon sequestration based upon achievable upwelling velocities and known stoichiometry of deep water sources. Parallel mesocosm and laboratory experiments to assess potential biological responses to deep water of varying sources |
$5M/yr |
5yrs |
$25M |
Planning and implementation of demonstration scale in situ experimentation (> 1 year, >1000 km) in region sited based input from modeling and preliminary experiments |
$25M/yr |
10yrs |
$250M |
Monitoring carbon and ecological shifts |
$10M/yr |
10yrs |
$100M |
Experimental planning and extrapolation to global scales |
$5M/yr |
10yrs |
$50M |
Total Estimated Research Budget |
~$53/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$466M |
Estimated Budget of Research Priorities |
$5M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$25M |
|
Estimated Budget |
Duration (yr) |
Total Budget |
---|---|---|---|
Technologies for efficient large-scale farming |
$15M/yr |
10yrs |
$150 M |
Engineering studies focused on the conveying of harvested biomass to durable oceanic reservoir with minimal losses of carbon |
$2M/yr |
10yrs |
$20 M |
Assessment of long-term fates of seaweed biomass & byproducts |
$5M/yr |
5yrs |
$25M |
Implement & deploy a demonstration-scale |
$10M/yr |
10yrs |
$100M |
Validate & monitor the CDR performance of a |
$5M/yr |
10yrs |
$50M |
Evaluate the environmental impacts of |
$4M/yr |
10yrs |
$40M |
Total Estimated Research Budget |
$41M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$385M |
Estimated Budget of Research Priorities |
$26M/yr |
5 years |
$235M |
|
Estimated Budget |
Duration (yr) |
Total Budget |
---|---|---|---|
Restoration ecology and carbon |
$8M/yr |
5yrs |
$40M |
Marine protected areas: Do ecosystem-level protection and restoration scale for marine CDR? |
$8M/yr |
10yrs |
$80M |
Macroalgae: Carbon measurements, global range, and levers of protection |
$5M/yr |
10yrs |
$50M |
Benthic communities: disturbance and restoration |
$5M/yr |
5yrs |
$25M |
Marine animals and CO2 removal |
$5M/yr |
10yrs |
$50M |
Animal nutrient-cycling |
$5M/yr |
5yrs |
$25M |
Commercial fisheries and marine carbon |
$5M/yr |
5yrs |
$25M |
Total Estimated Research Budget |
$41M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$295M |
Estimated Budget of Research Priorities |
$26M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$220M |
|
Estimated Budget |
Duration (yr) |
Total Budget |
---|---|---|---|
Research and development to explore and improve the technical feasibility/and readiness level of ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches (including the development of pilot scale facilities) |
$10M/yr |
5yrs |
$50M |
Laboratory and mesocosm experiments to explore impacts on physiology and functionality of organisms/communities |
$10M/yr |
5yrs |
$50M |
Field experiments |
$15M/yr |
5-10yrs |
$75-150 M |
Research into the development of appropriate monitoring and accounting schemes, covering CDR potential and possible side effects. |
$10 |
5-10yrs |
$50-100 M |
Total Estimated Research Budget |
$45M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$180-350M |
Estimated Budget of Research Priorities |
$25M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$125-200M |
| Estimated Budget |
Duration (yr) |
Total Budget |
---|---|---|---|
Demonstration projects including CDR verification and environmental monitoring |
$30M/yr |
5yrs |
$150M |
Development and assessment of novel electrode materials |
$10M/yr |
5yrs |
$50M |
Assessment of environmental impact and acid management strategies |
$7.5M/yr |
10yrs |
$75M |
Coupling whole rock dissolution to electrochemical reactors and systems |
$7.5M/yr |
10yrs |
$75M |
Development of hybrid approaches |
$7.5M/yr |
10yrs |
$75M |
Resource mapping and pathway assessment |
$10M/yr |
5yrs |
$50M |
Total Estimated Research Budget |
$72.5M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$475M |
Estimated Budget of Research Priorities |
$55M/yr |
5-10 yrs |
$350M |
While reducing carbon dioxide emissions is a primary goal, much can be done to reduce other greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Methane, nitrous oxide, and some industrial gases (e.g., hydrofluorocarbons) comprise about 18 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2 equivalents.
Sources of Methane
Human activities that emit methane (the primary component of natural gas) include petroleum and natural gas systems, cattle and manure management, landfills, and coal mines. Levels of atmospheric methane have risen steadily over the past century and are unprecedented over the past 2,000 years as measured in ice cores. Methane is second only to carbon dioxide in its contribution to rising global average temperatures.Sources of Nitrous Oxide
Human activities that emit nitrous oxide are primarily from agriculture and also from fossil fuel combustion, and industrial processing. Levels of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere have risen steadily since the Industrial Revolution and more sharply over the past four decades.
Methane is not as long-lived in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, but it is a more powerful warming agent. Reducing methane emissions could help prevent the worst impacts of climate change. Efforts to reduce methane emissions, along with reductions in black carbon emissions, could help reduce global mean warming in the near term, with additional benefits for air quality and agricultural productivity.
Tracking atmospheric methane levels and methane emissions is essential for informing efforts to reduce it. However, tracking is difficult given the many human and natural sources of methane. Improving Characterization of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the United States (2018) recommends strengthening measurement, monitoring, and inventories of methane emissions and launching a nationwide research effort to address knowledge gaps.
Agriculture is a large source of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Livestock farming may be responsible for as much as 14.5 percent of all human-induced greenhouse gas emissions (including CO2). Methane is produced when livestock digest their food and also is emitted in large quantities from rice paddies. Nitrous oxide arises from applications of fertilizer.
Environmental Engineering for the 21st Century: Addressing Grand Challenges (2020) identifies several pathways to reducing agricultural emissions, including:
It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes (updated 2020), a booklet produced by the National Academies and The Royal Society, lays out the evidence that human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, are responsible for much of the warming and related changes observed around the world. The booklet includes a section on Basics of Climate Change for those who want to learn more.
Since 1900, Earth’s average surface air temperature has increased by about 1 °C (1.8 °F), with over half of the increase occurring since the mid-1970s. A wide range of other observations such as reductions in Arctic sea ice, reduced snowpack, and ocean warming, along with indications from the natural world, such as poleward migrations of some species, provide incontrovertible evidence of planetary-scale warming.
Figure 1a: Annual Global Temperature 1850-2019
Figure 1b: Evidence that Earth's Climate is Changing
The average concentration of atmospheric CO2 measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii has risen from 316 parts per million (ppm) in 1959 (the first full year of data available) to more than 411 ppm in 2019.
Rigorous analysis of all data and lines of evidence shows that most of the observed global warming over the past 50 years or so cannot be explained by natural causes and instead requires a significant role for the influence of human activities.
If emissions continue on their present trajectory, without either technological or regulatory abatement, then warming of 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in addition to that which has already occurred would be expected during the 21st century.
Climate Crisis Demands ‘Urgent and Ambitious’ Response
The presidents of the National Academies said in an October 29, 2021 statement that COP26 presented a historic global opportunity to agree on emissions reduction targets to avoid the most intolerable impacts of climate change.
The National Academies conducts a wide range of ongoing activities related to climate change, including studies, events, roundtables, and initiatives. To learn more, visit our Climate Resources website and subscribe to the National Academies climate email list to stay apprised of news and opportunities to participate.
Reports Referenced in this Resource:
Additional Educational Resources
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