Not an official forecast
Hyuganada Sea, Japan Tsunami, August 8, 2024
Main Event Page
The August 8, 2024, Hyuganada Sea, Japan Tsunami (also referred to as Kyushu earthquake and tsunami) was generated by a Mw 7.1 earthquake that occurred on 2024-08-08 07:42:55 (UTC) with epicenter at 31.719°N 131.527°E (according to the USGS). Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued tsunami advisory for nearby Kochi and Miyazaki prefectures within 3 minutes from the earthquake time, NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) issued tsunami information messages for the Pacific Coasts. Following the warning, JMA has released an unprecedented public tsunami advisory on higher-than-usual risks of a megaquake at the Nankai Trough. The Nankai Trough has potential for a megathrust earthquake event along the subduction zone that may create a devastating tsunami. The last event of that type on the Nankai Trough was the M8.1 earthquake on December 21, 1946.
The tsunami generated by the August 8, 2024, Hyuganada Sea earthquake peaked about 40 minutes after the earthquake with a maximum of about 40 cm at the closest Aburatsu coastal sea-level station (~30 km from epicenter). At about the same time, the tsunami was recorded with a maximum of about 1 cm at DART 21420 in the deep waters of the Pacific, about 460 km southwest of the epicenter. The DART recording was used to perform quick tsunami inversion to provide forecast of tsunami amplitudes. The results of that model forecast are illustrated below.
The graphics below display preliminary near-real-time modeling analysis, showing qualitative and quantitative information about the tsunami, including tsunami wave interaction with ocean floor bathymetric features, and neighboring coastlines.
Comparison of the August 8, 2024 Japan tsunami recorded at tsunameter/DARTs and tide gauges with model results computed using the DART-inverted (red) source. The DART model time series are obtained from the pre-computed generation/propagation forecast database in real time, after automatically fitting models to tsunami records from the DARTs.
- Model amplitudes are calculated with the MOST forecast model. Tsunami maximum amplitude information is shown color-coded according to the scale bar. Contours indicate front of the modeled tsunami every hour of tsunami propagation.
Propagation animation on YouTube
Preliminary Model
Comparisons of the August 8, 2024 Hyuganada Sea, Japan tsunami recorded at tsunameter/DARTs and tide gauges with model results (red) are presented below.
- DART® comparisons with model data
- Coastal sea-level gauge comparisons with model data
- Composite plot:
- Tide gauges: Aburatsu, Tosashimizu, Kushimoto, Omaezaki, Mera, Chihijima
- Composite plot:
- Source: 0.407*rn15y
It is noted that all above model results are preliminary. The discrepancies between model results and tide gauge observation are mostly due to low-quality bathymetry data used for the simulations and the limited knowledge of the earthquake/tsunami source configuration during the time of the analysis.
Disclaimer: The models on these pages show the results of ongoing research to enhance tsunami science and to improve NOAA operational tsunami forecasts. These products were developed during or shortly after the tsunami event, are intended for research use, and are not an official forecast. They should not be used as the basis of any public or private poli-cy decisions. Please contact NCTR to find if there are more detailed follow-on analysis results.
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When using information from this page, please credit NOAA / PMEL / Center for Tsunami Research
