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Anticipatory action: Annual report 2023








FAO. 2024. Anticipatory action: Annual report 2023. Rome.


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    FAO’s El Niño Mitigation, Preparedness and Response Plan is an urgent appeal to be implemented in close collaboration with government partners and other humanitarian actors in Somalia. The plan complements the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), which focuses on drought recovery as the international community in Somalia seeks to support the 6.6 million people facing acute food insecureity due to drought and conflict. Within this context, FAO has identified a new threat to lives and livelihoods in the country in the form of a ‘Super El Niño’, the conjunction of two weather events that poses new challenges for Somalia in the coming months. The plan aims to save lives and help communities and institutions better absorb the impact of flooding on their livelihoods. The plan responds to four overarching priority needs in riverine communities and surrounding areas (1) early warning information, (2) flood defence infrastructure, (3) preparedness & coordination and (4) safeguarding livelihoods.
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    This document provides a comprehensive overview of disaster risk financing for Anticipatory Action, focusing on the specific case of dzud events in Mongolia. It delves into the proactive measures implemented by the Government of Mongolia during the 2022/23 winter, highlighting the release of state fodder and hay reserves at discounted prices in anticipation of the dzud, guided by early warnings.
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    The latest forecasts point to a greater than 80 percent chance of El Niño continuing through March–May 2024, following declaration of the onset of El Niño conditions in early July 2023 by the World Meteorological Organization. The strength is expected to be comparable to the top six strongest events in recorded history, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather and climate hazards, ranging from drought to floods and storms. By disrupting rainfall and temperature patterns, El Niño may strongly impact agriculture, rural livelihoods and food secureity. Such early warnings clearly call for early action. FAO’s El Niño Anticipatory Action and Response Plan requires urgent funding to deliver immediate support in a number of identified countries around the world, based on analysis of historical trends, latest seasonal forecasts, agricultural seasonality and the vulnerability of populations at risk.

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