Content-Length: 1918 | pFad | https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt

:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Dec 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3932 (S17E49, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1.0 flare at 22/0410 UTC; the largest event of the period. Regions 3928 (S13E27, Dki/beta-gamma), 3930 (S22W54, Cai/beta), 3932, and 3934 (N13E54, Dao/beta) underwent minor growth while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data. .Forecast... M-class flare activity is likely, with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare, over 22-24 Dec. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background with a peak flux of 5 pfu observed at 21/1235 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal and moderate levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 22-24 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 24 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced this period. Total field decreased from a peak of 9 nT to around 6 nT and Bz varied between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 475-625 km/s. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Dec. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected over 23-24 Dec and there is a chance to see the glancing influences of a CME (from 20 Dec) on 24 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled over 22-24 Dec with negative polarity CH HSS influences likely on 23-24 Dec, and the possible glancing influences of a CME (from 20 Dec) on 24 Dec.

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