Content-Length: 2111 | pFad | https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/sgarf.txt
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2024 Dec 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/0038Z from Region 3932 (S17E56). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 21/0842Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/2058Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 21/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 756 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec). III. Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Dec 195 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 005/008-008/008-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/25/25Fetched URL: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/sgarf.txt
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