Ekonometrija
Ekonometrija se bavi primjenom statističkih metoda na ekonomske podatke. Ekonomisti koriste statistiku za testiranje svojih teorija ili pravljenje predviđanja budućih kretanja u ekonomiji. Pošto ekonomski podaci nisu eksperimentalne prirode, a nerijetko se javljaju i slučajnosti, u ekonometriji se koriste stohastički umjesto determinističkih modela.
Prednosti primjene matematike i statistike na oblast ekonomije su uočene vrlo brzo. U drugom dijelu 17. vijeka, Sir Vilijam Piti je 1676. godine objavio jedan veoma važan članak o metodološkim osnovama ekonometrije.[1] Po DŽejfiju [2] Lion Valras, profesor na Univerzitetu Luizijane je prepoznat kao začetnik ekonomske teorije opšte ravnoteže koja se smatra teorijskom osnovom moderne ekonomije.
29. decembra 1930. godine u Klivlendu, grupa ekonomista, statističara i matematičara je osnovala „Društvo ekonometrije“ s ciljem promovisanja matematičkih i statističkih teorija u vezi s ekonomijom. Tada je osnovan dvomjesečni časopis „Econometrica“ koji se prvi put pojavio u januaru 1933. godine. Razvoj simultanih modela jednačina koje bi se mogle koristiti u vremenskim serijama za ekonomska predviđanja, bio je momenat kada je ekonometrija postala posebna oblast ekonomije. Simultani modeli su i danas veoma bitan dio ekonometrije.[3]
- ↑ Petty, W.: Political arithmetic. In: William Petty, The Economic Writings. , vol 1. Kelley, New York, pp. 233–313 (1676)
- ↑ Jaffé, W.: Walras, Léon. In: Sills, D.L. (ed.) International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, vol. 16. Macmillan and Free Press, New York, pp. 447–453 (1968)
- ↑ Wonnacott, R.J., Wonnacott, T.H.: Econometrics. Wiley, New York (1970)
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