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FZUS81 KCLE 181556 ICEGL GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1056 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024 ...Great Lakes Ice Season for 2024-2025 Expected to Have Below Average Ice Cover... Periodic colder weather has cycled through the Great Lakes over the past couple of weeks/first half of December with some relative consistency in temperatures remaining at or below freezing across the northern tier. While the lakes overall remain above average, especially Lakes Huron and Michigan, the smaller bays/inlets and some of the shoreline area water temperatures have come down into the mid 30s, and some ice formation has occurred. It is interesting to note that the open waters of the lakes remain on the warmer side despite an active period of weather the past two weeks with higher frequencies of gales during that time. In the near term forecast, a late week Alberta Clipper system will track down into the Great Lakes from the Canadian Prairies, reinforcing the colder air across the Great Lakes, especially for the upcoming weekend - December 21st/22nd. 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks are exhibiting strong signals for above normal temperatures for the Great Lakes (and even much of the continental US) as we head through next week, which should continue to delay the significant ice formation processes through the end of the month. It appears that it will be into the first part January before the next potential shot of sustained Arctic air comes into play, but the confidence for this right now remains low. Water temperatures across the Great Lakes on the whole continue to run above average as stated above. Outside of the aforementioned lakeshore areas and shallower protected bays and inlets, and the western basin of Lake Erie, 40 plus degree water temperatures in the open waters are still holding on. Lake Superior is getting close to the 40F mark, averaging just under 41F on the whole for the lake. South through the St Marys River, water temperatures are near freezing and the Straits of Mackinac are near 40F. Lakes Michigan and Huron open waters continue to be in the mid 40s while Big/Little Bays de Noc and Saginaw Bay are in the 30s. Green Bay is one location with significant ice formation at the time of this issuance, and could see some growth through the weekend with the effects of the Alberta Clipper system pushing through the region. Down into the St Clair River and Detroit River, low 40s are prominent, but Lake St Clair is running slightly cooler in the upper 30s. Lake Erie is near freezing in the western basin, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the central and eastern basins. Water temperatures down to around 35F tend to set the stage for freezing/ice formation. Ice formation is determined by two factors: The amount of heat stored in the water from the summer and how fast that heat can be removed by arctic outbreaks of Polar air and high winds. Long range outlooks do not consider the "storminess" factor which can significantly alter the thermal structure of the lake over short periods of time. FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON Tue Dec 17: LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT ---------------------------------------- DULUTH, MN DEC 16 292 312 MARQUETTE, MI DEC 16 224 209 SAU_S_MAR, MI DEC 16 102 108 GREENBAY, WI DEC 16 88 119 MILWAUKEE, WI DEC 16 14 49 CHICAGO, IL DEC 16 7 61 MUSKEGON, MI DEC 16 0 22 ALPENA, MI DEC 16 51 59 DETROIT, MI DEC 16 2 14 CLEVELAND, OH DEC 16 0 0 BUFFALO, NY DEC 16 1 19 Freezing Degree Day Accumulation Forecast Location 12/19 12/20 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24 Duluth 344 372 395 427 445 453 Marquette 222 231 245 260 269 272 GreenBay 129 136 151 183 215 247 Milwaukee 55 57 67 76 80 79 Chicago 62 62 69 76 80 77 Muskegon 25 28 34 43 48 47 Alpena 67 74 89 104 114 116 Detroit 16 16 24 36 44 44 Cleveland 0 0 3 10 18 18 Buffalo 21 23 33 49 61 64 This is the last Freeze-Up Outlook, and we will be transitioning to the Great Lakes Ice Outlook products which will be issued Monday, Wednesday, and Friday around 5PM EST at the point when significant ice begins to form on the lakes. $$ Marsalek

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