Proceedings of the 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology, 2018
Climate and land use changes are the main drivers of biodiversity loss and species distribution r... more Climate and land use changes are the main drivers of biodiversity loss and species distribution range contractions. Previous studies have primarily explored the direct effects of these drivers on biodiversity while ignoring the indirect effects that come through other species. Models ignoring these mechanisms are prone to erroneous predictions of how global change impacts biodiversity, which impedes our ability to make effective management decision for biodiversity conservation. Here, we focus on the brown bear (Ursus arctos), a well-studied omnivore species that has trophic interactions with many different taxa. We aim understand how direct and indirect impacts of climate and land use change would affect the future distribution and vulnerability of different populations across Europe. We first conducted a literature search in Web of Science and Google Scholar to gather all available brown bear diet studies in Europe, based on faecal or stomach content. From the 32 identified studies, we selected 16 in which food items were described at the species level. In total, we compiled information on ~100 species that are generally consumed by brown bears. We constructed a spatial dataset assigning diet to different populations. We download well-defined and located occurrence data for all species found in the diet of the from brown bear from GBIF. To build reliable species distribution models for all these species, we used biomod2 in R that provides multiple algorithms and allows generating ensemble of species predictions per species. We control for the potential spatial bias in GBIF in the selection of pseudo-absence data following recommendation by Phillips et al. 2006. Single species distribution models for all species found in the diet were finally built in function of current climate and land use data. Using different scenarios for climate and land use change, we projected the future distributions of the brown bear diet species. Finally, using these projections and scenarios, we calculated the potential current and future suitable habitats of brown bear in Europe in function of its diet, climate and land use. The range dynamic of the brown bear was best explained by considering both direct and indirect impacts. Accounting for diet (indirect effect) buffered the direct impact of climate and land use change. Our results highlight the importance of taking a food-web ecosystem approach to evaluate the impact of global changes and predict modifications in the distribution and vulnerability of species.peerReviewe
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY
Whereas numerous studies on large carnivores have focused on analyzing spatial patterns and habit... more Whereas numerous studies on large carnivores have focused on analyzing spatial patterns and habitat use, the temporal dimension of their activity has been relatively little investigated, making this a topic of growing interest, especially in human-dominated landscapes. Relict and isolated Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) have been living in a human-modified landscape since millennia, but no information is available on their activity patterns. By means of GPS telemetry (26,880 GPS locations collected from 18 adult Apennine brown bears) we investigated their circadian rhythms, using hourly movement rates as an index of bear activity. Based on a Bayesian modeling approach, circadian activity of Apennine brown bears was described by a bimodal curve, with peaks of activity around sunrise and sunset. We revealed seasonal effects, with bears exhibiting higher movement rates throughout the mating season, but no relevant influence of sex. In addition, bears increased their movement rate at distances < 100-500 m to roads and settlements exclusively during spring and late summer, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and risk avoidance. The absence of a marked nocturnality in Apennine brown bears suggests a relatively low degree of habitat encroachment and disturbance by humans. Yet, the occurrence of crepuscular activity patterns and the responses in proximity of anthropogenic landscape features likely indicate a coadaptation by bears to human presence through a shift in their temporal niche. Further studies should aim to unveil fitness implications of such modifications in activity patterns. For wildlife species, survival and reproductive instincts can be fundamental factors determining animals' activity, inducing individuals to temporally segregate from predators or overlap with prey 1 , and to coordinate for mating 2,3. Circadian rhythms in animals, defined as cyclicity in behavior, physiology, hormone levels and biochemistry on a daily basis 4 , are an adaptation to the changing environmental conditions that characterize the 24 hours 4. In mammals, a number of genes are responsible for the expression of circadian rhythmicity 5 , which is controlled by a master pacemaker made of two clusters of neurons in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) of the hypothalamus 4,5. The central oscillator in the SCN generates an endogenous rhythmicity, following a cycle of about 24 hours, which can be entrained and modified by the interaction between physiological and external factors ('Zeitgeber') 6,7 , such as temperature 8 and light 7. This circadian clock regulates a variety of processes and physiological parameters, including wakefulness and rest, metabolism and blood pressure 5. Among external factors, human disturbance and encroachment may profoundly impact the activity rhythms of wildlife species, clearly depending on the nature and extent of human pressure 9. Humans are perceived as a predator to which animals associate a risk and whose perception differs among species, individuals, seasons, and times of the day, varying according to the type of anthropogenic activity 9,10. In such circumstances, especially in human-modified landscapes, wildlife species can increase nocturnal activity, hence adapting their spatiotemporal niche, with the aim to avoid contact with humans 9. While this flexibility in wildlife's circadian rhythms is a key component of their adaptive strategies for co-habiting with humans 11 , it is also likely that drastic changes in activity occur at the expense of the individual's fitness, causing stress, reducing foraging efficiency and reproductive success, eventually with cascading effects across entire ecological communities 12,13. Large carnivores, in particular, are highly sensitive to human activity 14,15 , and they represent model species to study the nature and extent of wildlife's behavioral adaptation to human-modified landscapes 16. Mountain lions (Puma concolor) in developed areas of California, for instance, are more active at night than during the day, and they move further and expend more calories near human settlements at night compared to areas with lower human development 17. Wolves (Canis lupus
Extensive introgression of genes from domesticated taxa may be a serious threat for the genomic i... more Extensive introgression of genes from domesticated taxa may be a serious threat for the genomic integrity and adaptability of wild populations. Grey wolves (Canis lupus) are especially vulnerable to this phenomenon, but there are no studies yet assessing the potential behavioural effects of dogintrogression in wolves. In this study, we conducted a rst systematic comparison of admixed (N = 11) and non-admixed wolves (N = 14) in captivity, focusing on their reaction to unfamiliar humans and novel objects, and the cohesiveness of their social groups. When exposed to unfamiliar humans in the experimental task, wolves were more vigilant, fearful and aggressive than admixed wolves, and less likely to approach humans, but also more likely to spend time in human proximity. When exposed to novel objects, wolves were more aggressive than admixed wolves, less likely to spend time in object proximity, and more likely to interact with objects, but also less vigilant and as fearful as admixed wolves. Finally, social networks were mostly more cohesive in wolves than admixed wolves. Overall, our study suggests that dog admixture may lead to important behavioural changes in wolves, with possible implications for conservation strategies.
food subsidies hinder the ecological role of wolves: Insights for conservation of apex predators ... more food subsidies hinder the ecological role of wolves: Insights for conservation of apex predators in human-modified landscapes, Global Ecology and Conservation (2019), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.gecco.2019.e00841. This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because... more The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because of conflicts with human activities. Modeling is an important tool to project wolf dynamics and expansion, and help in decision making concerning management and conservation. However, some individual behaviors and pack dynamics of the wolf life cycle are still unclear to ecologists. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) to project wolf populations while exploring the lesser-known processes of the wolf life cycle. IBMs are bottom-up models that simulate the fate of individuals interacting with each other, with population-level properties emerging from the individual-level simulations. IBMs are particularly adapted to represent social species such as the wolf that exhibits complex individual interactions. Our IBM projects wolf demography including fine-scale individual behavior and pack dynamics based on up-to-date scientific literature. We explore four processes of the wolf life cycle whose consequences on population dynamics are still poorly understood: the pack dissolution following the loss of a breeder, the adoption of young dispersers by packs, the establishment of new packs through budding, and the different breeder replacement strategies. While running different versions of the IBM to explore these processes, we also illustrate the modularity and flexibility of our model, an asset to model wolf populations experiencing different ecological and demographic conditions. The different parameterization of pack dissolution, territory establishment by budding, and breeder replacement processes influence the projections of wolf populations. As such, these processes require further field investigation to be better understood. The adoption process has a lesser impact on model projections. Being coded in R to facilitate its understanding, we expect that our model will be used and further adapted by ecologists for their own specific applications.
Summary We hereby discuss nature and implications of wolflivestock conflict (WLC) for wolf conser... more Summary We hereby discuss nature and implications of wolflivestock conflict (WLC) for wolf conservation in Italy. By reviewing the published studies and technical reports on WLC in Italy we describe the state of the art of current knowledge, illustrate research needs, and provide a general methodological discussion to stimulate further studies. Current knowledge on WLC in Italy is detailed according to basic parameters (compensation costs; nature and extent of depredations; distribution and trends of WLC at local and national scales; seasonal, ecological, husbandry and behavioral correlates of WLC). Based on accumulated experience and recent studies both in Italy and abroad, we also discuss issues dealing with compensation and verification procedures (missing livestock, temporal efficiency of compensation procedures, distinction among predators), as well as with prevention methods and husbandry techniques. Finally, we emphasize the need for a comprehensive monitoring program of WLS and correlated variables if more effective and proactive management solutions are to be adopted. INTRODUZIONE L’efficace gestione del conflitto tra Lupo (o altri grandi carnivori) e zootecnia costituisce, in Italia come altrove, uno degli elementi principali di una strategia funzionale di conservazione della specie (Boitani 2000). Qualsiasi soluzione di questo antico problema non puo prescindere da un’analisi approfondita che miri alla descrizione, caratterizzazione e quantificazione del conflitto tra Lupo e zootecnia. Studiare ed analizzare il problema implica la possibilita di affrontarlo con maggiore rigore e di poter valutare opzioni di gestione imponderabili allo stato attuale delle conoscenze. Le amministrazioni e la comunita tecnica e scientifica si devono quindi impegnare per stimolare studi specifici atti alla quantificazione, descrizione e monitoraggio del conflitto e all’individuazione di soluzioni di gestione innovative e funzionali. In questa prospettiva, si e voluto qui procedere ad una revisione degli studi condotti sull’argomento in Italia ed all’estero, offrendo una discussione critica dei metodi di studio e della loro interpretabili
Large carnivores are amongst the most susceptible species to human activities, and humanmodified ... more Large carnivores are amongst the most susceptible species to human activities, and humanmodified environments pose a threat to carnivore conservation. Wolves (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) in the central Apennines, Italy, have coexisted with humans since historic times, and represent a good case study to assess their spatio-temporal response to anthropogenic factors. From 2008−2010, we investigated the spatial behavior of wolves (7 wolves in 5 packs, and 6 floaters) in the Abruzzo Lazio and Molise National Park. Orographycally corrected annual home ranges of resident wolf packs, estimated through the Brownian bridge movement model, averaged 104 (±24 SD) km 2 , whereas floaters used 2-to 4-fold larger areas (293.8−408.7 km 2). We did not detect any seasonal effect on home range size, but home ranges were larger during the night and in areas of greater road density, especially during summer. By estimating core areas through an individualbased approach, we also revealed a habitat-mediated response to human presence and activity as resident wolves preferentially established core areas at greater elevation and in the more forested and inaccessible portions of the home range. Key words (anthropogenic effects, Brownian Bridge Movement Model, Canis lupus, core areas, home range, GPS-telemetry, wolf) https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/cjz-pubs Canadian Journal of Zoology https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/cjz-pubs Canadian Journal of Zoology c Primary and secondary paved roads. d Although M26 pair-bonded with F23, we selected the former due to its longer tracking period and greater acquisition rate.
The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because... more The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because of conflicts with human activities. Modeling is an important tool to predict wolf dynamics and expansion, and help in decision making concerning management and conservation. However, some individual behaviors and pack dynamics of the wolf life cycle are still unclear to ecologists. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) to project wolf populations while exploring the lesser-known processes of the wolf life cycle. IBMs are bottom-up models that simulate the fate of individuals interacting with each other, with population-level properties emerging from the individual-level simulations. IBMs are particularly adapted to represent social species such as the wolf that exhibits complex individual interactions. Our IBM predicts wolf demography including fine-scale individual behavior and pack dynamics based on up-to-date scientific literature. We explore four processes of the wolf life cycle whose consequences on population dynamics are still poorly understood: the pack dissolution following the loss of a breeder, the adoption of young dispersers by packs, the establishment of new packs through budding, and the different types of breeder replacement. While running different versions of the IBM to explore these processes, we also illustrate the modularity and flexibility of our model, an asset to model wolf populations experiencing different ecological and demographic conditions. The different parameterization of pack dissolution, territory establishment by budding, and breeder replacement processes influence the most the projections of wolf populations. As such, these processes require further field investigation to be better understood. The adoption process has a lesser impact on model predictions. Being coded in R to facilitate its understanding, we expect that our model will be used and further adapted by ecologists for their own specific applications. .
Proceedings of the 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology, 2018
Climate and land use changes are the main drivers of biodiversity loss and species distribution r... more Climate and land use changes are the main drivers of biodiversity loss and species distribution range contractions. Previous studies have primarily explored the direct effects of these drivers on biodiversity while ignoring the indirect effects that come through other species. Models ignoring these mechanisms are prone to erroneous predictions of how global change impacts biodiversity, which impedes our ability to make effective management decision for biodiversity conservation. Here, we focus on the brown bear (Ursus arctos), a well-studied omnivore species that has trophic interactions with many different taxa. We aim understand how direct and indirect impacts of climate and land use change would affect the future distribution and vulnerability of different populations across Europe. We first conducted a literature search in Web of Science and Google Scholar to gather all available brown bear diet studies in Europe, based on faecal or stomach content. From the 32 identified studies, we selected 16 in which food items were described at the species level. In total, we compiled information on ~100 species that are generally consumed by brown bears. We constructed a spatial dataset assigning diet to different populations. We download well-defined and located occurrence data for all species found in the diet of the from brown bear from GBIF. To build reliable species distribution models for all these species, we used biomod2 in R that provides multiple algorithms and allows generating ensemble of species predictions per species. We control for the potential spatial bias in GBIF in the selection of pseudo-absence data following recommendation by Phillips et al. 2006. Single species distribution models for all species found in the diet were finally built in function of current climate and land use data. Using different scenarios for climate and land use change, we projected the future distributions of the brown bear diet species. Finally, using these projections and scenarios, we calculated the potential current and future suitable habitats of brown bear in Europe in function of its diet, climate and land use. The range dynamic of the brown bear was best explained by considering both direct and indirect impacts. Accounting for diet (indirect effect) buffered the direct impact of climate and land use change. Our results highlight the importance of taking a food-web ecosystem approach to evaluate the impact of global changes and predict modifications in the distribution and vulnerability of species.peerReviewe
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY
Whereas numerous studies on large carnivores have focused on analyzing spatial patterns and habit... more Whereas numerous studies on large carnivores have focused on analyzing spatial patterns and habitat use, the temporal dimension of their activity has been relatively little investigated, making this a topic of growing interest, especially in human-dominated landscapes. Relict and isolated Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) have been living in a human-modified landscape since millennia, but no information is available on their activity patterns. By means of GPS telemetry (26,880 GPS locations collected from 18 adult Apennine brown bears) we investigated their circadian rhythms, using hourly movement rates as an index of bear activity. Based on a Bayesian modeling approach, circadian activity of Apennine brown bears was described by a bimodal curve, with peaks of activity around sunrise and sunset. We revealed seasonal effects, with bears exhibiting higher movement rates throughout the mating season, but no relevant influence of sex. In addition, bears increased their movement rate at distances < 100-500 m to roads and settlements exclusively during spring and late summer, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and risk avoidance. The absence of a marked nocturnality in Apennine brown bears suggests a relatively low degree of habitat encroachment and disturbance by humans. Yet, the occurrence of crepuscular activity patterns and the responses in proximity of anthropogenic landscape features likely indicate a coadaptation by bears to human presence through a shift in their temporal niche. Further studies should aim to unveil fitness implications of such modifications in activity patterns. For wildlife species, survival and reproductive instincts can be fundamental factors determining animals' activity, inducing individuals to temporally segregate from predators or overlap with prey 1 , and to coordinate for mating 2,3. Circadian rhythms in animals, defined as cyclicity in behavior, physiology, hormone levels and biochemistry on a daily basis 4 , are an adaptation to the changing environmental conditions that characterize the 24 hours 4. In mammals, a number of genes are responsible for the expression of circadian rhythmicity 5 , which is controlled by a master pacemaker made of two clusters of neurons in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) of the hypothalamus 4,5. The central oscillator in the SCN generates an endogenous rhythmicity, following a cycle of about 24 hours, which can be entrained and modified by the interaction between physiological and external factors ('Zeitgeber') 6,7 , such as temperature 8 and light 7. This circadian clock regulates a variety of processes and physiological parameters, including wakefulness and rest, metabolism and blood pressure 5. Among external factors, human disturbance and encroachment may profoundly impact the activity rhythms of wildlife species, clearly depending on the nature and extent of human pressure 9. Humans are perceived as a predator to which animals associate a risk and whose perception differs among species, individuals, seasons, and times of the day, varying according to the type of anthropogenic activity 9,10. In such circumstances, especially in human-modified landscapes, wildlife species can increase nocturnal activity, hence adapting their spatiotemporal niche, with the aim to avoid contact with humans 9. While this flexibility in wildlife's circadian rhythms is a key component of their adaptive strategies for co-habiting with humans 11 , it is also likely that drastic changes in activity occur at the expense of the individual's fitness, causing stress, reducing foraging efficiency and reproductive success, eventually with cascading effects across entire ecological communities 12,13. Large carnivores, in particular, are highly sensitive to human activity 14,15 , and they represent model species to study the nature and extent of wildlife's behavioral adaptation to human-modified landscapes 16. Mountain lions (Puma concolor) in developed areas of California, for instance, are more active at night than during the day, and they move further and expend more calories near human settlements at night compared to areas with lower human development 17. Wolves (Canis lupus
Extensive introgression of genes from domesticated taxa may be a serious threat for the genomic i... more Extensive introgression of genes from domesticated taxa may be a serious threat for the genomic integrity and adaptability of wild populations. Grey wolves (Canis lupus) are especially vulnerable to this phenomenon, but there are no studies yet assessing the potential behavioural effects of dogintrogression in wolves. In this study, we conducted a rst systematic comparison of admixed (N = 11) and non-admixed wolves (N = 14) in captivity, focusing on their reaction to unfamiliar humans and novel objects, and the cohesiveness of their social groups. When exposed to unfamiliar humans in the experimental task, wolves were more vigilant, fearful and aggressive than admixed wolves, and less likely to approach humans, but also more likely to spend time in human proximity. When exposed to novel objects, wolves were more aggressive than admixed wolves, less likely to spend time in object proximity, and more likely to interact with objects, but also less vigilant and as fearful as admixed wolves. Finally, social networks were mostly more cohesive in wolves than admixed wolves. Overall, our study suggests that dog admixture may lead to important behavioural changes in wolves, with possible implications for conservation strategies.
food subsidies hinder the ecological role of wolves: Insights for conservation of apex predators ... more food subsidies hinder the ecological role of wolves: Insights for conservation of apex predators in human-modified landscapes, Global Ecology and Conservation (2019), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.gecco.2019.e00841. This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because... more The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because of conflicts with human activities. Modeling is an important tool to project wolf dynamics and expansion, and help in decision making concerning management and conservation. However, some individual behaviors and pack dynamics of the wolf life cycle are still unclear to ecologists. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) to project wolf populations while exploring the lesser-known processes of the wolf life cycle. IBMs are bottom-up models that simulate the fate of individuals interacting with each other, with population-level properties emerging from the individual-level simulations. IBMs are particularly adapted to represent social species such as the wolf that exhibits complex individual interactions. Our IBM projects wolf demography including fine-scale individual behavior and pack dynamics based on up-to-date scientific literature. We explore four processes of the wolf life cycle whose consequences on population dynamics are still poorly understood: the pack dissolution following the loss of a breeder, the adoption of young dispersers by packs, the establishment of new packs through budding, and the different breeder replacement strategies. While running different versions of the IBM to explore these processes, we also illustrate the modularity and flexibility of our model, an asset to model wolf populations experiencing different ecological and demographic conditions. The different parameterization of pack dissolution, territory establishment by budding, and breeder replacement processes influence the projections of wolf populations. As such, these processes require further field investigation to be better understood. The adoption process has a lesser impact on model projections. Being coded in R to facilitate its understanding, we expect that our model will be used and further adapted by ecologists for their own specific applications.
Summary We hereby discuss nature and implications of wolflivestock conflict (WLC) for wolf conser... more Summary We hereby discuss nature and implications of wolflivestock conflict (WLC) for wolf conservation in Italy. By reviewing the published studies and technical reports on WLC in Italy we describe the state of the art of current knowledge, illustrate research needs, and provide a general methodological discussion to stimulate further studies. Current knowledge on WLC in Italy is detailed according to basic parameters (compensation costs; nature and extent of depredations; distribution and trends of WLC at local and national scales; seasonal, ecological, husbandry and behavioral correlates of WLC). Based on accumulated experience and recent studies both in Italy and abroad, we also discuss issues dealing with compensation and verification procedures (missing livestock, temporal efficiency of compensation procedures, distinction among predators), as well as with prevention methods and husbandry techniques. Finally, we emphasize the need for a comprehensive monitoring program of WLS and correlated variables if more effective and proactive management solutions are to be adopted. INTRODUZIONE L’efficace gestione del conflitto tra Lupo (o altri grandi carnivori) e zootecnia costituisce, in Italia come altrove, uno degli elementi principali di una strategia funzionale di conservazione della specie (Boitani 2000). Qualsiasi soluzione di questo antico problema non puo prescindere da un’analisi approfondita che miri alla descrizione, caratterizzazione e quantificazione del conflitto tra Lupo e zootecnia. Studiare ed analizzare il problema implica la possibilita di affrontarlo con maggiore rigore e di poter valutare opzioni di gestione imponderabili allo stato attuale delle conoscenze. Le amministrazioni e la comunita tecnica e scientifica si devono quindi impegnare per stimolare studi specifici atti alla quantificazione, descrizione e monitoraggio del conflitto e all’individuazione di soluzioni di gestione innovative e funzionali. In questa prospettiva, si e voluto qui procedere ad una revisione degli studi condotti sull’argomento in Italia ed all’estero, offrendo una discussione critica dei metodi di studio e della loro interpretabili
Large carnivores are amongst the most susceptible species to human activities, and humanmodified ... more Large carnivores are amongst the most susceptible species to human activities, and humanmodified environments pose a threat to carnivore conservation. Wolves (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) in the central Apennines, Italy, have coexisted with humans since historic times, and represent a good case study to assess their spatio-temporal response to anthropogenic factors. From 2008−2010, we investigated the spatial behavior of wolves (7 wolves in 5 packs, and 6 floaters) in the Abruzzo Lazio and Molise National Park. Orographycally corrected annual home ranges of resident wolf packs, estimated through the Brownian bridge movement model, averaged 104 (±24 SD) km 2 , whereas floaters used 2-to 4-fold larger areas (293.8−408.7 km 2). We did not detect any seasonal effect on home range size, but home ranges were larger during the night and in areas of greater road density, especially during summer. By estimating core areas through an individualbased approach, we also revealed a habitat-mediated response to human presence and activity as resident wolves preferentially established core areas at greater elevation and in the more forested and inaccessible portions of the home range. Key words (anthropogenic effects, Brownian Bridge Movement Model, Canis lupus, core areas, home range, GPS-telemetry, wolf) https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/cjz-pubs Canadian Journal of Zoology https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/cjz-pubs Canadian Journal of Zoology c Primary and secondary paved roads. d Although M26 pair-bonded with F23, we selected the former due to its longer tracking period and greater acquisition rate.
The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because... more The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because of conflicts with human activities. Modeling is an important tool to predict wolf dynamics and expansion, and help in decision making concerning management and conservation. However, some individual behaviors and pack dynamics of the wolf life cycle are still unclear to ecologists. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) to project wolf populations while exploring the lesser-known processes of the wolf life cycle. IBMs are bottom-up models that simulate the fate of individuals interacting with each other, with population-level properties emerging from the individual-level simulations. IBMs are particularly adapted to represent social species such as the wolf that exhibits complex individual interactions. Our IBM predicts wolf demography including fine-scale individual behavior and pack dynamics based on up-to-date scientific literature. We explore four processes of the wolf life cycle whose consequences on population dynamics are still poorly understood: the pack dissolution following the loss of a breeder, the adoption of young dispersers by packs, the establishment of new packs through budding, and the different types of breeder replacement. While running different versions of the IBM to explore these processes, we also illustrate the modularity and flexibility of our model, an asset to model wolf populations experiencing different ecological and demographic conditions. The different parameterization of pack dissolution, territory establishment by budding, and breeder replacement processes influence the most the projections of wolf populations. As such, these processes require further field investigation to be better understood. The adoption process has a lesser impact on model predictions. Being coded in R to facilitate its understanding, we expect that our model will be used and further adapted by ecologists for their own specific applications. .
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