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(PDF) Investment appraisal of Poplar Plantations in Serbia
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Investment appraisal of Poplar Plantations in Serbia

Baltic Forestry

AI-generated Abstract

The study analyzes the commercial profitability of poplar plantations in Serbia, focusing on the financial investment and returns across different rotation periods and soil types. Utilizing methods like net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period (PBP), the research found that while shorter rotations on quality soil can be profitable at lower discount rates, overall profitability is challenging under typical conditions, especially with higher discount rates.

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ƒ/9:=74e>;54ƒ$$ ;7;F/49=9=2/7*$ =e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aterial and methods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f;O5;:49/b6E=g /DD;<:4982;2?= F7/92/24;9 /8= /@7= $* /@7= $ 0?;B0 2?= /996/7 D;020 ;C / F7/92/24;9 49 =<@4/ ;5=< 2?= F=<4;: ;C $+ 1=/<0 ;9  ?/ C;< 0/EF7= F7;2 9;*$  F7/92498 :=90421 +N+E C;<=0221F=F;F7/<;9C;0047?1:<;E;<F?4D@7/D> 0;47?6E;0=E487=1;97;=00&/776546E* /0?;62C7;B 40 F<=0=92 49 2?= C4<02 % 1=/<0  /9: D/0? 49C7;B C<;E    BALTIC FORESTRY ! 22    22   0# B F/24/7 :402<4@624;9  U6/742/245= /9: U6/9242/& 245= 02<6D26<= ;C 2?= 026:4=: F7/92/24;90 % " "                1 tal " <%   C*=2I = 2 = 2 = 2 = 2 = 2 = 2 I*="I I*="I I*="I 2 2 f=CC # %    *                "' ' '   % +  C < '                  7""                    C" #  +% ',  81/19 77/23 70/30 86/14 86/14 87/13 83/17 82/18 75/25 88/12 87/13 86/14   '  +0,              88/12                    0D?=E/24D 2?499498 49 1=/< + /9: /2 2?= =9: ;C <;2/& 24;9492?40D/0=/22?=/8=;C$+* 9 2?= 0=D;9: F?/0=  :/2/ B=<= D;77=D2=: C<;E E/9/8=E=92 /9: E/2=<4/70 @;;>0 ;C 2?= C;<=02 =92=<& F<40=* 92?=04N2?1=/< 0=7=D245=2?499498B/0F=<C;<E=: 49/77F7;20* 7749D;E=2?=5/76=;C .5=9==</9:. F==74987;80 24E@=<B;;:D7/00 /9: /9:F67FB;;: /9:D;0202;2/706<5=1 7;88498/9:F<;D=00498 :</8& 8498 D;EF=90/24;9C;<2?=C=77=:2<==0F/4:@12?=C;<& =02 =92=<F<40= 2; 2?= 49402<1 ;C 8<4D6726<=  </:= ;<=02<1 /9: /2=< /9/8=E=92 <=7/2=: 2; 2?= C49/7 D622498B=<=D;77=D2=::4<=D271492?=C4=7:/9:D;92<;7& 7=:492?=;CC4D4/7:;D6E=92/24;9;C2?=C;<=02=92=<F<40= =e/$T@* ;020/<==NF<=00=:F=<6942/<=/?/ /22?=F<4D=049C;<D=49#/96/<1$ D;95=<2=:492; =6<;„*49D= /77026:4=:02/9:0/<=02/2=&;B9=:/9: E/9/8=:@12?=6@74D ;<=0292=<F<40=f;O5;:49/b6& E=g 2?=5/76=D;02;C2?=7/9:7/9:<=92:4:9;2=92=< 492;2?=D/7D67/24;90=e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t  ⎛ ⎜ NPV = ∑ ( Rt − Ct ) ⋅ ⎜ 1 r t =1 ⎜ 1+ ⎝ 100 ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ n  B?=<='  40D/0?49C7;B491=/<   40D/0?;62C7;B 49 1=/<    40 2?= :40D;692 </2=  /9: %40 2?= F7/92/& 24;9/8=* ?=5/76=;C$RB/0D?;0=9C;<2?=@/0=:40D;692 </2=  B?4D? 40 /@;62 2?= /5=</8= ;C 2?= </98= &%R <=D;EE=9:=:  $%C;<2?==5/76/24;9;C=D;9;E4D 495=02E=92049:=5=7;F498T2</90424;9D;692<4=0=6& E/99/9:[4EE=<E/99$*<;C42/@47421B/0/70;2=02& =:C;<2?=:40D;692</2=0;CR +R/9:)R* ; :=2=<E49= 2?= 5/76= ;C 2?= :40D;692 </2= /2 B?4D?/495=02E=9240I=<;KW.2?=49& 2=<9/7</2=;C<=26<9K M(2?=C;77;B498C;<E67/B/0 0;75=:C;<'  ⎛ ⎜ 1 (Rt − Ct ) ⋅ ⎜  0= ∑ t =0 ⎜1 + r ⎝ 100 n t ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ $ D/7D67/2=02?=</2=/2B?4D?2?=;C/F<;O=D2 =U6/70 I=<;* DD;<:498 2; 2?40 E=2?;: 4C 2?= D;02 ;C D/F42/7;C/D;EF/9140E;<=2?/92?=  2?=F<;O=D2 B477@=<=O=D2=:/9:4C42407;B=<2?/92?=D;02;CD/F& 42/7424074>=712;@=/DD=F2=:* /9:D;9D=F20 /<=D;<<=7/2=:;B=2*/7* 7=EF=<=<$(* /1@/D> F=<4;: D/7D67/2=0 2?= 24E= 2/>=9 @1 / F<;O=D2 2; <=D;6F 2?= 49424/7 495=02E=92*  D;EF/91 =5/76/2498 F<;O=D20 @1 2?40 2=D?94U6= B;67: F<=C=< F<;O=D20B42?/0?;<2F/1@/D>F=<4;:</2?=<2?/92?;0= B42?7;98=<F/1@/D>F=<4;:0* 24004EF7=2;D/7D67/2= /9:=/012;69:=<02/9:67/ ;86=$* F& F74D/24;9;C2?=F/1@/D>F=<4;:D/7D67/24;9D/9 /CC=D28<=/2712?=<=74/@47421;CF<=:4D24982?=:=8<== ;C=D;9;E4D=CC=D245=9=00;C495=02E=920 /9:/70;2?= F;2=924/7 <40>0 C;< 2?= 495=02;< 49 ?40 :=D404;90* ?= F/1@/D>402?=24E=<=U64<=:C;<2?=D/0?49C7;B0C<;E / D/F42/7 495=02E=92 F<;O=D2 2; =U6/7 2?= 49424/7 D/0? ;62C7;B0* /1@/D> 40 ;C2=9 60=: /0 / fC4<02 0D<==9& 498 E=2?;:g* 1 2?40  B= E=/9 2?/2 B?=9 / D/F42/7 495=02E=92F<;O=D240@=49806@O=D2=:2;C49/9D4/7/F& F</40/7 2?=C4<02U6=024;92;/0>40'V;B7;98B47742 2/>=2;F/1@/D>420D;02`-?=;<8/940/24;9E48?2?/5= /2/<8=2F/1@/D>;0>490/9:6E=1 4>=% =C7=1+ /9:0;42B;67:<=O=D2/D/F42/7F<;O=D2 697=00 420 F/1@/D> F=<4;: B/0 7=00 2?/9 2?/2 2/<8=2    271 BALTIC FORESTRY ! 22    22  F/1@/D> F=<4;:* FF74D/24;9 ;C 2?= F/1 @/D> F=<4;: E=2?;::=2=<E49=02?=F/1@/D>F=<4;:;C495=02E=920 C;< =N/EF7= 4:=924C4=0 2?= F=<4;: ;C /E;<240/24;9 ;C 495=02E=920 @/0=: ;9 2?= :19/E4D E;:=7 ;C 495=02& E=92D/7D67/24;9*?40F=<4;:D/9/70;@=:=C49=:/0/ F/<2;C2?=F7/99=:F=<4;:;C2?=/00=2=NF7;42/24;9;C B;;:49/F;F7/<F7/92/24;9 49B?4D?4240F;004@7=2; <=26<92?=495=02=:D/F42/7/9:2?=/FF<;F<4/2=492=<& =02 69:=< 2?= 845=9 492=<=02 </2=*  Ip PBP = Acf ( B?=<='.d2?=F/1@/D>F=<4;:   .2?=D;02;C2?= F<;O=D2;<49424/7F/1E=92 '.2?=/996/7D/0?C7;B* =9=C42.D;02</24;40/949:4D/2;< 60=:492?= C;<E/7:40D4F749=;CD;02&@=9=C42/9/710402?/2/22=EF20 2;06EE/<4I=2?=;5=</775/76=C;<E;9=1;C/F<;O=D2;< F<;F;0/7*  40 2?= </24; ;C 2?= @=9=C420 ;C / F<;O=D2 ;< F<;F;0/7  =NF<=00=: 49 E;9=2/<1 2=<E0  <=7/245= 2; 420 D;020 /70;=NF<=00=:49E;9=2/<12=<E0;<2?D;22$ =92=2/7*$$ $%  =<</</$* 77@=9=C420/9:D;020 0?;67: @= =NF<=00=: 49 :40D;692=: F<=0=92 5/76=0*  R= ∑R ∑C r ) r B?=<='  . 2?= @=9=C42&  D;02 </24;    . 2?= F<=0=92 5/76=0 ;C D;020    . 2?= F<=0=92 5/76= ;C @=9=C420* Cshouflow % " "  1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.  D '  0 1 2 3 4 5 6 24 g  26 g  26 g  26 g  26 g  30 g  29 g  29 g  29 g  32 g  37 g  42 g  42 g   %  2  2       ' %' ?=0= C;6< E=2?;:0 /<= 9;B/:/10 60=: 49 /77 D;692<4=0;5=<2?=B;<7:492?=/FF</40/7;C495=02E=92 =D;9;E4D0=CC=D245=9=00*?=:19/E4DE=2?;:002/<2 B42?2?=/006EF24;92?/2E;9=1?/042024E=5/76= 4: =02/D=<2/49/E;692;CE;9=1:;=09;2?/5=2?=0/E= 5/76= 2;:/1 /9: 49 / D=<2/49 C626<= E;E=92 ;C 24E= B?4D?405=<1492=<=02498F/<24D67/<7149C;<=02<1B?=<= <;2/24;90 /<= 5=<1 7;98* ;  42 40 9=D=00/<1 2; =5/76& /2= C626<= D;020 /9: @=9=C420 2; @= :=:6D=: /2 2?= F<=0=92E;E=92;C24E=422498=<$ P?<4D?$ P2I==2/7*$* Results ?=E=/95/76=;CF7;2=02/@740?E=92/9:E/9/8=& E=92 D;020 @=2B==9  /9: + 1=/<0 40 ( $%* „ ?/&# * ?=49D;E=C<;E2?499498B/0+$„?/&* 22?==9:;C <;2/24;9F<;:6D24;9D1D7= ,$@=2B==9$)&)$1=/<0 <=5=96=0B=<= $(++/9:+„?/&#C;<$) (/9:)$1=/<0 <=0F=D245=71*?=5/76=0C;</2/ :40D;692 </2= ;C W$R B=<= 9=8/245= 49 /77 026:4=: F7;20  /9: </98=: C<;E . %%*) 2; .$ +*f ?/& /@7=(* 22?=/996/77=5=7 $49:4D/2=:/04E47/< 2<=9:;C:=D749=B42?49D<=/0498/8=/@7=)* ?=C49/9D4/7=CC=D20C;<2?=F7/92/24;90B=<=/70; =024E/2=: 60498 :40D;692 </2=0 ;C R  +R /9: )R 69:=< 2?= D;9:424;9 2?/2 2?= D;020 /9: <=5=96=0 /<= 's %rs 2040.48 2227.48 2392.88 2472.35 2533.93 2588.92 2812.96 3012.70  3015.57  2983.14  2977.74  2942.77  2889.45  2884.00  2885.74  2925.69  2865.10  2896.20  2844.90  2817.25  0 0 0 0 0 0 539.16 1269.68  1176.97  1282.74  1391.90  1196.56  1076.35  1011.22  1008.39  1134.29  924.44  896.63  682.91  682.45  g%rJg   r=/") )0 2040.48 209.44 207.48 111.65 96.90 96.90 442.22 3031.75  3857.77  3688.25  3585.44  2919,61  2996.38  2529.66  2576.24  3644.95  2843.47  5513.48  3727,64  3246.93  0 0 0 0 0 0 1064.20 11088.30  12144.08  14157.86  16236.34  12516.98  16094.21  12627.73  12551.97  15919.76  14479.44  23676.36  16779.22  16725.84  2040.48 187.00 165.40 79.47 61.58 54.98 224.04 199.74 3012.70 202.61 3015.57 193.71 2983.14 188.31 2977.74 153.34 2942.77 100.01 2889.45 94.57 2884.00 96,31 2885.74 136.26 2925.69 75.66 2865.10 83.25 2896,20 31.94 2844.90 27.82 2817.25 (9B ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 539.16 730.52 1269.68 637.82 1176.97 743.58 1282.74 852.75 1391.90 657.40 1196.56 537.19 1076.35 472.07 1011.22 469.23 1008.39 595.13 1134.29 385.28 924.44 357.48 896,63 143.75 682.91 143.29 682.45 J2040.48 J2227.48 J2392.88 J2472.35 J2533.93 J2588.92 J2273.80 J1743.02  J1838.60  J1700.41  -1585.84  J1746.22  J1813.10  J1872.78  J1877.35  J1791.41  J1940.66  J1999.57  -2161.99  J2134.80   0# " =5=96=0 /9: D;020 9=2F<=0=925/76=/9:2?= /5=</8=9=2F<=0=925/76=$  /2/:40D;692</2=V$RC;<2?= ( 026:4=: F;F7/< F7/92/24;90  . D;020H  . <=5=96=0    . :40D;692=: D;02   . :40D;692=: <=5=96=   $ . /5=</8= <=7/& 245= D;02 :454:=: @1 /8= ;C F7/92/24;9   $ . /5=</8= <=7/245= <=5=96=   . 9=2 F<=0=92 5/76=  $  . /5=</8= 9=2 F<=0=92 5/76= :454:=: @1 /8= ;C F7/92/24;9  272           BALTIC FORESTRY ! 22    22  =U6/7KV M/@7=%* ;</:40D;692</2=;CR 5/76=0B=<=9=8/245=C;</77F7/92/24;90*;04245= 5/76=0C;<W+RB=<=;@0=<5=:;971C;<2?=@=02 042=D7/00=0C;</<;2/24;9;C$+1=/<0 B42?/E/N4E6E ;C%f?/ &/@7=%* 2/:40D;692</2=;C)R  ;C/77026:1F7;20?/:/F;04245=5/76= /9:</98=:C<;E (2;$(„?/ &*  0# W =904245421 ;C Kf g 6"# D;EF/<=: 2; <=7/245= D?/98=0;C   /9:  :40D;692 </2=  W )&$R udy lono. olTy  1. GI 2. . 4. A G 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. FI 10. 11. A G 12. 1. g/g ggl y  Ag    24 26 26 26 26 28 29 29 29 1 7 42 42  : 12%  % 1.74 1.84 1.70 1.59 1.75 1.81 1.87 1.88 1.79 1.94 2.00 2.16 2.1 1.74 1.84 1.70 1.59 1.75 1.81 1.87 1.88 1.79 1.94 2.00 2.16 2.1  : 8%  : 6%  %  % 9B10  0.98 0.98 0.24 0.24 1.1 1.1 0.41 0.41 0.81 0.81 0.10 0.10 0.51 0.51 0.58 0.58 0.92 0.92 0.09 0.09 0.92 0.92 0.08 0.08 1.14 1.14 0.4 0.4 1.15 1.15 0.6 0.6 0.90 0.90 0.06 0.06 1.2 1.2 0.40 0.40 1.19 1.19 0.12 0.12 1.7 1.7 1.10 1.10 1.69 1.69 1.0 1.0  : 4%  % 0.94 0.78 1.60 2.9 1.29 1.86 1.06 1.02 1.76 1.14 2.05 0.1 0.42 0.94 0.78 1.60 2.9 1.29 1.86 1.06 1.02 1.76 1.14 2.05 0.1 0.42  . 6E;87=1   . 7654/7 0=E487=1    . 6E;C7654& 0;47   87=1 =904245421/9/71040;CB/0/70;D/<<4=:;62 C;<D?/98=049D;020/9:14=7:0B42?492?=492=<5/7. (R /<;69: 2?= @/0= 5/76=0* ?=0= D?/98=0 E48?2 @=D/60=:@169B/92=:49C76=9D=006D?/0/@4;24D/9: @4;24D C/D2;<0 B49:  09;B  490=D20  =2D*  C;< W ) . $R* 2 V$R  2?=  $ ;@2/49=: 0?;B=: 2?/2 2?= F<;O=D240E;<=0=904245=2;D?/98=049D;020&+f 4 ?/ &#  2; .$ )f 4 ?/ & 2?/9 2; D?/98=0 49 49D;E= &$ f 4 ?/&2;&%%f 4 ?/&  486<=*?60 420==E0 @=22=< 2; C;D60 =CC;<20 ;9 <=:6D498 F<;:6D24;9 D;020 </2?=<2?/9;949D<=/04982?=49D;E=* 1/9/7104982?=0=904245421;C49<=7/24;92; <=7/245= D?/98=0 ;C   /9:   /2  V )&$R C;< /77 • ·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e/$T/* ?=492=<9/7</2=;C<=26<9K MC;<2?=(026:& 4=:F7;20B/0C;69:2;@=492?=</98=)*($2;+*)R /@7=+*?=?48?=025/76=0B=<=;@2/49=:C;<026:& 4=0;9/77654/70=E487=1 /9:2?=B;<02;9?6E4C7654& 0;7 /9:  87=1* ?= 492=<9/7 </2=0 /<= 7/<8=< C;< F7/92/24;90 ;9 8;;: U6/7421 0;47 21F=0  0642/@7= C;< F;F7/< F7/92/24;9 /7654/7 0=E487=14D 0;47  /9: C;< 0?;<2=< <;2/24;90 /9: 54D= 5=<0/*  5/76=0 ?48?=< 2?/9$RB=<=9;2C;69:492?=<=0=/<D?=:D;02&<=5& =96= </2=0*  0# V /7& St (pt  6=0 ;C 2?= 9&   2=<9/7 /2= ;C   =26<9 .      /2W$R C;<   026:4=: F7;20                  Sitpe H+L :S+ H-L :S+ 0e :e ;" <              ;;D<                 . 6E;87=1   . 7654/7 0=E487=1   . 6E;C76540;47   87=1 70% -0.98 -1 130% -1.55 NPV Cr -2 Rr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r Rr 4.05 130% 3.48 70% 3  2  2       ,! # ? ?/98=0 49 2?= 492=<9/7 </2= ;C <=26<9   49 <=7/24;92;<=7/245=D?/98=049D;02 /9:<=5=96=0 /2 2?= :40D;692 </2=W$R 491;698=<F7/92/24;90 C;<W)R*?40C/D206FF;<202?= D;9D7604;9 2?/2 2?= F<;:6D24;9 D1D7= F=<4;: 49 F;F7/< F7/92/24;90 0?;67: @= 0?;<2=9=:* 9 1;698=< 02/9:0 2?=0426/24;940E;<=C/5;6</@7= 0;69:=<0F=D4/7D;9& :424;902?=F;2=924/77;/9D/9@=<=F/4:*  0# [/1 @/D> F=<4;:   C;< 026:4=: F7;20 :40D;692 </2=0W+R  )R /9: $R udy lono. (%) 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 y r 29 29 25 22 26 29 36 36 33 40 41 80 75 19 19 17 15 18 19 21 21 21 23 22 38 36 14 13 13 12 13 13 15 15 15 15 14 20 19 ?=F/1@/D>F=<4;:C;<2?=:40D;692</2=;C+R </98=0 @=2B==9 $$& 1=/<0  B?4D? 40 69/DD=F2/@7= C<;E2?==D;9;E4D02/9:F;492* ;<W$R2?40</98=40 C/4<71 0?;<2=<  C<;E $ 2;  1=/<0 :=F=9:498 ;9 2?= 0;47 21F= /9: /8= ;C 02/9:0* ?=060D=F24@47421;C492?40D/0=B/0/9/& 710=:@15/<14982?=D;020B42?49&R /9:2?= <=D=4F20@=2B==9&%%R* /0=:;92?=/9/71040;C 060D=F24@47421C;<2?=F/1@/D>F=<4;:E=2?;: 42D/9 @= D;9D76:=: 2?/2 2?= D?/98= 49 <=D=4F20 /9: D;020 49 %R 02=F0 D/9 @= <=F<=0=92=: @1 /9 =NF;9=924/7 C69D24;9/9:2?/240@=2B==9*(&)*+1=/<0* ;< W$R 2?40 </24; 40 2?= E;02 C/5;6</@7= @;2? 49 2?= D/0= ;C D?/98=0 49 <=D=4F20 /9: D?/98=0 49 D;020 =e/$* 5/<4=:492?=</98=*)+.*$)/5=</8=*(+R /2 / :40D;692 </2= ;C $R 2/@7= * ?/2 F</D24D/771 E=/902?/22?=D;020/<=$*24E=0?48?=<2?/9<=D=4F20 C;<W$R*?=<=C;<=42D/9@=D7/4E=:2?/24240=D;& 9;E4D/771 69/DD=F2/@7= 2; 495=02 49 06D? 02/9:0  @62 O602B?=9W$R* =904245421/9/71040;CB/0/70;D/<<4=:;62C;<  V .$R 49 2?= </98= ;C D?/98=0 ;C D;020 /9: <=& D=4F207;B=<2?/9* ;<V).+R2?=<=/<=D/0=0B?=<= 2?40 </24; 40 /@;5= * ?60  42 0==E0 @=22=< 2; C;D60  0# j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a H ,P- " /-  " -/ "/"-/  ""/ -  "-.  " . -  " ""- "" -/ "". -/. / -  / -  -/" -  $ '&!'  +H ,P "-.   -.  /..-.  / -.. /-"  /-   -  / - /  " - .  -"  / -   -/  ".-  2*$)!() + !a   /          / /    " .   A   274            4 - " - / - . - . -   -. - " - -/  - -"  -  -  !#& BALTIC FORESTRY ! 22    22  2       =CC;<20 ;9 <=:6D498 2?= :40D;692 </2=  <=0F=D245=71  486<=(* 4 70% 3.61 3.5 3 2.5 Cr 2 R 1.5 1 130% 0.5 130% 0 Rr 70% 0.46 0.28 0.04 ,! # B ?/98=0 49 2?= @=9=C42&D;02 49:=N 49 <=7/24;9 2;<=7/245=D?/98=049D;02 /9:<=5=96=0 /22?=:40& D;692 </2= W$R ?=97;B=<:40D;692</2=0/<=/FF74=:<=/D?=0 * ;< WR W* C;< W+RW*)* ?=9 V)R F;F7/< F7/92/24;90 /<= F<;C42/@7= /9: C;<  495=02=: =6<; ;9=D/9=/<9*$$„* ?/98=0 ;C  :=F=9:498 ;9 D;020 C;77;B /9 =N& F;9=924/7 C69D24;9 /9: ;9 2?= ;2?=< ?/9: D?/98=0 ;C  :=F=9:498 ;9 D?/98=0 ;C <=D=4F20 C;77;B / 749=/< C69D24;9 486<=)* ,! # " ?/98=0 49 2?= @=9=C42&D;02 49:=N 49 <=7/24;9 2;<=7/245=D?/98=049D;02 /9:<=5=96=0 /22?=:40& D;692 </2= W$R C;< 2?= 026:4=: F7;2 ;* ) Discussion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e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e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„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ƒ*4CC=<=92/62?;<0/9/710= :4CC=<=92C;<F;F7/<F7/92/24;90:=F=9:498;92?= 0;4721F= /8=;C02/9: F7/92:=90421/9:D74E/2=* 9 9:4/?477;9=2*/7*E=924;9;C1=/<0  ?/9:</ /@;621=/<0 ?/9:</+ D=99=1492?=</98= &$$ 1=/<0 D=99=1 =2*/7* $ /9: /24C =2*/7* E=924;90%1=/<0C;<F;F7/<F7/92/24;9049/7/104/* 602E=924;902?/249 7/9:<4/2?=F;F7/< F7/92/24;90/5=</8= @=9=C42&D;02f5/76=40492?=</98= *)&$* 496<>=1*%&$*<>/9$$  4<7=<+ /9:49/>402/94240*%+&*$$4::4U64=2*/7** 971/FF74D/24;9;C/77C;6<E=2?;:0845=00;76& 24;90 2; 495=02E=92 4006=0 49 F;F7/< F7/92/24;90 49 8=9=</7*?=;@0=<5=:D?/</D2=<4024D0 06D?/00;4721F= /9: /8=  /<= 2?= :4<=D24;90 C;< 2?= =02/@740?E=92 ;C 492=9045=F;F7/<F7/92/24;90492?=C626<= B?4D?B477 @= D;02&=CC=D245= =5=9 69:=< /9 492=<=02 </2=  B?4D? 402?=6FF=<74E42;CD;02&=CC=D245=9=00;C495=02E=920 49F;F7/<D67245/24;9/@;62+R* ?40 F/F=< 0?;B0 2?/2 ?1@<4: F;F7/< F7/92/24;90 D/9@=F<;C42/@7=4CC49/9D=:/2492=<=02</2=0492?=</98= )&R* 9;<:=<2?=0=?48?71F<;:6D245=F7/92/24;90E48?2 @=D;02&=CC=D245=42409=D=00/<12;</40=2?=E;9/:=& U6/2=042=0T?/@42/20 76540;7/9:0=E487=1/9:2?/22?= <;2/24;9 :=F=9:498;92?=F6<F;0=;CF7/92/24;90/9: E/<>=2D;9:424;90 E602@=0?;<2=9=: 2;%&$1=/<0* ?=D6<<=92F<=0D<4@=:F=<4;:40$%1=/<0* Conclusions /0=:;9;C2?=/9/71040F=<C;<E=:604982?= E=2?;: 42D/9@=D;9D76:=:2?/22?=F<;O=D2C;<2?=F=<4;: ;C $)&)$ 1=/<0 B/0 69F<;C42/@7=  @=D/60= 2?= 7;00 B/0 /@;62 %+&$ +$„x?/. * ;<2?=F<;O=D22;@=/DD=F2/& @7= @12?= 495=02;<0  2?40</24;E602@=F;04245=/9:49 2?=0=D/0=042409=8/245=*?=<=D=4F20B=<=492?=</98= $*))2;$(*++„x?/.C;<2?=;@0=<5=:02/9:0/22?==9: ;C <;2/24;9* 95=02E=920 49 2?= F7/92/24;90 ;C 2?=0= <;& 2/24;90 /<= /DD=F2/@7= ;971 4C 2?= :40D;692 </2= 40 )R* ?= @=02 </24; 40 49 2?= 1;698=02 02/9:0* ?= :40D;692 </2=;C+RD/9@=/DD=F2=:490?;<2=<<;2/24;90491;698& =< 02/9:0* 95=02E=92 69:=< 2?= D/7D67/24;9 </2= ;C )R 40C49/9D4/771O6024C4=:49/77026:1D/0=0* 20?;67:@==E& F?/040=: 2?/2 F<;:6D24;9 ;9 /77654/7 0=E487=1 40 E;02 F<;C42/@7=/22?=/8=;C$+1=/<0$ („x?/. /9:4240 7=/02F<;C42/@7=;92?=0/E=0;47/22?=/8=;C)$1=/<0 („x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cknowledgement 6$$"'6!"$$),:&*"%$-6 %$&  ,)'"% "%, '%'  6 ):+' :"4?!)+,+<6"%<='$ 7811C "%,  7#12#* References $%* =<@4/ /9: ;92=9=8<;' =7=D2=: 006=0 /9: 2/24024D/7 FF=9:4N*   ;692<1 =F;<2 ;* %T$($  /0?498& 2;9 * *    F*$* #    7#    $+* /9 ?1@<4: F;F7/< 0/5= 49:602<4/7 C;<=02<1 49 /9/:/-0 @;<=/7 C;<=02`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k #  ( $%* ;B  9/DD6</2= <= =E/9: ;<=D/020 49 6@74D ;<>0 <;O=D20` ?= /0= ;C </90F;<2/24;9* A)%"+  6 -'"% +"%%%* $$'"% $' (.)+* (# , ##   ;  k #  ( $$* 9:=<=024& E/2498 ;020 49 6@74D ;<>0 <;O=D20' <<;< ;< 4=` A)%"+  6 -'"% +"%%%* $$'"% +(' $.$%* ( #   +* &$) E=7=I >/5/84 F7/92/01;97/<49:/ ?/04& 7/2 /</024<E/7/<4  /5/> 5= 4I74 =740=9 !/@/9D4 6< <E/9 8/D7/<4 </024<E/ 90242606 1/1494  IE42  6<& >=1  F* (* ( #   2    ( $! #    $* 1@<4: F;F7/<0 49 2?= /D4C4D ;<2? =02' 6726<= ;EE=<D= /9: /F/@47421* /0?4982;9 2/2= 945=<0421 677E/9         $$   FF* ( @ '* $* ?= 87;@/7 ;627;;> C;< C626<= B;;: 06FF71 C<;E F7/92/24;90* ;<>498 /F=< ;*  TT( ;<=02<1 ;74D1 /9: 7/99498 45404;9*   ;E=  F* (&* (!   (    ( $  & %* /9D=& ;76E= CC=<=: /9: ;;: <4D=0'  ")$"+& $  "%"+ $$4 $ '%' (' )%&))* ' !#   #G#" # , %* ?= ;90=<5/24;9 ;C  )+)$ %*" * /9: =9= 7;B 42? 67245/2=: ;F7/<0 49 6<;F=* $ %'0 $' (%&))* ' $ 0# (  #GG #  7#    $0    4 ' $$* ;60=?;7: 745=74?;;:0 49 0=E4./<4: <=84;90' F24;90 /9: D;902</4920* ;8;<  9:;9=04/  &  ' "#2 H $* EF4<4D/7 <=867/<424=0 49 2?= F;5=<21. =954<;9E=92 <=7/24;90?4F ;C <6</7 ?;60=?;7:0' 54:=9D= C<;E [4E@/@B=* ?+,  +-% $' .$* ' "#2 H $$* ,6/9242/245= E=2?;:0 C;< =024E/2498 2?= =D;9;E4D 5/76= ;C <=0;6<D= 60= 2; <6</7 ?;60=?;7:0* %' ** /EF@=77 /9: * 6D>=<2 =:0* %' %* 6 6,,% 6" $3 "+)"% -6,$  !,+"%, "%, $ $)'$  ;9:;9  /<2?0D/9  F* .+%* '2    +* ;F7/<'  /0? <;F C;< ;<2? 9:4/9 /<E=<0  %,"% $ $' +&* ' #$#  H ( !2 ' 7 # ,;  ' + #   $' CC=D20 ;C 02;D>498 /9: 2?499498 ;9 B49: :/E/8= 49 F7/92/24;90* ! "+"%, A)%"+  $ '%'$ $' $))&$+* 2    2   2  $* 9 =D;9;E4D /9/71040 ;C F;F7/< D67245/24;9  %,"%  $ $' +&*       = 2 GG   !   $$* 0498 ;<=D/020 ;C /<94980 2; 4E672/9=;6071 024E/2= <;B2? /9: 2?= /2= ;C =26<9 ;9 U6421 95=02E=92* A)%"+  '')%%* $"'6 )' +%&++*   ;  ;    ;## * $$* 4;=9=<& 81 C<;E 0602/49/@7= C;<=02<1' 64:498 F<49D4F7=0 /9: F</D& 24D=* 49' 4D?/<:0;9  #*  OP<?=:=9  *  />>47/  *  ;B= * * /9: E42?  ** :42;<0  76B=< D/:=E4D 6@& 740?=<0  ?= =2?=<7/9:0  F* &*    8 $$* :69 6<=24E /E/D74 >4I47D/E  %)$ :)" =9* /8/D7/9:4<E/7/<49:/ =>;9;E4> /9/74I7=<  /24 >& :=94I <* <* 902* =>94> 67* ;'  92/71/ ,#   $* ;02& =9=C42 9/71040 ;C 6724&=5=7 ;5& =<9E=92' ?= /0= ;C  ;?=04;9 ;74D1 /9:  =:&    277 BALTIC FORESTRY ! 22    22  2       =</7 95=02E=92 ;74D4=0  ;9:;9 /9: =B !;<>' ;627=:8= ,2#   $$* ;60=?;7: B=7C/<= 49 <6</7 /7/B4* </C2 06@E422=: 2; 954<;9E=92 /9: =5=7;FE=92 D;9;E4D0 945=<0421 ;C !;<>  * =!#   $* D;9;E4D 9/71040 ;C 8<4D6726</7 <;O=D20 ?= D;9;E4D 9024262=  92=<9/24;9/7 /9> C;< =D;9& 02<6D24;9 ;C =5=7;FE=92  ?= #;?9 ;F>490 945=<0421 <=00  /724E;<= & ;9:;9 =E*# 3 8 27   72#   $* 95=02E=92 FF</40/7  =2?;:0 /9: ;:=70  F<498=<&=<7/8 =<749 F* ((* = #!# # ;  +* D;9;E4D0 C;< =954<;9E=92/7 /9: 9/26</7 <=0;6<D=0 E/9/8=E=92* =D26<= 9;2=0 C;<  %.$+* 2* /67  ;77=8= ;C /26</7 =0;6<D=0  945=<04& 21 ;C 499=0;2/* = #!# # ;      ! #   '+  # +;# $   %* /76498 C;<=020' ;92=N2 4006=0 /9: 864:=749=0*  ;<=02<1 /F=< ;* $* ;E=* ;#   & +*  06<5=1 ;9 :=5=7;FE=92 /9: F;004@47424=0 ;C 8<;B498' 9/26</7 C;<=02 ;C F;F7/<0 /9: B477;B0* 9 * =<F>/  * /<49>;54ƒ  * <02494ƒ  #* ;i4ƒ  * </2/<4ƒ /9: #* /<>;54ƒ :42;<0  ;F7/<0 /9: B477;B0  ;F7/< =0* 902*  ;54 /:  F* $&(+ 49 =<@4/9 B42? 98740? 06EE/<1* ; #  -#   $-  ;-+ #  (  *   #- &  $* ;EF/<40;9 ;C 5/<4;60 0;6<D=0 ;C 69D=<2/4921 49 02/9:&7=5=7 9=2 F<=0=92 5/76= =0249/2=0* $ +'& "%, '%-'$ $ (&(+* ; '=  $# = * /1@/D>' / E/7489=: E=2?;: ;C /00=2 </9>498`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ƒ * =:* 7;@/7 ?/98= D?/77=98=0 C;< ;47 /9/8=E=92  :5/9D=0 49 '+ *& )* /2=9/ =<7/8  * F* ($&(()* #%  8 $* 40=/0=0 49 F;F7/< F7/92/24;90* )++%  6 "')+&  $& '&( 49 =<@4/9 B42? 98740? 06E& E/< 1 * #!#  * ;<=02 5/76/24;9 C;< :=D404;9.E/>498' =0& 0;90 ;C =NF=<4=9D= /9: F<;F;0/70 C;< 4EF<;5=E=92* ;E=  *  278        2   #$ # #  H $(* ;<=02 =0;6<D= D;9;E4D0 /9: 4& 9/9D=  D</B&477  9D*  =B !;<> %% FF*    * ?= =D;9;E4D0 ;C C;<=02<1  E;:=<9 2?=;<1 /9: F</D24D=  <;;E =7E  ;9:;9  *   FF*  G  2 8   #0    2    l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