Latest Monthly Assessment - Since the November 2024 Monthly Drought Outlook released on October 31, 2024, drought has markedly improved across much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, due in large part to a very active pattern in early November. Conversely, drought conditions have continued to worsen and expand across portions of the Southwest, Rio Grande Valley, Northern High Plains, and the East Coast states.



Looking forward to December 2024, drought persistence is favored across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), associated with a predominantly dry pattern favored through the middle of the month. In areas where warmer and drier than average conditions are favored in the southwestern and southeastern CONUS, and where dry soil moisture signals are most prevalent, some drought development is also favored. Conversely, wetter than average conditions are favored throughout the month of December across portions of the south-central and northwestern CONUS, favoring some potential drought improvement and removal. Toward the latter half of the month, however, uncertainty in the temperature and precipitation outlooks and tools increases. In addition, La Niña conditions have yet to develop at the start of December and only have a 57% chance of developing by the end of 2024. As such, La Niña is not likely to be a major driver of weather patterns throughout December.



In Hawaii, drought persistence is favored through the end of December, associated with above average temperatures and near average precipitation forecast through at least the middle of the month. Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are drought-free with wet antecedent conditions at the start of December, and favorable precipitation outlooks are forecast to keep them drought-free by the end of December.



Forecaster: Adam Hartman



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: December 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EST

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion