Since the official seasonal drought outlook (SDO) for December-January-February (DJF) was released on November 21, short-range to monthly precipitation outlooks have shifted toward a wetter pattern across portions of the southern U.S. from the Southern Plains to the central Gulf Coast. Despite the wetter than average precipitation outlooks over various periods during December, drought persistence is still favored by the end of February, as La Nina is predicted to develop by the end of December 2024 and into January 2025. In locations that have experienced some drought removal in recent weeks in the Florida Panhandle, and those in other locations across the south-central U.S. that may experience some short-term improvement during December, drought may possibly redevelop. In inland portions of southern California, antecedent soil moisture and high chances for a warmer and drier than average December favor some drought development. In the central Appalachians, recent improvements to soil moisture have resulted in some modest improvements in the drought depiction. A favorable synoptic pattern is set up to provide periods of lake effect snow through early December, which may improve conditions further, and a somewhat favorable precipitation outlook and a weak La Nina suggest these improvements could remain through the end of February.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Since the official seasonal drought outlook (SDO) for December-January-February (DJF) was released on November 21, short-range to monthly precipitation outlooks have shifted toward a wetter pattern across portions of the southern U.S. from the Southern Plains to the central Gulf Coast. Despite the wetter than average precipitation outlooks over various periods during December, drought persistence is still favored by the end of February, as La Nina is predicted to develop by the end of December 2024 and into January 2025. In locations that have experienced some drought removal in recent weeks in the Florida Panhandle, and those in other locations across the south-central U.S. that may experience some short-term improvement during December, drought may possibly redevelop. In inland portions of southern California, antecedent soil moisture and high chances for a warmer and drier than average December favor some drought development. In the central Appalachians, recent improvements to soil moisture have resulted in some modest improvements in the drought depiction. A favorable synoptic pattern is set up to provide periods of lake effect snow through early December, which may improve conditions further, and a somewhat favorable precipitation outlook and a weak La Nina suggest these improvements could remain through the end of February.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past month, widespread drought amelioration occurred across portions of northern Texas and northeastern New Mexico, extending northward to the upper Midwest. The onset of the wet season also eroded drought conditions across the Northwest, and an active pattern promoted drought relief across much of the central Appalachians and Corn Belt. Despite the widespread recharge, drought and abnormal dryness continued to blanket nearly three quarters of the contiguous United States as of the December 10, 2024 US Drought Monitor. La Niña conditions are favored to develop during the January - March period, though uncertainty continues regarding the strength of the midlatitude response, especially given the active intraseasonal signal anticipated to continue through January. The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor a canonical La Niña response pattern, with drier conditions across the southern tier of the CONUS, a winter storm track favoring the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and interior New England, and an enhanced wet season for the Northwest. Therefore, further drought reduction is favored for the Northwest, along the Mississippi River Valley, and across the Great Lakes. Frozen streams and soil may slow the recharge of moisture across the upper Midwest and High Plains, as well as climatologically low precipitation amounts. Along the southern tier, drought development is possible for Arizona, portions of New Mexico, southern and eastern Texas, and the Southeast coastal plain. Despite the lack of a clear wet signal, a wet climatology and the potential for coastal systems makes gradual drought reduction the most likely outcome across the Northeast, though given the stark conditions at the onset of the winter season, some lingering drought is likely to persist through the end of March, and breaks in rainfall or low snow cover may result in re-development of drought during the Spring.



Drought conditions have expanded across Hawaii during the past few weeks due to subnormal rainfall. During the core wet season months of January through March, La Niña conditions typically favor increased rainfall across the islands, both due to enhanced trade winds and the potential for Kona Low events. Therefore, drought reduction is favored in this outlook. No drought conditions are currently present or favored to develop across Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: January 16, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion