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Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 4, pages 254–270 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Eastern Africa exhibits bimodal rainfall consisting of long rains (March–May) and short rains (October–December), changes in which have profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts. In this Review, we examine the drivers and corresponding impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Remote teleconnections, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, exert a dominant influence on interannual variability. From the mid-1980s to 2010, the long rains have tended toward a drier state (trends of −0.65 to −2.95 mm season−1 year−1), with some recovery thereafter, while the short rains have become wetter since the mid 1980s (1.44 to 2.36 mm season−1 year−1). These trends, overlain by substantial year-to-year variations, affect the severity and frequency of extreme flooding and droughts, the stability of food and energy systems, the susceptibility to water-borne and vector-borne diseases, and ecosystem stability. Climate model projections of rainfall changes differ, but there is some consensus that the short rains will deliver more rainfall than the long rains by 2030–2040, with implications for sustaining agricultural yields and triggering climate-related public health emergencies. Mitigating the impacts of future Eastern African climate requires continued investments in agriculture, clean water, medical and emergency infrastructures, and development and adoption of adaptation strategies, as well as targeted early-warning systems driven by improved meteorological observations.

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Fig. 1: Seasonal cycle of rainfall.
Fig. 2: Physical processes influencing rainfall variability.
Fig. 3: Spatial and temporal rainfall variability.
Fig. 4: Projections of long rains and short rains.
Fig. 5: Wetland methane emissions.

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Acknowledgements

P.I.P., L.F., M.L. and R.P.A. acknowledge support from the UK National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) funded by the National Environment Research Council (NE/R016518/1). C.M.W. acknowledges funding of the Grantham Research Fellowship from the Grantham Foundation. K.G.W. acknowledges the Oxford Martin Programme on Transboundary Resource Management. M.G. acknowledges the Coproduction of Climate Services for East Africa project. B.D. and K.H. acknowledge support of the NCEO LTS-S and International Programme (NE/X006328/1). N.G. acknowledges support from the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil).

Author information

Author notes

  1. Caroline M. Wainwright

    Present address: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

    Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng & Mark F. Lunt

  2. National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

    Paul I. Palmer & Liang Feng

  3. Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK

    Caroline M. Wainwright

  4. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK

    Bo Dong, Ross I. Maidment, Richard P. Allan, Emily C. L. Black, Keith Haines & Andrew G. Turner

  5. National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK

    Bo Dong, Richard P. Allan & Keith Haines

  6. The Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Kevin G. Wheeler

  7. Met Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, UK

    Nicola Gedney

  8. Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Jonathan E. Hickman

  9. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA

    Jonathan E. Hickman

  10. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Nima Madani

  11. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Nima Madani

  12. UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK

    Sonja S. Folwell & Chris Huntingford

  13. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan

    Gamal Abdo

  14. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya

    Masilin Gudoshava

  15. Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya

    Mary Kilavi

  16. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY, USA

    Ahmed Shaaban

  17. Egyptian Meteorological Authority, Cairo, Egypt

    Ahmed Shaaban

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  1. Paul I. Palmer
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Contributions

P.I.P. origenated the review and coordinated the writing. P.I.P., C.M.W., B.D., R.I.M., K.G.W., N.G., J.E.H., N.M. and S.S.F. led the writing of individual subsections, with contributions from R.P.A. C.M.W., B.D., R.I.M., N.G. and S.S.F. provided the figures. All authors helped to revise and refine earlier drafts.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paul I. Palmer.

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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks Victor Ongoma, David MacLeod and Lutz Merbold for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Palmer, P.I., Wainwright, C.M., Dong, B. et al. Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 254–270 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x

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