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Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 4, pages 407–418 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability increased after 1960, influenced by more frequent strong El Niño and La Niña events. Whether such changes are linked to anthropogenic warming, however, is largely unknown. In this Perspective, we consider anthropogenic impacts on ENSO variability in several commonly used modelling designs, which collectively suggest a greenhouse warming-related effect on post-1960 ENSO SST variability. Specifically, a comparison of simulated ENSO SST variability between 1901–1960 and 1961–2020 indicates that more than three quarters of climate models produce an amplitude increase in post-1960 ENSO SST variability, translating into more frequent strong El Niño and La Niña events. Multiple large ensemble experiments further confirm that the simulated post-1960 ENSO amplitude increase (approximately 10%) is not solely due to internal variability. Moreover, multicentury-long simulations under a constant pre-industrial CO2 level suggest that the observed post-1960 ENSO variability is high, sitting in the highest 2.5 and 10 percentiles for eastern Pacific and central Pacific ENSO, respectively. Improvement in model ENSO physics, identification of consistent future and historical change in additional ENSO characteristics and single-forcing large-ensemble experiments are further needed to ascertain climate change impacts on the ENSO.

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Fig. 1: Observed E-index and C-index from 1901 to 2020.
Fig. 2: Simulated increase in post-1960 El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability.
Fig. 3: Increased post-1960 El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability in butterfly-effect ensembles.
Fig. 4: High variability of the post-1960 El Niño/Southern Oscillation.
Fig. 5: Changes in ocean stratification and in El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability.
Fig. 6: Continued increase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability into the future.

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Data availability

Data relevant to the paper can be downloaded from 20CR v2c at https://portal.nersc.gov/project/20C_Reanalysis/; CERA-20C at https://apps.ecmwf.int/datsets/dat/cera20c-edmo/levtype=sfc/type=an/; ERA-20C at https://apps.ecmwf.int/datsets/data/era20c-moda/levtype=sfc/type=an/; ERSST v3b at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v3.html; HadISST v1.1 at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.hadsst.html; COBE at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe.html; ORA-s3 at http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/datadoc/ecmwf_oras3.php; ORA-s4 at https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/oras4-ecmwf-ocean-reanalysis-and-derived-ocean-heat-content and 111 CMIP6 database at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/.

Code availability

Codes for calculating EOF can be downloaded from: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1d2R8wKpFNW-vMIfoJsbqIGPIBd9Z_8rj.

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Acknowledgements

This project is supported by the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory (LSKJ202203300) and the Strategic Priority Research Programme of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB 40030000). T.G. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project (42206209, 42276006) and China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents (BX20220279). L.W., X.L. and B.G. are supported by the NSFC projects (41490643, 41490640, U1606402 and 41521091). W.C., G.W., B.N. and A.S. are supported by CSHOR, a joint research Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research between QNLM and CSIRO. A.S., B.N. and G.W. are supported by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program (NESP). M.C. was supported by a grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/S004645/1). The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and the authors thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The authors are also grateful to various reanalysis groups for making the data sets available to us. PMEL contribution no. 4957.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Wenju Cai, Tao Geng, Lixin Wu, Guojian Wang, Bolan Gan, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li & Yi Liu

  2. Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Wenju Cai, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang & Agus Santoso

  3. Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China

    Tao Geng, Lixin Wu, Bolan Gan, Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li

  4. Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China

    Fan Jia

  5. The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China

    Yu Liu

  6. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Kai Yang

  7. Australian Research Council (ARC) Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

    Agus Santoso

  8. College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Yun Yang

  9. Department of Atmospheric Science, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

    Fei-Fei Jin

  10. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Mat Collins

  11. NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA

    Michael J. McPhaden

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Contributions

W.C. conceived the article and wrote the initial manuscript in discussion with T.G., B.N. and L.W. B.N. and T.G. performed analysis and generated final figures. All authors contributed to interpreting findings, discussion of the associated dynamics and improvement of this paper.

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Correspondence to Wenju Cai or Lixin Wu.

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Cai, W., Ng, B., Geng, T. et al. Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 407–418 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8

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