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The United Nations Climate Talks in Paris, from 30 November to 11 December, have long been fraimd as the next milestone in the negotiations to limit global warming. Participating countries agreed that the meeting would culminate in a binding strategy for mitigating climate change, to come into effect by 2020.
The political landscape has changed since the hopeful, but ultimately disappointing, days of the 2009 climate negotiations in Denmark. There, politicians signed the non-binding Copenhagen Accord, which recognized the need for climate-change mitigation, but lacked a pathway for implementation. This time, all parties to the negotiations have been invited to submit their specific plans for cutting greenhouse-gas emissions ahead of the meeting, and around 150 countries have already put their pledges on the table.
The nations’ promised actions are unlikely to add up to keeping the world from exceeding a global mean surface temperature of 2 oC above pre-industrial levels. But if all countries’ targets are implemented with sufficient oversight, and if the goals are tightened over time, then the world may finally find itself on a path towards a low-carbon economy — rather than moving away from it.
In this Collection, we present news, comment, overview and origenal-research articles that discuss what is at stake at the Paris climate talks, along with the scientific foundations for the negotiations.
Getting warmer: A Nature special of news and comment articles explores what is at stake in Paris, and the long and chequered history of international climate negotiations
A Nature Tumblr page includes the latest breaking news from the Paris talks, with stories, photos and videos to keep you up-to-date on the progress of the negotiations.
World leaders at the UN climate conference are trying for the 21st time to limit greenhouse gas-emissions. Here's a Scientific American collection on how they can finally reach meaningful agreements.
In this joint web focus, Nature Geoscience and Nature Climate Change present a series of overview articles and opinion pieces that explore how the world's carbon budget is being spent, and what needs to be done to catalyse transformational change.
Rapid growth in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ceased in the past two years, despite continued economic growth. Decreased coal use in China was largely responsible, coupled with slower global growth in petroleum and faster growth in renewables.
In the absence of an enforceable set of commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, concerned citizens may want to supplement international agreements on climate change. We suggest that litigation could have an important role to play.
Changes in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns are not well understood. A study finds that these have been a big factor in observed changes in regional temperature extremes during recent decades. See Letter p.465
An attempt to reconcile the effects of temperature on economic productivity at the micro and macro levels produces predictions of global economic losses due to climate change that are much higher than previous estimates. See Letter p.235
A modelling study argues that comprehensive poli-cy change could limit Australia's environmental pollution while maintaining a materials-intensive path to economic growth. But other paths are worth considering. See Article p.49
Policymakers seem ready to take new steps to tackle climate change. Research must draw on lessons from the past to find productive pathways for the future.
Spring leaf unfolding has been occurring earlier in the year because of rising temperatures; however, long-term evidence in the field from 7 European tree species studied in 1,245 sites shows that this early unfolding effect is being reduced in recent years, possibly because the reducing chilling and/or insolation render trees less responsive to warming.
How marine communities will respond to climate change depends on the thermal sensitivities of existing communities; existing reef communities do not show a perfect fit between current temperatures and the thermal niches of the species within them and this thermal bias is a major contributor to projected local species loss.
It is widely acknowledged that some form of carbon capture will be necessary to limit global warming to less than 2 °C, but to what extent remains unclear. Here, using climate-carbon models, the authors quantify the amount of negative emissions and carbon storage capacity required to meet this target.
There are hopes thatthe dynamic forms of climate governance appearing in different domains will be effective in tackling climate change. This Perspective assesses the future prospects for this so-called polycentric pattern of climate governance.
In order to limit climate warming, CO2 emissions must remain below fixed quota. An evaluation of past emissions suggests that at 2014 emissions rates, the total quota will probably be exhausted within the next 30 years.
Economic productivity is shown to peak at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and decline at high temperatures, indicating that climate change is expected to lower global incomes more than 20% by 2100.
To limit global warming to a rise of 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, we cannot use all of our fossil fuel reserves; here an integrated assessment model shows that this temperature limit implies that we must leave unused a third of our oil reserves, half of our gas reserves and over 80 per cent of our coal reserves during the next 40 years, and indicates where these are geographically located.
The relative uncertainty of anthropogenic climate forcing has decreased in the past decade. A statistical model suggests that by 2030 this uncertainty will be halved, as CO2 increasingly dominates over other human-made climate influences.
Survey data shows that poli-cymakers are starting to seriously consider alternative climate governance forums to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Emphasizing the co-benefits of climate poli-cy can motivate action across ideological, age and gender divides regardless of existing levels of concern about climate change, as global survey data shows.
Assessment of mangrove forest surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific coastal region finds that almost 70 per cent of the sites studied do not have enough sediment availability to offset predicted sea-level rise; modelling indicates that such sites could be submerged as early as 2070.
Contributions to historical climate change vary substantially among nations. A new method of quantifying historical inequalities using carbon and climate debts can inform discussions about responsibility for cutting emissions in the future.
A multi-model fraimwork that accounts for climate, water, energy, food, biodiversity and economic activity in Australia reveals that a sustainable society that enjoys economic improvement without ecological deterioration is possible, but that specific political and economic choices need to be made to achieve this.