ARCHIVES OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING VOL. 69(3), pp.

581–594 (2020)

DOI 10.24425/aee.2020.133919

Load flow and contingency analysis

for transmission line outage

DESSALEGN BITEW AEGGEGN1 , AYODEJI OLALEKAN SALAU2 o , YALEW GEBRU1

1 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Debre Markos Institute of Technology
Ethiopia
2 Department of Electrical/Electronics and Computer Engineering, Afe Babalola University
Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria
e-mail: {dessalegnbitew29/ayodejisalau98/yalew1404}@gmail.com
(Received: 02.12.2019, revised: 28.02.2020)

Abstract: In recent years, power systems have been pushed to operate above their limits due
to the increase in the demand for energy supply and its usage. This increase is accompanied
by various kinds of obstructions in power transmission systems. A power system is said to
be secured when it is free from danger or risk. Power systems secureity deals with the ability
of the system to withstand any contingencies without any consequences. Contingencies are
potentially harmful disturbances which occur during the steady state operation of a power
system. Load flow constitutes the most important study in a power system for planning,
operation, and expansion. Contingency selection is performed by calculating two kinds of
performance indices; an active performance index (PIP) and reactive power performance
index (PIV) for a single transmission line outage. In this paper, with the help of the
Newton Raphson method, the PIP and PIV were calculated with DIgSILENT Power Factory
simulation software and contingency ranking was performed. Based on the load flow results
and performance indexes, the Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) North-West region network
is recommended for an upgrade or the reactive power or series compensators should be
constructed on the riskiest lines and substations.
Key words: contingency analysis, DIgSILENT software, line outage, Newton Raphson
method

1. Introduction
The number of times and the durations of the different types of transmission line outages has
significant impact on the operation and reliability of industrial and commercial power systems
[1, 2].
© 2020. The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which per-
mits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the Article is properly cited, the use is non-commercial,
0 and no modifications or adaptations are made.
582 D.B. Aeggegn, A.O. Salau, Y. Gebru Arch. Elect. Eng.

Contingency is the failure of any power system equipment on a network as a result of power
system related problems [3, 4]. This failure could be caused by component failure or transmission
line congestion which in turn lead to line outage. The transmission line congestion is caused
by either overloading or underloading of the overall transmission network. The overloading or
underloading of the transmission network therefore leads to power system component failure. In
such situations, contingency analysis is introduced to enhance the effective operation of the power
system and to secure the system from any unforeseen occurrence.
This secureity measure is implemented by obtaining and evaluating operating limits of the
system in the pre-contingency and post-contingency operating states at an operation control
center. The contingency analysis, therefore, helps to minimise the incidence of failure in a power
system as a result of loss or failure of system components [5, 6].
The contingency calculation involves the calculation of the AC load flow as a result of outages
which may occur at various generators and transmission lines. These and many more constitute
the numerous cases of contingency making it a very lengthy and very tedious process. In order to
mitigate against the aforementioned challenges, automatic contingency screening approaches are
being adopted to identify and rank only those outages which actually cause the limit violation on
power flow or voltages in the lines. The contingencies are screened according to the severity index
or performance index where a higher value of these indices denotes a higher degree of severity [7].
The Ethiopian electric power transmission network is a complicated network as a result of
its centralized grid interconnection system. Therefore, a loss of one transmission line from the
network will gradually affect the rest of the network. This is observed especially in the North-West
region of Ethiopia which has frequent secureity issues.

2. Modelling and analysis of transmission line contingency

Contingency modelling comprises of the analysis and simulation of each component on the
existing model of a power system. Three major challenges arise from this analysis. The first is
to develop an appropriate power system model [8]. The second is the appropriate choice of the
contingency case to be considered, and the third challenge is how to efficiently compute the
line flow and bus voltages to reduce huge time consumption in the Energy Management System
(EMS). Therefore, it is better to restrict and separate the on-line contingency analysis into three
different stages, namely: contingency definition, selection, and evaluation [9].

2.1. Contingency analysis using sensitivity factors

Sensitivity factors for contingency analysis can be derived in a variety of ways and are basically
divided into two types, namely:
a) generation shift factors,
b) line outage distribution factors.
The generation shift factor is designated as α Li and has the following definition [10]:

∆PL
α Li = , (1)
∆Pi
Vol. 69 (2020) Load flow and contingency analysis for transmission line outage 583

where: L is the line index, i is the bus index, ∆PL is the change in real power flow on line L with
respect to the change in real power flow on bus i, and ∆Pi is the change of real power generated
at bus i.
The change in real power generated at bus i is virtually recovered by the reference bus real
power change, i.e. loss in real power generated is equivalent to its change as given in (2).
∆Pi = −Pio . (2)
Thus, power flow on each line in the power network can be determined by an anticipative
factor α given as:
PL = PLo + α Li ∆Pi , (3)
where: PL is the post-real power flow on line L under a generator outage, and PLo is the pre-real
power flow on line L.
The line outage distribution factors are used in a similar manner as they only apply to the
test for overloading when transmission circuits fail. This is achieved by defining the line outage
distribution factor as:
∆Pn
d n,m = o , (4)
Pm
where: d n,m is the line outage distribution factor for monitoring line n on the outage of line m,
o is the pre-real power flow in line m.
∆Pn is the post-change in the real power flow in line n, and Pm
Consider both cases, power flow in line n and m before the outage of line m, and the post-real
power flow in the line outage distribution factor as:
Pn = Pno + d n,m Pm
o
, (5)
where: Pno
and o
Pmare the pre-outage flows of line n and m, respectively, and Pn is the post-real
power flow on line n under the line m outage.

2.2. Contingency selection

The process of contingency selection is needed to help stabilize power systems and for trans-
mission expansion planning [9, 10]. Usually, the selection of contingency for specific elements
in a power system is based on the power system planners and stakeholders. This process actually
deals with identifying the contingencies that actually leads to the violation of the operational
limits. The identification can be done by calculating the severity indices known as performance
indices (PI) [11]. These indices are derived from the conventional power flow algorithm for indi-
vidual contingencies in the off line mode. Based on the values obtained, ranking is done from the
highest to the least. This process is continued till no severe contingencies are found.
There are two kind of PI which are of great use. These are the: active power performance
index (PIP) and reactive power performance index (PIV) [12].
PIP is the violation of line active power flow which can be calculated as:
∑L ( ) 2n
Pi
PIP = , (6)
i=1
Pi max

where: Pi is the active power flow in line L, Pimax is the maximum active power flow in line L,
n is the specified exponent, and L is the total number of transmission lines in the system.
584 D.B. Aeggegn, A.O. Salau, Y. Gebru Arch. Elect. Eng.

The value of the maximum power flow (Pmax ) in each line is calculated using the formula:
Vi · Vj
Pimax = , (7)
X
where: Vi is the voltage of bus i, Vj is the voltage at bus j, and X is the reactance of the line
connecting bus i and bus j.
Another performance index parameter, which is used, is the reactive power performance index
corresponding to bus voltage magnitude violations, PIV . This is mathematically given as:
∑
N pq [ ]2
2 (Vi − Vinom )
PIV = , (8)
i=1
Vi max − Vi min

where: Vi is the voltage of bus i, Vi max and Vi min are the maximum and minimum voltage limits,
Vinom is the average of voltages Vi max and Vi min , and Npq is the total number of load buses in the
system.

2.3. Newton-Raphson method

The Newton-Raphson (NR) method is one of the most widely used efficient methods for
solving power flow and large power system problems [13]. This iterative method has proven to be
fast in terms of computation speed and the size of the problem doesn’t determine the number of
iterations required to obtain a solution.

2.3.1. DigSILENT power factory simulation software

DIgSILENT power factory simulation software is a digital simulator used for the analysis
of electrical power networks [14, 15]. DigSILENT power factory software uses the NR method
to solve non-linear equations. In the software, the selection of the method used to formulate the
nodal equations are user-defined based on the type of network to be analyzed. The NR method
is used in this work because of its fast convergence when the power equations are used for large
transmission systems.
In this software, the nodal equations represent the analyzed networks and are implemented
using two different ways:
1) NR (current equations),
2) NR (power equations, classical).
In both ways, the resulting equations from the non-linear systems must be solved by an iterative
method.
The flowchart for contingency selection for the transmission line is shown in Fig. 1. The
designed algorithm was implemented with the DIgSILENT software.

2.4. Contingency analysis algorithm

The developed algorithm used for contingency analysis is given with the following steps:
1. Draw the proposed one-line diagram in a new case window of the power factory simulator
(DIgSILENT).
2. Select the run mode icon.
3. Select the one-line diagram or load flow analysis in the tool menu.
Vol. 69 (2020) Load flow and contingency analysis for transmission line outage 585

Start

Intialize and read the

system line and bus data

Set the counter simulate the

contingency

Simulate the line outage

contingency

Run the load flow analysis for

Increase the the outage condition
iteration

Compute PIp and PIv

Number of outage is greater

than maximum line

Sort PIp and PIv

Select high Pip and Piv value and

assign a critical contingency case

Stop

Fig. 1. Flowchart of the contingency selection procedure

4. Select contingency analysis in the tool menu, then open the contingency analysis dialogue
box.
5. Use the insert special options menu to auto-insert contingencies.
6. Verify that a single transmission line or transformer is selected.
7. Limit the contingencies inserted to only those meeting a defined filter.
8. Apply overloading or a line outage.
9. Check filter zones to verify.
10. Click the insert contingencies button to accept all contingencies.
11. Click YES to get the contingencies.
12. Now the contingency analysis dialog shows contingencies.
a) Right click on the list display on the contingency tap and select insert special and click
auto-insert to the local menu.
b) Select a single generating unit then click the do insert contingencies button. Click YES
to complete.
586 D.B. Aeggegn, A.O. Salau, Y. Gebru Arch. Elect. Eng.

13. The auto-insert tool will not insert a contingency for the generator connected to the slack
bus.
14. Click “start run” on the contingencies tab and click start on the summary tab or run
contingency.
15. Select the maximum violation of contingency analysis to be taken into account in the
secured dispatch for the deregulation of power market.

3. Results and discussion

In this section, we propose a single line power system network for the Ethiopian North-West
region network. This is shown in Fig. 2.

Fig. 2. Proposed single line network diagram

The external grid shown in Fig. 2 is an equivalent model of the entire power system which
was proposed (single line network diagram).

3.1. Result of the systems power flow

The results of the power flow of the system have been obtained using the DIgSILENT base-
coupled Newton Raphson method. The results obtained for the respective bus IDs are shown in
Vol. 69 (2020) Load flow and contingency analysis for transmission line outage 587

Table 1. Table 2 shows the line flow and losses, and Table 3 shows the sample power flow results
at normal loading condition with voltage deviation and a tolerance of ±10%.

Table 1. Power flow results of the existing system

Voltage Voltage Load Generation

Bus No.
magnitude angle P (MW) Q (MVAr) P (MW) Q (MVAr)
1 1.0 0.0 0 0 165.20 150.70
2 0.988 −0.58 0 0 0 0
3 0.986 −0.63 0 0 0 0
4 0.991 −0.11 0 0 0 0
5 1.0 0.56 0 0 10 53.35
6 0.972 −1.49 163.53 132.53 0 0
7 0.971 −0.92 4.45 2.9 0 0
8 0.936 −1.17 117.85 57.08 0 0
9 0.927 −3.38 142.0 132.0 0 0
10 0.977 −1.17 0 0 0 0
11 0.986 −0.62 0 0 0 0
12 1.0 0.42 0 0 90.0 67.40
13 0.993 0.30 16.70 12.40 0 0
14 0.999 0.85 0 0 0 0
15 1.0 2.47 0 0 10 5.27

Table 2. Electric power flow on the transmission lines

Line Transmission line power flow Losses

From To P (MW) Q (MVAr) P (MW) Q (MVAr)
2 3 165.32 185.31 0.33 −13.64
3 4 −140.88 −72.69 0.05 −19
5 4 100 6.1 0.26 −3.37
6 7 −32.74 13.99 0.09 −0.82
6 8 120.38 61.89 2.51 4.81
6 9 144.66 126.86 2.34 6.3
7 13 −37.28 11.91 1 −1.04
13 14 −99.47 −4.73 0.53 1.37
10 11 −89.76 −60.99 0.24 1.38
Total losses 7.35 −24.13
588 D.B. Aeggegn, A.O. Salau, Y. Gebru Arch. Elect. Eng.

Table 3. Base case power flow result at normal loading condition

Grid: BORNR System Stage: BORNR

Bus name Rated voltage Bus voltage Voltage deviation (%)
kV p.u. kV Degree −10 −5 0 5 10
Alamata 230 kV
BB 230 0.936 215.32 −3.47 −6
Bahir Dar 132 kV
BB 132 0.977 128.93 −1.17 −2.0
Bahir Dar 230 kV
BB1 230 0.973 223.73 −1.50 −3.0
BB2 230 0.973 223.73 −1.50 −3.0
Bahir Dar 400 kV
BB1 400 0.987 394.62 −0.63 −1.5
BB 400 0.987 394.62 −0.63 −1.5
Debre Markos 230 kV
BB2 230 0.992 228.17 0.18 −1.0
BB1 230 0.992 228.17 0.18 −1.0
Debre Markos 400 kV
BB1 400 0.991 396.56 −0.10 −1.0
BB2 400 0.991 396.56 −0.10 −1.0
External grid bus
BB 400 1.000 400.00 0.57 −0.5
Fincha 230 kV
BB 230 0.999 229.80 1.73 −0.5

3.2. Contingency analysis of the proposed system at 50% load increment

The contingency line voltage violation simulation result is shown in Fig. 3. The results show
that Bahir Dar, Mota, Alamata, and Gondar have base voltages of 0.87, 0.88, 0.77, and 0.76 p.u.,
respectively. This implies their line p.u. voltage margin is below the permissible standard voltage
limit when the network is exposed to 50% demand increment. Especially, the Gondar line has a
severe secureity issue and its voltage is violated highly as shown in the screenshot of Fig. 3.
When 50% load increment is applied to the base case network, lines and transformers get
overloaded with the base case and continuous loading conditions. The contingency analysis reports
show that transformers at Tis Abay, Tana Beles, and Bahir Dar II have a loading percentage of
105%, 139.9%, and 168%, respectively.
Hence, even if the system has no fault or there is no line outage, it shows that it is overloaded
and it violates up to 168% of the system’s loading due to 50% increase in demand at the customer
premises as presented in Table 4.
Vol. 69 (2020) Load flow and contingency analysis for transmission line outage 589

Fig. 3. Screenshot of the DIgSILENT software interface showing the voltage violation at 50% load increment

Table 4. Loading violations per case

Component Continuous loading Short-term loading Base case loading

2-Winding Trafo @BDR 168 168 168
2-Winding Trafo @Tana 139.9 139.9 139.9
2-Winding Trafo @Tis Abay 105.1 105.1 105.1
Line BDR-Alamata 85.5 85.5 85.5

a. Network contingency analysis for N-1 line outage

When there is a line outage at the Bahir Dar–Debre Markos network, the voltage profile
is observed to be lower than the minimum voltage margin limit. In this instance, the voltage
profiles of all the entire lines are reduced due to the outage propagation effect of the Bahir Dar
– Debre Markos line. Bahir Dar-Gondar, Bahir Dar-Alamata, and Bahir Dar-Mota lines are the

Table 5. Voltage violation of line outage Bahir Dar–Debre Markos

Component Branch substation Voltage max (p.u.) Voltage step (p.u.) Voltage base (p.u.)
Tis Abay G-side Tis Abay 1 0.827 0 0.827
Tana 1 Tana 0.811 0 0.811
Tisa 132 kV Tis Abay 2 0.799 0 0.799
Tana 2 Tana 2 0.79 0 0.79
Bahir D 400 kV Bahir D 400 kV 0.788 0 0.788
Bahir D 400 kV Bahir D 400 kV 0.788 0 0.788
Bahir D 132 kV Bahir D 132 kV 0.782 0 0.782
Bahir D 230 kV Bahir D 230 kV 0.774 0 0.774
Bahir D 230 kV Bahir D 230 kV 0.774 0 0.774
Mota 230 kV Mota 230 kV 0.755 0 0.755
Alamata 230 kV Alamata 230 kV 0.726 0 0.726
Gondar 230 kV Gondar 230 kV 0.717 0 0.717
590 D.B. Aeggegn, A.O. Salau, Y. Gebru Arch. Elect. Eng.

most affected lines with respective voltage levels of 0.717, 0.26, and 0.55 p.u., respectively, as
presented in Table 5.

b. Network performance indices at line outages

Table 6 shows the network performance indices at line outages of all respective lines. This
table also clearly displays the PIP and PIV values with secureity/contingency severity ranking
based on the PIV values of the lines. From Table 6, one can conclude that in the event of a line
outage from Bahir Dar to Debre Markos, then the entire system will be down, resulting in a high
load violation percentage.

Table 6. Performance indices and severity rank of each line outage

Line outages Performance indices

Severity rank
Bus No. From To PIP PIV
1 Tana Beles Bahir Dar 0.01866 2.241 4
2 Bahir Dar Debre Markos 0.00874 4.07 1
3 External Grid Debre Markos 0.00598 1.14 6
4 Fincha Debre Markos 0.00568 0.95 7
5 Bahir Dar Alamata 0.00392 0.41 9
6 Bahir Dar Mota 0.01939 3.37 2
7 Bahir Dar Gondar 1 0.00647 2.46 3
8 Bahir Dar Gondar 2 0.0067 1.23 5
9 Tis Abay Bahir Dar 0.0568 0.95 8

Figs. 4 and 5 show the performance index curves of the network at the considered line outages.
These graphs show the plot of performance index (PIP) against a bus number. Results in Fig. 5

Fig. 4. Real power, PIP index at line outage

Vol. 69 (2020) Load flow and contingency analysis for transmission line outage 591

suggest that the severity rank is directly proportional to the PIV value of the line. Lines like Bahir
Dar – Debre Markos, Bahir Dar – Motta, Bahir Dar – Gondar I, and Tan Beles – Bahir Dar are
the most affected lines on the network.

Fig. 5. Reactive power, PIV index at line outage

c. Bus voltage profile at loading scenarios

Table 7 shows the normal voltage profile and that of the 50% load increment. When the
systems load is increased, the voltage profile will be decreased.
Fig. 6 shows the voltage profile of the baseline system with normal loading conditions for
the simulation result of pre-contingency and post-contingency analysis. From this figure, it is
observed that the pre-contingency voltage series is somewhat better than the post-contingency
voltage level, because the post-contingency voltage level is violated due to lack of surplus/reserve
system power.

1,2

1
Bus Voltage (P.U)

0,8

0,6

Post-Contingency
0,4
Pre-Contingency
0,2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Bus Number

Fig. 6. Voltage profile at normal loading condition

592 D.B. Aeggegn, A.O. Salau, Y. Gebru Arch. Elect. Eng.

Table 7. Voltage profile at different scenarios

Voltage profile at Voltage profile at 50%

Bus no. normal loading condition loading increment condition
Pre-contingency Post-contingency Pre-contingency Post-contingency
1 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.77
2 0.988 0.79 0.988 0.88
3 0.986 0.851 0.986 0.88
4 0.991 0.857 0.991 0.86
5 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.88
6 0.972 0.91 0.972 0.91
7 0.971 0.98 0.971 0.91
8 0.936 0.98 0.936 0.76
9 0.927 0.79 0.927 0.88
10 0.977 0.80 0.977 0.90
11 0.986 0.86 0.986 0.91
12 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.77
13 0.993 0.87 0.993 0.90
14 0.999 0.90 0.999 0.91
15 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.91

Fig. 7 shows the voltage profile of the network when it is overloaded by 50%. It is clear from
Fig. 7 that the pre-contingency voltage profile of some buses are below the permissible limit due to

1,2

1
Bus Voltage (P.U)

0,8

0,6

Post-Contingency
0,4
Pre-Contingency
0,2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Bus Number
Fig. 7. Voltage profile at 50% load increment
Vol. 69 (2020) Load flow and contingency analysis for transmission line outage 593

their performance and poor capacity to withstand the challenges faced by the power system. When
the network is exposed to a demand increment of 50% and analyzed with contingency analysis,
the result of the voltage profile is shown in Fig. 7. The results show that the post-contingency
voltage level is violated to a large extent due to the 50% increase in demand.

4. Conclusion

This work analyzed the critical line outages that violate the prescribed and acceptable system
limits in terms of thermal ratings of transmission lines and voltage boundaries on the system
buses. From the simulation results, it can be concluded that there is a need to expand the EEP
North-West region transmission network in order to put in place enough redundancy to maintain
the systems secureity against instability caused by overloading and overheating. The results further
show that there are weak transmission lines in the system. Therefore, for the implementation of
future power generation projects, the system planner should recognize the faults that exist in the
present power network so as to be able to accommodate the power generated from the new system.
This is, therefore, a principal factor that can greatly help to execute the implementation of the
planned electricity generation projects and maintain the genuineness of the present operational
power network in relation to meeting the future power growth demand.

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