The updated SDO reflects a larger development area forecast during October for the Great Plains, Western Corn Belt, Ozarks, and Western Gulf Coast. Compared to the Seasonal Outlook released on September 19, improvement and removal is warranted for more of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Southeast due to heavy rainfall from Helene.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The updated SDO reflects a larger development area forecast during October for the Great Plains, Western Corn Belt, Ozarks, and Western Gulf Coast. Compared to the Seasonal Outlook released on September 19, improvement and removal is warranted for more of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Southeast due to heavy rainfall from Helene.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought coverage expanded and intensified across much of the Great Plains and Midwest during the summer and into the early fall. Based on the November-December-January (NDJ) outlook favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, additional drought development is forecast for the Southern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and portions of Southeast. Heavy rainfall, associated with Hurricane Helene, precludes a larger coverage of development across the Southeast. However, if La Niña becomes well-established by this winter, then more of the Southeast could have an increasing chance of development. Development is also favored for parts of the Southwest which is consistent with antecedent dryness and the NDJ outlook. A wet climatology along with a tilt towards above-normal precipitation from late October through the end of January support drought improvement or removal across the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West.



Drought persistence is likely throughout the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as these areas enter a dry time of year. Based on the NDJ outlook favoring above-normal precipitation, drought improvement or removal is forecast for most of Michigan. Improvement and removal are also expected across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians by the end of January, given the favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation during NDJ. Drought is anticipated to eventually end for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England during the next few months.



Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are likely to be nearly or completely drought-free at the end of January



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: November 21, 2024 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion