SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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440
ACUS01 KWNS 300048
SWODY1
SPC AC 300046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may occur early Wednesday morning across
parts of the southern/central Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough over the Rockies will continue to
progress eastward toward the Plains tonight. In advance of the
mid-level trough, broad surface lee troughing is taking place across
the central U.S., where an intense (50-60kt) low-level jet is
expected to develop, leading to ample northward low-level
warm-air/moisture advection through the remainder of the period.
Given the gradual approach of favorable upper-level support,
thunderstorm initiation has become more questionable before 12Z.
Nonetheless, thunder probabilities have been maintained in the event
that thunderstorms can develop atop a moist boundary layer.
A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions
of the TX Gulf Coast given onshore advection of rich low-level
moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/30/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

971
FLUS43 KLOT 300211 AAA
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
911 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-310215-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
911 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 /1011 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Elevated Fire Weather Risk.
Thursday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong and gusty winds from the south southwest are expected
Wednesday through Wednesday night. While relative humidities will
be higher, the gusty winds will result in another elevated fire
danger Wednesday afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-80.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. While the severe threat remains low, a few
could produce strong wind gusts.

Westerly winds gusting up to 45 mph are expected behind a cold
front on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-310215-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
911 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Gale force winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday and Thursday...
Gale force winds are expected.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

$$

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

408
ACUS02 KWNS 291742
SWODY2
SPC AC 291740

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday
across central portions of the country -- particularly from the
middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will
progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains
during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward
toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight.

At the surface, a cold front will initially extend
northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake
Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far
West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress
initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas
vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic
zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset.
From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the
trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly
eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois,
southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday
morning.

...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas...

As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across
the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near
the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a
moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the
front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread
northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This,
combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft,
will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the
morning and afternoon hours.

Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the
eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then
expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and
southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon.

In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving
(mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly
favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as
mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper
system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level
southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low.
The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in
speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will
support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at
least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the
Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with
risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind
potential.

Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk
should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms
should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with
time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois
overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the
overnight hours.

Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should
occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the
thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms,
the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma
and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms
should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the
initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least
some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into
Arkansas and East Texas with time.

..Goss.. 10/29/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

294
ACUS03 KWNS 291908
SWODY3
SPC AC 291906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and
afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East
Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper
Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday,
before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower
Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low
will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great
Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast,
while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower
Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning.

...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas...
A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend
from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to
eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by
limited/local risk for gusty winds.

As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited --
particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE
profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height
suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a
tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an
expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast
cycle.

Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the
daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over
southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward).

..Goss.. 10/29/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

249
WWUS83 KLOT 300204
RFWLOT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
904 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

ILZ013-014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-300315-
/O.EXP.KLOT.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-241030T0200Z/
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-
Iroquois-Ford-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
904 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 /1004 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Relative humidity levels will slowly rise through the night
though southerly winds will gust as high as 40 mph at times.

$$

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.